A nice, solid, start to the season as I finished 9-7 against
the spread, and all nine of my teaser options hit. I had the Jets last night in
my Twitter pick so I have a decent profit to start the season.
This will be the first week we look at The Opposite Theory
that I came up with a couple of years ago. Basically, if a team that didn’t
cover the spread the week before is playing a team that did, take the team that
didn’t cover.
This is especially true in Week 2 with the knee jerk
reactions across the league. You will hear that stat that around only 10% of
teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. Only 37 % of teams in the league make
the playoffs to begin with, so it is not exactly a doomsday scenario.
Hell, just last year, Houston and Seattle started 0-2 yet
both made the playoffs. That’s almost a fifth of the entire playoff bracket
last year that started 0-2.
Anyway, I digress. Week 2 is the time to find that
over-reaction value. As always, remember: Vegas is not predicting the score of
the game; they are trying to get 50% of bets on either side.
Jets +1 over BILLS
My Thursday night Twitter pick. Follow me at @Tomlin3 each
week to get the Thursday night picks.
Titans +6 over LIONS
This is the first The Opposite Theory game of the year! I’ve
thought about changing it to “Zig-Zag” or “Every Other”, but for some reason I
like TOT’s.
TEXANS -2 over Chiefs
Kansas City had to get extremely lucky to get out with a win
against the Chargers last week. If not for Keenan Allen’s injury (damn you
Fantasy Gods!!!) then San Diego wins that game. I think Houston rides the Lamar
Miller train this week, and he will be the top Fantasy back of the week.
Dolphins +7 over
PATRIOTS
Jimmy Garoppolo and Bill Belichick were able to fool Arizona
last week, but I think the pumpkin turns to midnight this weekend. To think
that a guy getting his second start ever, without (or with a hobbled) his best
target, and their top back is hurt is giving a touchdown. Miami actually looked solid last week and I
think Arian Foster gives them their money’s worth this week.
BROWNS +7 over Ravens
The Opposite Theory game number 2! Along with a new theory:
if any NFL team is GETTING a touchdown at HOME, you take them. Don’t worry
about Josh McCown playing quarterback, or the awful defense/rushing game/coaching.
Go with the trend.
Bengals +3 over
STEELERS
The Opposite Theory game number 3! Cincinnati did not cover
in their win over the Jets, which actually looks more impressive after last
night’s showing. Pittsburgh destroyed the Redskins, which we might see as not
as impressive after the next couple of weeks. A.J. Green looks like a man on a
mission and I think he out-points Antonio Brown.
WASHINGTON -3 over
Cowboys
Neither team covered so there is not TOT here. Jerry Jones
and Dak Prescott have both put the onus on getting the ball to Dez, and Josh
Norman has been grilled all week about getting torched last weekend. This is a
bad combination.
GIANTS -4.5 over
Saints
Technically the Giants pushed last weekend so I’m not counting this as a TOT game. Either way, I think Odell Beckham breaks out of his hibernation from last weekend and there’s nothing that Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks can do to keep up.They play Odell Beckham this week. https://t.co/9YaDGaxtOJ— Evan Silva (@evansilva) September 12, 2016
49ers +14 over
PANTHERS
Normally, this would classify as a TOT game, but when TWO
TOUCHDOWNS are being given, I can’t pass them up. San Francisco looked decent
enough in their 28-0 win over Los Angeles to keep this game close. Although Cam
Newton is 29-14 against the spread at home, I have to take two touchdowns in
ANY NFL game.
CARDINALS -7 over
Buccaneers
This is TOT game number 4, but it might cause an addendum to
the rule. Some times a team is just running hot against a team that is in a
trench. If the spread is a touchdown or more you should probably take the
value. I will stick to my guns with the TOT, HOWEVER, I think this game might
change my thinking on the logistics of the theory.
Colts +7 over BRONCOS
There’s a lot of touchdown+ spreads this weekend as well as
another TOT game. Indianapolis was undone by their ability to cover the opposing
running backs and I don’t have faith that C.J. Anderson can put solid games
together back-to-back. Andrew Luck withstands the assault of the Denver defense
and pulls out the upset.
Falcons +4.5 over
RAIDERS
Two things we will realize after the next couple of weeks:
New Orleans is not that good, and Tampa Bay is pretty good. Those two
soon-to-be facts will make you think this game should be closer to a “Pick
‘em”, which means value on Atlanta. Throw in TOT and the Falcons are the pick
to go with. If you don’t already have Tevin Coleman on your Fantasy Team, get
him now. He will outscore Freeman by the need of the year.
RAMS +7 over Seahawks
The Opposite Theory. Touchdown+ underdog. Home underdog.
Touchdown+ underdog at home. Every trend is in Los Angeles’ favor, plus the
fact that Russell Wilson is not 100%. This is a game you bet the Rams and don’t
even pay attention to as your hope the trends hold up.
CHARGERS -3 over
Jaguars
Both of these teams covered by the majority of books
(although some had them failing to) last week, however both lost their game.
San Diego is just not the same team without Keenan Allen in the lineup, but I
suspect they cook up some Danny Woodhead stuff mixed with a sprinkle of Travis
Benjamin to keep the offensive firepower alive for at least one week.
VIKINGS +3 over
Packers
Because of the ambiguity of the line with the
Packers/Jaguars game last week, I’m not willing to call this a TOT game since
Green Bay won. Now everything points to the Packers: Aaron Rodgers; Aaron Rodgers
in Prime Time; Aaron Rodgers against a spare quarterback; Sam Bradford in his
first start with the team. With all that said, shouldn’t they be more than a
field goal favorite? I think this is the sucker bet of the week, as people line
up to take A-Rodg and Vegas knows that the Vikings are better than they are
getting credit for.
BEARS -3 over Eagles
Carson Wentz on the road for the first time going against
The Opposite Theory? Give me some of that! Chicago was actually leading and
controlling that game on the road against the Texans last week and their own
mistakes did them in. Philadelphia will have a much harder time against a
Bears’ team that is significantly better than Cleveland. Give me the home team.
Best Bets of the
Week:
Washington -3, Vikings +3, Saints/Giants OVER 53
10-Point Teaser of
the Week:
Washington +7, Saints/Giants OVER 43, 49ers +24
Others I Like:
Rams +17, Titans +16, Bengals +13, Falcons +14.5,
Washington/Cowboys OVER 35, and Texans/Chiefs UNDER 58
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 10-7
No comments:
Post a Comment