Well last week was a whole lot better as I creep back toward the midpoint. Home dogs were good to me with a 4-2 mark, but it is time to give up on the touchdown underdog theory, at least for this season. Teams favored by a touchdown or more are now 11-7-1 against the number. I think it has to do with some teams (Denver, Seattle, New Orleans) being that good, and some teams (Jacksonville, Giants, Eagles) being that bad. I started this week off strong taking the Browns as well as picking their defense up in almost every fantasy league I am in, so I think I can get back over .500.
TITANS +4 over Chiefs
After Jake Locker was deemed a no-go for the week, the line only moved half of a point with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. I think that the Titans are just not a team likely to get blown out, so I will take that it will be a close game.
Ravens +4 over DOLPHINS
I think Miami came back to Earth a bit Monday night, and the Ravens need this game to keep pace with the surging Browns. Joe Flacco will not play as horribly as he did last week, so I see him getting a strong performance for the victory.
RAMS -11 over Jaguars
I would buy this down to 10, so hold me to that number. I just do not think I can pick the Jaguars again after the awful performance last week, then trading their starting left tackle. Next week’s matchup with the Broncos should set an NFL spread record and look closer to an Alabama-Georgia State line.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS
I think either Amendola or Gronk comes back as Brady has started to click with the new guys throwing for 300 last week. I am seriously worried about my AFC champion pick after giving up a great game to Brian Hoyer last week.
COLTS +3.5 over Seahawks
The Seahawks missed covering last week by a half-point and I would not be surprised to see the same happen this week. Andrew Luck is the king of the backdoor cover, especially at home. Russell Wilson seems to be in a sophomore funk that is keeping Seattle from blowing the doors off people.
PACKERS -6.5 over Lions
In a vacuum, this line seems three points to high and I would take the value with Detroit. However, Green Bay is sitting at 1-2, and losing this game would put them THREE games back in the win column to the Lions as well as giving Detroit the inside track for the division by winning on the road. With the bye week of preparation, A-Rodg goes off and dusts Detroit.
BEARS PICK over Saints
Being put down as a “Pick ‘em” at home is basically the same as a home-dog. The Saints will be on a short week with travel (which they had to leave early, cutting into prep time because of a storm) and the Bears are one of the few teams that can match athletic DB’s/LB’s with the Saints offensive weapons. Forte has a HUGE day and runs for a buck fifty.
Eagles +3 over GIANTS
Until further notice, I will not be selecting the professional football team from New York that plays in the NFC.
Panthers -2.5 over CARDINALS
This line puzzles me… a 2-2 Arizona team is a home-underdog to a 1-2 Panthers team? Well Carolina lost by 6 points combined to Seattle and Buffalo, while destroying the hapless Giants. The Cardinals won by 7 points combined over a bad Tampa team and a hurt Lions team in week 2, while losing badly to the Saints and terrible Rams. I guess I will have to get away from the home-dog.
COWBOYS +10 (Yes, I found an online site with the 10 spot) over Broncos
Let me rant for a minute.. Why do I keep hearing people saying that the Cowboys need to: A. Run the ball more, especially against Denver as to keep the score lower; B. Throw the ball deep, because Tony Romo has become too conservative. First of all, those two things are not complementary. You do not want to just run, run, run, and then throw deep. It is putting your eggs all in one basket. Secondly, a lot of the people complaining about the lack of deep throws are probably the same that complain about Romo being too wild with the ball. For the record, I do want him to throw deep to Dez more, knowing full well there will be more turnovers. The risk/reward is what this team is built on so let him sling it. However, I want this because YOU ARE NOT SHUTTING DOWN THE BRONCOS. Period. So if they are going to score almost every possession, Dallas needs to try and do the same. That is not going to be running the ball. It will be by letting Romo let the ball fly, and not worrying about if he throws a couple of picks or not. They are trying to win, not keep it close. Give me Romo this week to have a huge day.
49ERS -6.5 over Texans
Houston could be turning on their beloved spare of a football team, burning Matt Schaub’s jersey in the process. The funny thing is, Schaub had one of his better days as a Texan. Yes he threw a back-breaking pick-six, but touchdowns after interceptions are random and luck. However, I think the pressure gets to him (figuratively and literally) and San Francisco romps.
RAIDERS +6 over Chargers
Terrelle Pryor is back this week and the Chargers defense is nothing special. Denarius Moore will get deep a couple of times and turn this game into a shootout. I will take the value of a close game for the home-dog.
FALCONS -10 over Jets
I really do not want to take the touchdown+ favorite, but the Falcons are in a bad way. They need this win even more than the Packers because this game has been checked off as a win for months. Matty Ice comes back strong from his bad decision making late last week, and Roddy White has a comeback party with 100 yards and a score.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Rams -1, Patriots +11, Packers/Lions OVER 41
Others I Like:
Cowboys/Broncos OVER 45, Rams/Jaguars UNDER 54, Packers +3.5, Falcons PICK, Saints/Bears OVER 37, Bears +10
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 31-33-3
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