Rebuilding On the Fly: Whether a recent coach switch or conference
switch, these teams are not anywhere near contention.
Utah Utes, 4-8
Colorado Buffaloes, 3-9
California Golden Bears, 2-10
Cal has not beaten
an FBS team since October 13th… of 2013. After a disappointing 1-11 season in coach
Sonny Dykes’ first year, you would have to say his seat might already be
warming up. The schedule was quite
difficult last season, but outside of a home loss to Arizona by 5 points the
Golden Bears did not get within two touchdowns of any other opponent. Quarterback Jared Goff is back under center
after throwing for over 3,500 yards last season, but the defense was the real
issue. Cal gave up an average of 46
points a game, including more than 60 twice in their last three games.
Since moving to
the Pac-12 from the Big XII Colorado has won just eight games total. Second year coach Mike Macintyre will at
least have a more established quarterback this year in Sefo Liufau. Liufau won the job from the inefficient Connor
Cook midway through the season and had a few bright spots, especially a
364-yard day against Cal. Gone is
1,000-yard receiver Paul Richardson, and it will be more of a platoon
replacement led by Nelson Spruce (650 yards, 4 TD last season). The Buffs should rely on their deep stable of
running backs as they bring back Christian Powell and Michael Adkins who
combined for almost 1,100 yards on just 250 carries last season. The defense will have to get better for Colorado
to even match last season’s win total.
They gave up 44+ points in seven games and did not hold an FBS team to
less than 24.
Utah’s season will
come down to the legs and feet of quarterback Travis Wilson. He has been medically cleared to play after
multiple injuries derailed his 2013 season, but he will have to become more
consistent with taking care of the ball.
For instance, against Oregon State Wilson threw for 279 yards and 2
touchdowns while rushing for 142 yards and 3 more touchdowns. However, he threw three interceptions and
added a fumble to go with it. Against
BYU, the then-sophomore threw for 273 yards, 2 TD’s, and no interceptions;
however he followed that up with a SIX-interception performance against
UCLA. Either way, he will have one of
the best receivers in the conference to throw to with Dres Anderson. As the Pac-12’s second-leading returning
receiver, Anderson had 1,002 yards receiving and 8 total touchdowns last
year. If he can be a breakout stud and
Wilson can take care of the ball, the Utes could pull an upset or two.
Lacking a Superstar: This group of teams has the talent to contend
for the conference title, but is lacking one elite superstar to take them to
the top.
Stanford Cardinal, 8-4
Oregon State Beavers, 8-4
Arizona State Sun Devils, 7-5
Arizona Wildcats, 7-5
Washington State Cougars, 6-6
Mike Leach has the
Cougars’ arrow pointed in the right direction, leading them to their first bowl
game in 10 years. It is just his third
season at the helm though, so I do not believe that Washington State can make
the next step just yet. The perfect
example is QB Connor Halliday: yes, Halliday threw for a ton of yards last year
(4,597) but the 22 interceptions have to drive Leach crazy. If you look at his best Red Raider teams the
quarterbacks took shockingly good care of the ball for the amount of attempts
they threw. All four other quarterbacks
on the roster are freshmen that Leach recruited, so he might have the arrow
pointing back up next season.
The good news for
Rich Rodriguez is that he gets 2012 Biletnikoff semifinalist
Austin Hill back after missing all of last season with an ACL injury. Hill had 81 catches for 1,364 yards and 11
touchdowns that season as a sophomore.
If he returns to form he has the ability to lead the conference in
receiving. The bad news is what might
keep Hill from having a big year: not a single player on their roster threw a
pass for the Wildcats last season.
Rodriguez has not hinted at who might start and there are four
candidates. I think Texas transfer
Connor Brewer will get the nod, but USC transfer Jesse Scroggins and JUCO
transfer Jerrard Randall have their upsides as well. It might be a long year as they figure out
which is the best option, so that could leave the Wildcats behind in the
conference race.
Arizona State has
the most accomplished quarterback-receiver combo in the conference with Taylor Kelly and Jaelen
Strong. Strong was fourth in the
conference last season with 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns in his first
season with the Sun Devils. Kelly is a
distant fourth as far as the conference’s best quarterback, throwing for 3,635
yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, along with 608 yards rushing and 9
touchdowns. The Sun Devils lose their
thousand-yard back in Marion Grice, and the schedule does them no favors. Arizona State has to travel to USC,
Washington, Oregon State and Arizona, and has a mid-season battle with Notre
Dame. The defense will not be able to
handle that slate after losing centerpiece Will Sutton and linebacker Carl
Bradford, and giving up 30+ points in their last four games last season.
A lot of people
would say that Beavers’ quarterback Sean Mannion is a superstar after setting
the Pac-12 record for passing yards last year (4,662 yards, 35 TD’s) but he has
to prove that he can put up numbers like that without Brandin Cooks. Cooks set the Pac-12 receiving yards/touchdowns
record last season (1,730/16) and he will be a fantasy sleeper on the Saints’
roster this year. The defense also lost
its key piece, DE Scott Crichton, and even with him they were 91st
in scoring defense last year. To make
matters worse, three of the Beavers’ most difficult games are on the road, and
they end the season at home in the Civil War.
Mannion could prove me wrong, set another new record and lead Oregon
State to the Pac-12 Championship, but I just do not see that happening.
