Last year,
I had quite a good perception on the way The Finals would go. I figured that one of the none-Big 3 Heat
would swing a crucial game with a string of threes, and Mike Miller did just
that. I also figured that LeBron James
would do all sorts of LeBron James things and Kevin Durant could not match
up. It took some luck, as the two teams
were such unknown quantities. This year
is a much different story with two teams that have been here before and know
who they are.
Before
I get to picking someone to win, I like many other Mavericks’ fans am in a big
of a quandary. These are Dallas’ biggest
two rivals of the Dirk era. I mean, if
not for these two teams I firmly believe Dirk has three, maybe four rings on
his hand right now (side note: the 2002-2003 Mavericks get forgotten and might
have been their best team with Dirk and Nash/Finley/Van Exel all in their
prime, and were about to go up 2-1 with home court on the Spurs in the
conference finals when Dirk hurt his knee).
So who should we want to win?
Some people choose the route that the “Spurs are a Texas/Western
Conference team so we should root for them.”
As I have
previously stated I refuse to root for my biggest rival based on
affiliation. So what to do?
I broke
it down in two ways. First, I hate the
Spurs more than the Heat. When compared,
I do dislike Wade more than Duncan, but I DEFINITELY hate Ginobili and Parker
more than LeBron and Bosh. I do not want
to just be a hater, so I kept looking. Secondly,
Spurs’ fans have every type of bragging rights over Dallas fans except for two
(should the Heat win): the Mavs’ have won a title more recently, and Dirk was
able to overcome the great Miami LeBrons and the Spurs haven’t. So for those reasons, I will not say I am
rooting for the Heat, but I hate them a little less than San Antonio. Hopefully, a steroid scandal breaks and both
teams are disqualified from the league.
As for
the actual basketball, this is the matchup that the Spurs wanted, without a
doubt. Zach Lowe from Grantland wrote
that he thought San Antonio was actually rooting for Miami to beat
Indiana. I thought that was indiocracy
until I delved deeper into the numbers. The
Spurs have a prevalent mistaken identity that they are a big, physical team
that rebounds well and plays good half court defense. In reality, San Antonio plays quite similarly
to Miami.
The
Heat and Spurs were 6th and 7th in the league in
3-pointers attempted while being 1st and 2nd in
percentage, respectively. Both coaching
staffs are part of the advanced metrics portion of the NBA that values the
corner-3 above every other shot outside of the paint. Because of the high amount of threes taken,
both teams are in the bottom third in rebounding. While Miami is last in total rebounding,
their differential is actually 18, one spot behind the Spurs, and that shows a
more accurate picture of their rebounding.
The
biggest perceived difference would be Tim Duncan to LeBron James as the center
of the offense. However, the two play a
point role in the post in almost the same exact way. By looking at their shot charts on Fan
Graphs, you can see that Duncan and James operate extensively from the same
spot between the block and the wing.
Duncan has his little 18-foot bank shot and LeBron goes to either his
fadeway or takes it to the rack. Neither
team really plays “big” like the Pacers or Grizzlies, and the Spurs actually
gave up almost two points more a game than the Heat.
So with
no clear favorite from the overall numbers, let’s look at the individual
matchups. There is another misconception
that the Spurs have the advantage here because Bosh cannot guard Tim
Duncan. Well who on the planet can guard
LeBron? In Game 7 of the Pacers series,
the Heat started doubling down on Hibbert and caused havoc with their superb
rotations. Now Duncan is a much better
passer than Hibbert and the Spurs are better 3-point shooters, but I suspect
that Spoelstra will employ this tactic extensively. The real decision will be who LeBron will
guard. He can be put on Leonard to save
his energy for the offensive end and allow for more help opportunities or he
can check Parker to try and neutralize the quick Frenchmen. I would have to say that putting James on
Parker, Wade on Ginobili, and Chalmers/Battier/Miller on Green/Neal/Leonard
will be Miami’s best option.
The
Spurs on the other hand will have to stick almost exclusively to Kawhi guarding
LeBron. Neal and Green are not big
enough or near physical enough to handle the 6’9’’ 275 pound frame of
James. He would destroy both on the
block and might even do the same to Leonard without help from
Duncan/Splitter. Tiago Splitter is not
nearly the inside shot-blocking presence that Roy Hibbert is, so I imagine the
Heat will be much more assertive in driving the ball to the hoop.
The
Bench is where there is the most distinct advantage. With Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis
and Mike Miller, the Heat have possibly the best sharp shooting bench in the
history of the game. Throw in the added
enthusiasms and bursts of energy that are Norris Cole and Chris Anderson, and
the bench unit for Miami has a clear advantage over the slow Spurs’ second
unit. Not to mention that Cole can be
used to pester Parker and Anderson to get under Duncan’s skin to help out with
Bosh/LeBron’s defensive assignments.
In
reality, both teams would rather play each other than the vanquished foes in
the conference finals. They both play
the same up-tempo, jack it up style of offense.
The Spurs rely on a constant symphony of ball movement while Miami
relies on the athleticism and playmaking ability of its superstars. I really think that Ray Allen could (should)
be the X-factor in the series. He can
get significant run by being hidden on defense guarding 3-point shooters
something that will be drastically different to the athletic wings of Indiana. He had been cold until the end of the Indiana
series, so I think he will stay hot and turn a game or two. However, Duncan is 4-0 in The Finals for a
reason and Parker is playing as well as almost anyone right now. San Antonio also has a clear coaching
advantage which can be exploited just as Carlisle did in ’11. The Spurs even have the non-home court
advantage of having to only steal one of the first two games then being able to
close out at home in the 2-3-2 format.
With
all that said, I really could have made this entire preview/prediction in one
single sentence: Miami has LeBron and San Antonio does not. Heat
in 6
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