NFL Week 11 Picks

Falcons -1 over BUCCANEERS

With Bobby Rainey and Brian Leonard now starting at running back behind quarterback Mike Glennon, I just don’t see how anyone can pick this Tampa team to beat a team that is not in complete locker room disarray.  Roddy White comes back with a vengeance. 

BILLS -1 over Jets

E.J. Manuel should be coming back this week, and the Bills should be able to run on New York.  Rex Ryan can only hide Geno Smith’s limitations so much until his mistakes cause a Jets’ defeat.

STEELERS +3 over Lions

Just like the Giants, I (as well as everyone else, including fans of the teams) had these two left for dead too soon.  Now?  Both are two wins away from being tied for the division lead.  The world is not kind enough for the Steelers to lose this game.

EAGLES -4 over Redskins

Is Nick Foles for real?  I keep wanting to think that he is a product of going off in two games against two terrible teams (Raiders and Bucs) and getting very fortuitous against a decent team without the best player in the league.  I’ll ride him for one more week because I think RG3 has gotten found out as a one-hit wonder.

DOLPHINS +2 over Chargers

Theory of Opposites with Miami.  They looked atrocious last week against Tampa, but have now had a full week with their new lineman to work out the kinks.  It just seems like a complete sucker bet on the Chargers, so Miami rallies around their coach and gets the win.

Ravens +3.5 over BEARS

Josh McCown’s presence has actually pushed this line a point higher for the Bears.  LaDarius Webb hangs with Brandon Marshall and the Ravens get after McCown to cover.

Browns +6 over BENGALS

No Leon Hall, no Geno Atkins, Andy Dalton has turned into the spare we all thought he would be, and Marvin Jones’ pumpkin hit midnight.  Jason Campbell is surprisingly efficient since taking over, and Cleveland can smell the playoffs.  Upset of the week to make it four in a row.

Raiders +7 over TEXANS

This was the hardest game to pick of the week, especially because two major books had the number at 7, while one had it at Raiders -1.5.  Something might be amiss as I am writing this, so combine that with the fact that I do not think these two teams are that different and I’ll take the points.

JAGUARS +7.5 over Cardinals

Going against my philosophy that I do not think the Jags will win, but I feel even less certain that Arizona can blow anyone out.  Carson Palmer throws too many interceptions to sustain a big lead and Jacksonville is forgetting their goal of the number-one pick.

BRONCOS -8 over Chiefs

Do you know what that 8-number is begging you to do?  Get more than a touchdown with a 9-0 team?  Sucker-bet.  The Chiefs will try to bring the pressure on a gimpy Manning, but don’t you think he knows that?  Wes Welker and Julius Thomas have gigantic days as they catch short hot routes over the middle and turn them into big gains.

Vikings +13 over SEAHAWKS

As good as the Seattle pass defense is, the rush defense has been rather paltry.  Adrian Peterson should have a field day and keep this game within two touchdowns.

49ers +3.5 over SAINTS

People are over-rating the Saints’ big win Sunday, and under-rating how good the Panthers were in destroying San Francisco.  Harbaugh brings his team back with a vengeance and lost in Sunday night’s massacre was the Cowboys ran the ball somewhat well.  Gore and Kaepernick should have big days on the ground.

Packers +6 over GIANTS

Scott Tolzien looked surprisingly competent last week with really good arm strength.  A week of first team reps will do him well and Eli will throw a couple more league leading interceptions.  This may be more of a hope that Dallas does not play New York with first place on the line. Gulp.

PANTHERS -2.5 over Patriots

You can run on the Patriots without Vince Wilfork in the middle, and running is what this Carolina team does best.  With Jonathan Stewart back, the Panthers have four legitimate rushing options to grind out long drives and keep Brady off the field.  Carolina keeps rolling.

Bonus College Parlay:

Baylor -27 over Tech; Baylor/Tech OVER 86

Trust me.  Seriously, just trust me.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Broncos +2, Eagles/Redskins OVER 34, Bills +9

Others I Like:

Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 61, Packers +16, Vikings +23, Browns +16, Panthers +7.5, Falcons +9

This Week: 0-0-1

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 79-68-5