NFL Week 1 Picks and Pre-Season Predictions

And I’m back!! I know it hit a lull last season with my picks, but I promise to update each week this season. I took on a Senior writing position at So-Called Fantasy Experts and you can view all of my Fantasy Football advice here.

I will have three weekly articles: RB rankings reactions, Start/Sit, and a Sunday morning game preview. Please check them out each week.

This space will be strictly for gambling purposes. I will give you my picks for every NFL game against the spread, along with a best bet and a teaser. I’ll also give you some pre-season predictions, because I mean who doesn’t love those?

Let’s get started shall we!

AFC

East	Wins	Losses
New England	11	5
N.Y. Jets	8	8
Buffalo	7	9
Miami	6	10

Even with Brady’s suspension, the rest of the division is just not good enough. The Jets played about as well as they could last season, and still couldn’t touch the Patriots. They bring the same team back and are due for some regression.

Tyrod Taylor might have something, but the defense has taken a step back. I had a lot of Ryan Tannehill shares in Fantasy Football last season that all went to waste.

North	Wins	Losses
Pittsburgh	11	5
Cincinnati	9	7
Baltimore	9	7
Cleveland	4	12

As it is every year, the AFC North is the hardest division to predict. I am going with the Steelers because I think the Hue Jackson loss will hurt the Bengals more than people think. Pittsburgh still has easily the best QB, RB, and WR in the division, and their defense has gotten slightly better.

I think Baltimore bounces back, but not quite enough to make the playoffs. Cleveland’s offense will be Fantasy worthy this season, but their defense is still trash.

South	Wins	Losses
Indianapolis	9	7
Houston	9	7
Jacksonville	7	9
Tennessee	5	11

This could sway very easily if Andrew Luck cannot stay on the field again. If he does, I think they edge out the Texans for the division title. Jacksonville is lurking, but I think they are a year away from their defense being ready.

Tennessee’s exotic smash-mouth will be worth watching and betting the under on. However, the same theme as the last few teams their defense is not strong enough to really contend.

West	Wins	Losses
Chiefs	9	7
Broncos	9	7
Raiders	8	8
Chargers	6	10

Even with the win last night, I'm thinking Kansas City pulls out the division. The quarterback issues will be there for Denver.  Oakland will knock on the door of the post-season, but come up just short.

NFC

East	Wins	Losses
Giants	9	7
Redskins	8	8
Cowboys	8	8
Eagles	5	11

This division race could be decided in the first week of the season. If Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can pull out the win Sunday, then I think they end up as the division champs by way of an easy schedule. I don’t think that will happen though, so I’m siding with the Giants by default.

Kirk Cousins is not that good, and he will be found out this season. I have said this before about other quarterbacks such as Robert Griffin and Collin Kaepernick, so I think I’ll make the trifecta. The Eagles still suck and start Carson Wentz.

North	Wins	Losses
Packers	12	4
Lions	8	8
Vikings	8	8
Bears	6	10

Probably the easiest division to predict, even before Bridgewater’s injury. None of these teams can match up with a full-strength Packers’ squad, and even with the massive injuries last year Green Bay was really the best team.

I think Detroit will be better this season. Megatron will not be missed as much with Marvin Jones coming over and Matthew Stafford should be a better quarterback not focusing in on Calvin Johnson non-stop. Chicago just signed their whole offensive line off of cuts, so Jay Cutler will need a body bag.

South	Wins	Losses
Panthers	11	5
Falcons	8	8
Buccaneers	7	9
Saints	7	9

The Falcons were one of my surprise teams last year and they came out the gate firing. The problem I didn’t forsee is just how awful their defense was. They are still a wild card contender, due to the quarterback injuries with other teams.

The Buccaneers are a year away, and might have been closer had they not taken a kicker in the second round that has the yips. Drew Brees will drag the Saints to 6-7 wins, but no more.

West	Wins	Losses
Seahawks	11	5
Cardinals	11	5
Rams	7	9
49ers	3	13

Everrryyonnnnee is in on the Cardinals this year, which leads me to think Seattle will win the division. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last year in that playoff game, and he’s not certain to come back mentally from that. The Seahawks found something with their high-flying passing offense at the end of last season, and I think they continue.

The Rams look to be mediocre as always after they drafted a quarterback first overall that can’t even play his way into the backup role. The 49ers are probably the least talented and worst team in the league. Enter Deshaun Watson.

Playoffs

Wild Card

Indianapolis over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Denver

Arizona over N.Y. Giants, Carolina over Detroit

Divisional

New England over Indianapolis, Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Green Bay over Arizona, Seattle over Carolina

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl LI

Green Bay 27 – Pittsburgh 21

Super Bowl MVP

Aaron Rodgers

Regular Season MVP

Aaron Rodgers

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Ezekiel Elliott

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Myles Jack

Week 1 Picks

Panthers -3 over BRONCOS

I gave out this pick last night to start my season on a losing note! But I will usually Tweet my Thursday pick, so follow me for it, @Tomlin3 .

Buccaneers +2.5 over FALCONS

Jameis starts the year strong against the terrible Falcons’ defense.

TITANS +2.5 over Vikings

I’ll take a home dog against a backup quarterback.

Browns +3.5 over EAGLES

RG3 against Carson Wentz… I’ll take the points.

JETS +2.5 over Bengals

The absence of Hue Jackson will take Cincy some getting used to.

Raiders +1.5 over SAINTS

Oakland is just a flat-out better team than New Orleans, and this line should be switched.

Chargers +7 over CHIEFS

I like Kansas City this year, but that’s too many points for back-door cover Philip Rivers.

Bills +3 over RAVENS

The questions in the Baltimore backfield have me worried to start the year, but it will get figured out.

Bears +6 over TEXANS

This line just feels a few points too high. It should be a low-scoring game, so I’ll take the value.

JAGUARS +5 over Packers

Blake Bortles is king of the garbage time, and I think he sneaks in a cover here.

Dolphins +10 over SEAHAWKS

This feels like that Week 1 game that could kill thousands of elimination/survivor pools.

COWBOYS PK over Giants

In Dak we trust…. I think.

Lions +3 over COLTS

I have the Lions contending for a playoff spot, and this would be a huge win towards that.

Patriots +7 over CARDINALS

I’ll take points with Bill Belichick no matter who is playing quarterback.

REDSKINS +3 over Steelers

I don’t think Washington will be that great, but the Steelers will not be in top form for a few weeks.

49ERS +2.5 over Rams

I’m not sure that Los Angeles should be a road favorite over anyone with their quarterbacks.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Seahawks PK, Saints/Raiders OVER 41, Cowboys/Giants OVER 36

Others I Like: Jaguars +15, Texans/Bears UNDER 54, Bears +16, Patriots +17, Chargers +17, Titans/Vikings UNDER 51

Best Bets: Patriots +7, Browns +3.5, Saints/Raiders OVER 51

This Week: 0-1

Season: 0-1