So I think I have come to a revelation this week: winning an NFL game comes down to the same critical factor as fantasy football. Sadly, the critical factor in question is timely luck. I consider myself a pretty good fantasy football player; I have six teams and four of them have the most points in the league (by wide margins) and my other two have dealt with a lot of injuries, but are still middle of the pack. Yet, I know that the odds of me even winning one of these leagues is nothing more than a coin flip, let alone winning all four where I have the best team. Yes, the team that scores the most points is the best team in fantasy football, where the sole purpose is scoring points. However, the “best team” wins the league less than half of the time. Whether it’s bad seeding from tough matchups in the regular season, or having your one bad week during the first round of the playoffs, the best team is completely vulnerable.
Now in the NFL, it is impossible to qualify a single team as “the best”, because there are so many other factors than gaining points by yards/touchdowns/etc. Nevertheless, one can single down the league to a group of 5 or so (Bill Simmons uses 8, but I still feel like he did not have the Ravens in that 8 last year, or the Giants either time they won) teams that he or she would then think has the “best” within it. Yet who would have put Baltimore in their top-5 at the beginning of the playoffs last year? Hell, after the Super Bowl was over, I still would not have taken the Ravens if the same playoff situation was to start over. So how did they win? Rahim Moore making the biggest mistake a defensive back can make, Steven Ridley getting knocked out and fumbling, Colin Kaepernick’s pumpkin hitting midnight (I firmly believe that San Francisco wins the Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback, but getting past Green Bay would have been another story…), and a questionable no-call in the end zone that would have given the 49ers the lead late in the game. It took an obscene amount of luck at just the exact right time for them to win it all.
This is exactly how it is in fantasy football: you don’t have to have your best week points-wise to win, just better than the other guy. Now the big difference is in fantasy, your opponent has no bearing on whether you score or not (Team Defense against quarterback/running back/receiver withstanding). As I just referenced though, the Ravens benefitted from having an opponent to get lucky on their own bad misfortunes, just as a fantasy team can benefit from its opponent’s star running back going down in the first quarter. It is all about the luck of the matchup.
How did the NFL come to this? Since the salary cap was instituted and the Cowboys/49ers/Bills dominance of the early to mid-90’s ended, the NFL has become the epitome of parity. The expansion of teams and therefore talent, as well as the technological advances regarding scouting and injury recovery have made it even more of a level playing field. The only team to seem to buck the trend was New England, but lest you forget, they won two Super Bowls on long field goals, another playoff game to start the run on a questionable call followed by a field goal in a blizzard, and they were blatantly cheating for who knows how long. The same factors that equaled the playing field in real football, have done the same to fantasy. The internet and thousands of fantasy football experts on it have made getting advanced information easily and quickly accessible. This means with just 20 minutes worth of browsing, someone equals the research done for hours upon hours of his opponent.
There is no real answer to getting around the Timely Luck Factor (TLF). I developed a dynamic value-based drafting system that has led to by far the most complete and high-scoring teams in the five leagues that used snake drafts (the one not in first place saw my top FOUR picks, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Randall Cobb, and DeMarco Murray all miss serious time or play hurt in Rice’s case but is now on its way back up). Still, I doubt any one of the five runs away with a championship. There is just no way to predict if the team you happen to be playing in the playoffs will have the best week of his season that week. Just as there is no way to predict if the opposing team in the NFL will bring you timely luck with their own calamity.
So one can say that the Cowboys are, literally, a few plays away from being 9-1: the offense running a better play at the goal line against KC in a one-point loss, Terrance Williams fumbling at the goal line, the defense stopping Peyton Manning at all in a 3-point loss, and Tyron Smith not holding to stop the clock in a 1-point loss. Yet, they are also just as easily close to being 1-9: Eli throwing a pick-six late, Dwayne Harris taking advantage of Washington slacking on special teams, Nick Foles throwing an interception in the end zone, and Christian Ponder fumbling in his own end zone. So eight plays or so, can take a team from 9-1 to 1-9 and anywhere in between. Who on earth can honestly predict what this team will do next? This team is the most polarizing and extreme group in the league. No other team has such a wide range of variability. They could go 5-11 or 11-5 and win the Super Bowl. Nothing will surprise me anymore. I am going to stop trying to find reasoning behind Dallas, and try to enjoy the TLF that is sure to swing back their way soon after losing it for 18 years.
LIONS -6.5 over Buccaneers
The Lions gave one away last week and I think they bounce back strongly. The only thing making me want to pick Tampa, is I literally had the Add/Drop ready to go, just needed to hit confirm to start Mike Glennon over Matt Ryan as my Russell Wilson replacement. After last night, I’m sure I made the wrong call and Glennon will go off.
