A little over a year ago, on this very blog, I wrote about the imminent emergence of Roy Hibbert and how I would much rather have him for the next few years rather than Tyson Chandler. People laughed at that, but they are eating too much crow to be named right now. Hibbert put up 16 points, over 10 rebounds and 3 blocks a game compared to Chandler’s 6/6/1.5 over their series, including a series closer of Hibbert throwing up a 21/12/5 while holding Tyson to 2(TWO!!)/6/0. Yes Hibbert was restricted, so the Pacers could have matched anything the Mavs’ could have offered, but you never know if Hibbert could have put pressure to come play with Dirk.
A couple of months later, I wrote about my excitement about the Mavs’ pieced together roster. This is where I look completely wrong as I predicted a 3-5 seed and Dallas missed the playoffs for the first time this century. However, I still stand by that the 2012/2013 Mavericks’ team was much better than anyone realized. I think if Dirk is not himself for half the season in any of these past 10 seasons then Dallas has a tough time making the playoffs. But from the point the Mavericks hit 13-23, they then finished the season 28-18, or know the equivalent of a 50-win team putting them right in the middle of the Western Conference Playoffs. I did overestimate the effectiveness of Collison as a starting point guard, but should Dirk have been completely healthy from the start, that team would be remembered far differently.
Now let’s get to what the Mavericks’ next move is. I am not even going to talk about the possibility of getting Chris Paul AND Dwight Howard, as that is a pipe dream that would take a huge discount by both and some serious sign and trades. Even if it could be done, it would be the obvious choice. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at what the Mavs could do.
(All of these options include re-signing O.J. Mayo to a longer contract for about the same salary, because I see keeping Mayo is a MUST for this Dallas team)
OPTION 1: Sign Chris Paul
With the recent development that Paul is quite unhappy with being the de facto executioner for Vinny Del Negro’s employment; the realization that the Mavericks could get him is starting to sink in. The only teams with enough space to sign him to the max and are an even somewhat intriguing option are: Dallas, the Clippers, Houston, Utah and Atlanta. Houston has a few quality guards already and will be looking to get Howard, so they are effectively out (unless they can pull the Jedi Mind trick sign-and-trades to get both, in which case we would have a new favorite for the 2014 title). The Jazz are in a state of flux with only five guys signed for next season, and both leading scorers likely to leave so I doubt Paul even considers them. That leaves returning to the Clippers, or jumping to the Mavericks or Hawks. The Hawks are only in play if they can lure Dwight, and even then the core of Howard/Horford/Paul is a great starting point, but there would be no money left over for wing players. As we just saw with the Heat and Pacers, wing play/defense is a must-have to win. Anyway, everything I have season points that Dwight does not want to play in Atlanta, so that takes them out of the running.
So in my mind, I see only two options for Paul: Dallas or the Clippers. Los Angeles obviously has a younger, more hyped core, but are they really that much better than Dallas? Blake Griffin has not progressed much since entering the league, especially on the offensive end. DeAndre Jordan has actually taken steps back in his progression. Caron Butler is a shell of the player he used to be. I watched this team go toe-to-toe with the Mavericks, and it was completely the Chris Paul show: he had to do everything on his own (much like Dirk was doing for the Mavs). That game is what leads me to believe that Paul wants to come play with Dirk. Their pick-and-pop game would be unstoppable, and Paul would not have to worry about the other team just fouling his power-forward down the stretch to get the ball back.
Option 1A: Sign Paul, draft a center
Okay, so Dallas theoretically has Chris Paul in the bag, but a center is still needed. They have the 13th pick in possibly the weakest draft in 20 years, but there will be a couple of defensive centers on the board still. Dirk works best with a shot-blocking presence next to him, and Gorgui Deng from Louisville and Jeff Withey out of Kansas can both provide that. There is also Steven Adams out of Pittsburgh, who is raw but has tons of upside. All three of these guys are unrefined on the offensive end, but have the potential to flourish especially if Chris Paul was guiding them and Dirk was taking double teams away from them. Personally, I would take Steven Adams: a legit 7-footer with enough bulk to handle the Roy Hibbert/Dwight Howards and an intriguing mid-range jumper.
Option 1B: Sign Paul, sign a free agent center
This is where it gets tricky, salary wise. It would take a little maneuvering, including trading the 13th pick to create enough salary space for a max Paul contract as well as another mid-range deal. While I would love for Dallas to sign both Paul and Pekovic/Okafor, the price tag to get them would probably be too much. The more likely options fall to Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert or Andray Blatche. None of them seem that enticing to me.
Option 2: Sign Dwight Howard
Every day that goes by this seems less and less like a realistic possibility as well as continuing to strengthen the Rockets’ case to sign him. However, should Cuban/Donnie pull the rabbit out of the hat and land Howard, they would be a starting point guard away from contending. Howard may see that too, and with the point guards that could be there in the draft or even in free agency, the situation might entice him up I-45 to Dallas.
