Friday, September 23, 2016

NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 2 was very profitable for both The Opposite Theory as well as me. TOT and myself each finished five units up, which in a single week at $100 a game is nearly a $500 profit after vig.
This week there are a few massive lines, a few home underdogs, and many rookie quarterbacks starting. Don’t always bet against the rookie signal caller. The line is already adjusted for them, usually.
Nevertheless, let’s get to picking.
WEEK 3 PICKS
Texans PK over PATRIOTS
Like I just said, the line is already adjusted enough. Can we talk about how the Patriots are now 14-5 without Brady since his first start? When will people start to realize that Belichick is more responsible for New England’s success rather than Brady?
BENGALS -3 over Broncos
The first TOT game of the week, and I like the Bengals anyway. Cincinnati is 19-4-1 in their last 24 home games straight up. They are coming off back-to-back road games against probable playoff teams. They also need this game more than the 2-0 Broncos.
Raiders PK over TITANS
TOT game number 2. There will definitely be games that I won’t be a slave to the theory, but in the beginning of the season I think it is strongest. Throw in the fact that neither of these defenses are that good, and I think Oakland’s offense has more firepower.
BILLS +3.5 over Cardinals
TOT. Home Dog. West coast team traveling and playing at noon. Too many theories to go against the Bills. I love the hook, and will probably buy it to 4.
JAGUARS +1 over Ravens
Baltimore is 2-0 and Jacksonville is 0-2. That is the reason for the line being this way. If this was the first game of the year, I would say Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite. Baltimore has beaten possibly the two worst teams in the league, while Jacksonville has lost to two of the best offenses. Sprinkle a little TOT game into it and I love the Jags this week.
Browns +10 over DOLPHINS
Miami looked pretty bad last week against New England until Garapollo was injured. Now I know Cody Kessler does not invoke fear into defenses’ hearts, but I think Isaiah Crowell will ground and pound this game into a slug fest that stays close.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS

Are the Giants a 3-0 quality team? Will Kirk Cousins miss as many wide open receivers as he has the first two games? I’m not sure about either one, but I can see them continuing. However, there are just some games that teams NEED more than others. If Washington loses, they will be 0-3 and in effect 4 games behind the Giants three weeks into the season. It’s the closest thing to a must win in Week 3.
PACKERS -7 over Lions
Ever since the wild and crazy Week 17 game in which Matt Stafford threw for 520 yards against the Matt Flynn-led Packers, Stafford has not reached the 266-yard mark in Green Bay. Throw in the fact that everyone is knee-jerking over the Packers not looking too strong in the first couple of weeks, and I think Aaron Rodgers shuts everyone up.
Vikings +7 over PANTHERS
I doubted the Vikings the first two weeks and refuse to keep doing it. Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner have found the type of game plan to utilize Sam Bradford in an efficient and proficient way. Even with no Adrian Peterson (DAMN YOU FANTASY GODS!!!!!) they will find a way to compete.
SEAHAWKS -9.5 over 49ers
As competent as Blaine Gabbert has been I just refuse to take him IN Seattle. Can’t do it.
BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams
This game is the epitome of The Opposite Theory. The Bucs got destroyed by Arizona last week, but there were a lot of unlucky bounces. Los Angeles pulled out the upset over Seattle in their first regular season game in LA since 1994. I think the emotion and circumstance, along with a couple of timely fumbles helped the Rams. Tampa is just a better team, by at least a touchdown at home.
EAGLES +3.5 over Steelers
I hate how strong Carson Wentz has started. Honestly, it should have been easy to know: Cleveland passed on him. If the Browns take a QB, he will bust. If they pass on him (Ben Roethlisberger, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, etc.) they end up being good. This feels like a high-scoring, last possession game, so I’ll take the points.
CHIEFS -3 over Jets

Kansas City qualifies for TOT after losing to Houston last week. A hobbled Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte coming off of a career high in carries and touches, and Arrowhead rocking all strengthen TOT for this game.
COLTS -2 over Chargers
We have another TOT game, but this is similar to Washington’s situation. Indy has to win this game to stay out of an 0-3 hole. At some point the skill position injuries will slow down San Diego (DAMN YOU FANTASY GODS!!!!!!!! I have one team that has Adrian Peterson, Keenan Allen, and Danny Woodhead).
Bears +7.5 over COWBOYS
In our 7th and last TOT game of the week, I’m going with the backup quarterback in Dallas. The Cowboys have a losing record at home since The Death Star opened, and a winning record on the road. Part of the problem is a 2-12 home record without Tony Romo. Brian Hoyer is not much of a downgrade from Jay Cutler, and I think the Bears keep this a one score game.
Falcons +3.5 over SAINTS
This is one of those games where zero defense will be played. I think it will be similar to the Texas Tech/Texas game of last season, where it will be a last score game. Give me the points.

Best Bets: 3-3
Falcons/Saints OVER 53, Buccaneers -5.5, and Raiders PK

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 5-1
Saints/Falcons OVER 43, Bears +17, Browns +20

Others I Like: 12-0
Raiders +10, Jaguars +11, Chiefs +7, Seahawks/49ers UNDER 52, Raiders/Titans OVER 36.5, Packers +3

This Week : 0-1
Last Week : 10-5-1
Season : 19-13-1

TOT : 7-2


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