TEXANS-10 over Jaguars
Why would Vegas make the same mistake two weeks in a row about Houston being more than a touchdown favorite? Because Vegas knows and Vegas always wins. I think I may have been wrong on every single Jaguars’ game this season though, so do not trust me on this one.
Vikings +4.5 over PACKERS
Both teams got blown out last weekend, so we can’t go theory of opposites. Christian Ponder on the road seems equal to third stringer at home. Both teams are relying more on the run, so the cold weather should not have too much effect. I guess I will pick the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, especially since I need him to come up big. (I traded for him two weeks ago and he has not done much since. If I don’t win a 12-team league in which I have AP, Megatron, Forte, Reggie Bush and a choice of Andre Brown, Josh Gordon or T.Y. Hilton, then I might give up on Fantasy)
Chargers +5 over CHIEFS
Vegas has not given the Chiefs any respect, and even at home against a suddenly free-falling Chargers team they get put in the Vegas zone at 5. Just as the Denver game was screaming at you to take KC, this one seems to be doing the same. With that said, I will do the same and go against them since it worked out last week.
DOLPHINS +4.5 over Panthers
It’s a short week for Carolina, combined with travel and a lot of attention surrounding the controversial end of last week. All of that, plus with Tampa on deck at home next week, if Carolina wins they would probably end up with an 8-game winning streak going into New Orleans. This team does not seem good enough to win 8 in a row. I can’t find an exact stat, but I feel like there can’t be that many of those in NFL history. Upset of the week in a bounce back.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers
Opposite theory is strongly in play here, and it almost worries me that Vegas is on to it by making Cleveland the favorite. The Steelers looked good last week facing a terrible secondary. Now, Antonio Brown will have the best corner in the league on him, Joe Haden. Matthew Berry had the stat that: “Haden has now faced A.J. Green (twice), Torrey Smith (twice), Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson. In those six games, those wideouts averaged 48 yards and caught only one touchdown.” Quite impressive.
RAMS -1 over Bears
Zac Stacy may be the real deal and I may be regretting putting him in a package to get AP. St. Louis’ defense is really good as well. I also am not buying the bears, who are 3-4 in their last seven with wins over Green Bay when Rodgers got hurt, a weird win in OT over a struggling Baltimore team, and less than a touchdown at home over the Giants. Chicago just might not be that good.
Jets +3.5 over RAVENS
As I was saying, Baltimore is really struggling, even with Ray Rice going. Joe Flacco is playing like a guy who has over $100 million guaranteed with no fire, and the defense is a shell of last year’s. Geno Smith on the road sounds terrible but I am too lazy to go back and change it.
RAIDERS -1 over Titans
Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road sounds almost as bad as Geno Smith on the road, and I still think Terrelle Pryor has got something. Chris Johnson would have his best week of the year last week when I needed a win against him, and I doubt he really builds on his performance.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts
The quietest 6-4 team ever is getting the respect it deserves from Vegas. In my preseason preview I knew I should have picked them as my sleeper wild card team, but couldn’t find the balls to pull the trigger. If Carson Palmer takes care of the ball, they win this game, plain and simple. Their defense will get them a lead early, and only the dreaded Palmer TAINT will get Indy back in it.
Cowboys +3 over GIANTS
Almost every week I have picked against the Cowboys, even though I do not believe it is the right choice. This has not been good for my totals as they are the best team in the league against the number. After my revelation I am going to try and just enjoy my ‘Boys and pick it as I see it. Eli sucks, Romo is awesome. So I take the Cowboys for the win.
PATRIOTS +3 over Broncos
Peyton Manning is the greatest football player ever in my mind, but Bill Belicheat cheats. I also don’t like the shorter week after a tough prime time game in the cold, back out in the cold at night, for Peyton’s older arm.
REDSKINS +6 over 49ers
San Francisco has back to back long road trips, and I still am the first person that started the now-getting-crowded, “Collin Kaepernick is over-rated” bandwagon. The 49ers should not be giving almost a touchdown on the road to anyone. Washington does have the worst pass-defense in the league, but San Francisco’s passing offense is even worse in comparison.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Chiefs/Chargers UNDER 53, Broncos/Patriots OVER 42, Patriots +13
Others I Like:
Giants +7, Giants/Cowboys OVER 33.5, Lions +3.5, Vikings +14.5, Colts +12.5, Texans PK
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5-1Overall: 88-73-6
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