Stanford returns
its quarterback, Kevin Hogan, but he is more of a game manager than a
superstar. The Cardinal loses 1,600-yard
rusher Tyler Gaffney and the job appears to be Barry Sanders Jr.’s to lose. Top receiver Ty Montgomery is back with his
second-nationally 30.3
yards per kickoff return. Montgomery
gives Stanford big play ability to help offset the offense’s shortcomings. The real strength will be on defense where S
Jordan Richards and DE Henry Anderson lead the way. The Cardinal were top-10 in overall defense
as well as scoring defense last season and figure to be again this year. The real problem for Stanford is no fault of
their own: the schedule. Stanford has to
go on the road for almost every top opponent, including Washington and Notre
Dame in back-to-back weeks, Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA. That schedule is just too daunting for this
team to get out unscathed.
The Playoff to the Playoff: These four teams are basically in a
mini-playoff group of their own to see who can survive and most likely get a
spot in the first College Football Playoff.
Oregon Ducks, 11-1
UCLA Bruins, 11-1
USC Trojans, 10-2
Washington Huskies, 10-3
Usually
if a team loses a quarterback, running back, and tight end to the NFL Draft,
changes head coaches, and has its presumptive new starting quarterback
suspended for the spring as well as the season opener I would be quite
pessimistic of their outcome. However,
Washington is loaded on defense, and I am all-in on Chris Petersen. It gets lost amid his greatness that Petersen
turned Boise State into an actual national contender and power. I mean this guy’s career record is 92-12,
including a seven-year stretch of 84-8 and a four-year stretch of 50-3 (as well
as organizing THIS). The quarterback situation is a mess with
Cyler Miles suspended for the opener, but I think he will be the entrenched guy
by conference play after throwing for 418 yards and four touchdowns while
running for 200 in mainly just two games last year. The defense will carry this team with DT
Danny Shelton (2 blocked kicks) absolutely controlling the line of scrimmage
against the run, CB Marcus Peters (5 INT, 14 PBU) locking down the top opposing
receiver, and DE Hau’oli Kikaha (13 sacks) pressuring the quarterback. The X-factor will be LB/RB Shaq Thompson who
was second on the team in tackles last year, and figures to be one of its
leading running backs as well this year.
If Cyler Miles breaks out, this team could make a run into the Playoff.
With
Cody Kessler entrenched as the starting quarterback, USC has an established
signal-caller for the first time since Matt Barkley left. Kessler was solid if unspectacular last
season (2,968 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT) but I expect a big jump with the tutelage of
new head coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian has coached four different
first-round draft picks at quarterback, as well as two others (including one of
his backups) that will play in the NFL.
Either way, Kessler has a monster (and future
first-round pick in his own right) to throw to in Nelson Agholor (918 yards, 6
TD, 2 return TD). The defense has a stud
at every level. Safety Su’a Cravens
started as a true freshman last season (4 INT) and figures to make a big jump
this year. Linebacker Hayes Pullard has
led the Trojans in tackles for the past two years. Then there is DT Leonard Williams who is
projected to be a top-3 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. The First-Team All-American had 74 tackles
last year with 13.5 TFL as he controlled the line of scrimmage at his own
will. The Trojans also avoid both Oregon
and Washington, and their second toughest road trip is down the highway to
UCLA. If USC can somehow split the road
games at Stanford and UCLA, they would have a real shot at getting into the
Playoff.
UCLA
is a little top heavy, but that top is one of the best in the country: Brett Hundley. Hundley led the Bruins in both passing (3,071
yards, 24 TD) and rushing yardage (748 yards, 11 TD) last year. The 6’3’’, 227-pound Hundley’s efficiency
numbers were significantly higher as a sophomore and if he continues to
progress throwing the ball he will definitely be in the conversation for the
top overall pick. Surprisingly, he has
the second most scramble yards the past two years after only Mr. Football. Sharing the backfield with Hundley at some
times will be two-way player Myles Jack.
Jack won the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Award last season…. For BOTH
offense and defense. That is just
ridiculous. However, coach Jim Mora has
said that Jack will see less carries this year and focus more on defense. Combined with LB Eric Kendricks (106
tackles), they form the most fearsome linebacker duo in the country. The schedule might be the hardest in the
nation. Road non-conference games
against both Virginia and Texas have to be top-5 in difficulty for all of the Big-5
conference teams. The Bruins get
Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home, but will have to travel to
Washington. Nevertheless, I think
Hundley makes a statement, and leads UCLA to just a single conference loss and
into the Pac-12 Championship game.
And
in that game, they will most likely be facing the Oregon Ducks. Oregon has the best player in the conference,
(and possibly the nation) Marcus Mariota.
Mariota is Brett Hundley-PLUS: 3,665 yards passing, 715 yards rushing,
40 total touchdowns and just four interceptions. Before partially tearing his MCL last year,
Mariota started the year with 20 touchdowns passing and zero
interceptions. If he stays healthy all
year he could seriously threaten a zero-interception season. Next to Mariota in the backfield will be the
next in the long line of explosive Duck running backs, Byron Marshall. Last year, Marshall had 1,193 total yards and
14 touchdowns on just 181 touches for 6.6 yards a touch. Thomas Tyner (6.2 YPC) will see his share of
carries as well. Up front, the Ducks are
led by C Hroniss Grasu who has already been a 2-time All-Pac-12 selection and
has 40 starts to his name. On defense
Oregon only returns a single member of its starting secondary, CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Ifo would have been a lock as a first round
pick last year, but came back and is the hands down top corner in the
nation. While the overall defense might
not be as good as last season (13th in the nation in points
against), the offense will be so prolific that it might not matter. Even with an enormous non-conference game
against Michigan State and a road trip to UCLA, Oregon is the team to beat in
the conference.
No comments:
Post a Comment