Option 2A: Sign Howard, draft a point guard
Marcus Smart and the other tops guards that stayed in school really screwed the Mavericks over. Should Smart have come out, that would have pushed the other point guards back into a situation where Try Burke would have most likely slipped to Dallas. Nonetheless, it is looking like Michael Carter-Williams from Syracuse will be available at 13. Carter-Williams is a tall/long point guard that carried an otherwise subpar Orange team to the Final Four. His shot could use some work, but in the context of this scenario with Dirk/Dwight/Marion/Mayo, Carter-Williams’ outside shot would not need to be relied upon. The other point guard option that has been floated is the German Dennis Schroeder. He has been compared to Tony Parker for more reasons than being European, so if Donnie sees the same in him then he could be the choice. I have not seen enough of Schroeder to make an educated opinion, so I would have to lean towards Carter-Williams.
Option 2B: Sign Howard, sigh a free agent point guard
There are really own two intriguing names out there at point guard outside of Chris Paul: Aaron Brooks and Brandon Jennings. Now Brooks might take the less money that would be necessary to fit both he and Dwight, but he is restricted and the salary could, and probably would be matched at the lower level. Jennings on the other hand, is a complicated situation. He thinks quite highly of himself and has said he believes he deserves max money. However I do not think any of the teams with enough space would give him a max deal. Once he realizes that, he could also realize that to get his money, he will need to take less at first, and jump into a good situation… oh you know like playing with Dwight Howard and Dirk Nowitzki. If the Mavs could work out the salaries to sign both Howard/Jennings then it should definitely be done above almost all other options.
Option 3: Sign Andrew Bynum
After missing the entire season due to different and weird ailments, Bynum will most likely not get a max deal anywhere. Should the Mavericks strike out on both Howard and Paul, the landing spots for Bynum to get anywhere near the max will dwindle and leave Dallas as the most likely suitor. Now I know he has his quirks and injury history, but he proved in the 2010 Finals that he can be a top-3 center and top-20 player when healthy. The problem would be that he would need a strong point guard influence to keep his head straight, and a rookie would not be the answer. If Bynum is the choice, the Mavs could work a sign and trade with their 1st round pick to bring in a Jose Calderon or Jarrett Jack, guys who are strong floor leaders.
Option 4: Sign near-max level free agents, draft best player available
This is by far the least “sexy” of any of the options, but the most likely for sure. I think it starts and ends with Nikola Pekovic. He is probably the most under-rated player by the masses in the entire league. He averaged over 16 points, 9 rebounds and a block a game while playing just over 30 minutes a night. Should he get a full share of minutes, his numbers equate to almost 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game. He is only 27, has the size (6’11’’, 290) and protects the rim. Now he is a restricted free agent and the Timberwolves can match, but if the offer is in the 8-figure range they most likely will not. They know they are about to have to pay Rubio and Love and they are not a team that will go far and away above the tax threshold. So if the Mavs left the other teams with space max out with big men Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Emeka Okafor and Andrew Bynum, Dallas could snipe Pekovic for a better deal. This would also allow Dallas to sign an $8-10 million point guard, such as Brandon Jennings. With Jennings-Mayo-Marion/Crowder-Dirk-Pekovic, the Mavericks could then draft the best player available and not have to worry about getting a starter or even a sixth man. So they could get Michael Carter-Williams for the bigger point guards, Steven Adams as a project big man, C.J. McCollum or Tim Hardaway Jr. as a microwave bench scorer, or even take a shot on Tony Mitchell.
Option Blasphemy: Trade Dirk
I would never want this. Ever. BUT… I mean you can maneuver the salary dumping, and add first round picks from Indiana to Dallas, but if the Mavs could get Granger, a 25 ppg scorer just a season ago, and the Pacers can get a stretch four that they desperately need, who would say no? Dallas could extend Granger for less than the max coming off of an injury, so they would be able to explore all sorts of different options previously mentioned with signing a big name. They could go get Pekovic, move Marion to the 4 and draft a point guard, all the while keeping some space for 2014. Hell, they might even be able to lure Paul or Howard easier with Granger than Dirk, and then follow through with the previous options. As much as I do not think nor want it to ever happen, trading Dirk might be the best option for Dallas.
My Choice:
When I started writing this, I thought for sure a Chris Paul option would be my choice as the best route, but I have come around on the fourth one and here is the reason why: the Mavericks have ZERO dollars guaranteed for the 2014-2015 season. Zero. So let’s say that Dirk/Marion/Mayo work out longer deals, but for less money, holding about a $20 million cap hold for that year (reasonable value, since Dirk said he will take significantly less, Marion can’t get much more, and Mayo tailed off at the end of the year). Then you sign a couple of $10 million a year free agents, with cap holds you get to about $42 million on for that Summer or the equivalent to have a starting five in place with enough cap room to sign a max free agent in the biggest free agent class ever including Luol Deng, Andrew Bogut, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant (don’t think he won’t consider leaving if Howard is gone), Zach Randolph, Marcin Gortat, DeMarcus Cousins, and player opt outs for Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and LeBron James. If the Mavs could offer LeBron (who IS leaving Miami after next year, unless they trade Bosh for some young pieces) the lineup mentioned with Pekovic, Jennings or a promising young point guard and a gracefully aging Dirk shooting jumpers, they might have a slim chance at landing him. And let’s not kid ourselves; whoever has LeBron has the best chance to win it all.
what about Greg Oden?
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