Monday, August 25, 2014

College Football Preview: SEC

SEC Doormats-You just have to hope that your team draws one or two of these two from the other division.

Tennessee Volunteers, 4-8
Arkansas Razorbacks, 3-9
Kentucky Wildcats, 3-9

            Kentucky very well could have been the worst BCS Conference team last season.  A 2-10 finish with a loss to Western Kentucky was not the start that new head coach Mark Stoops was hoping for.  Offensive Coordinator Neal Brown has a better quarterback this season in Patrick Towels.  The 6’5’’ cannon-armed sophomore redshirted last season, learning the offense and the intricacies of the position.  He takes over with a new running back in transfer Braylon Heard who averaged almost seven yards per carry at Nebraska.  Stoops still does not have the amount of talent necessary to compete on defense, but he might make the turnaround sooner rather than later.
            Bret Bielema’s wife really stuck her foot in her mouth/Twitter last year, Tweeting “Karma” after a Wisconsin (his former coaching stop) lost a game… then Arkansas promptly lost every game for the rest of the season.  The Razorbacks have not defeated a Big-5 conference team since October 13th, 2012 for a 13-game losing streak.  Bielema at least has the type of two-headed monster at RB that was the staple of his Badger teams.  Alex Collins led the team with 1,026 yards and Jonathan Williams was right behind at 900 yards.  The trouble is on the defensive side, where Arkansas only held one SEC opponent under 28 points and that was the offensively challenged Mississippi State squad that still put up 24.  Defensive End Trey Flowers has 32 career TFL, 12 sacks and should be a top-3 round pick next spring.  He will have to deal with the loss of his bookend Chris Smith who took on the lion share of the double teams last year.  The real problem is the schedule: Arkansas plays nine ranked teams, as well as two road games at teams receiving votes in the polls along with having two of the most hostile environments in the country, Lubbock, Texas and Starksville, Mississippi.
            The good news is Tennessee returns its starting quarterback, second-leading rusher and top five receivers from a year ago.  The bad news is all of those guys led to the 112th passing attack and 96th scoring offense.  Justin Worley was unspectacular behind the center last year before missing the final four games due to injury.  None of the returning receivers had 500 yards, but there are two new targets: transfer Von Pearson and highly touted freshman Josh Malone.  Malone racked up 31 touchdowns and over 1,600 total yards as a high school senior last year.  Pearson had 93 catches for 1,601 and 12 touchdowns at Feather River College in California.  Both are big bodies that can go up and get the ball.  On defense, A.J. Johnson is the best linebacker in the country that no one knows about.  He has averaged over 9 tackles a game over this three seasons while never missing a start.  He has even doubled as the team’s goal line back on occasion and he will definitely be on a roster, maybe even atop the depth chart, for an NFL team next season.  A difficult non-conference game against Oklahoma as well as drawing Alabama and a road-trip to Mississippi from the West will leave the Volunteers looking to build for next season.
           

The Bloated Middle-Just like with the ACC, the SEC only plays eight conference games in an unbalanced schedule so the tiers get ballooned due lack of a true round robin.

Mississippi Rebels, 8-4
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 8-4
Missouri Tigers, 8-4
Florida Gators, 7-5
Texas A&M Aggies, 7-5
Vanderbilt Commodores, 6-6

            Vanderbilt loses head coach James Franklin to Penn State, and all he did was have the best three-year stretch in the school’s history going 24-15 with back-to-back 9-win seasons.  Also gone are the athletic Austin Carta-Samuels and all-time leading receiver Jordan Matthews.  Taking over at QB is Phillip Rivers’ little brother, Stephen Rivers, who will have two years of eligibility left after transferring from LSU.  Rivers will have Jerron Seymour next to him in the backfield, who scored 13 touchdowns last year.  The schedule is friendly enough with a couple of FCS teams that the Commodores will likely sneak into a bowl.
            Johnny Manziel is holding a clipboard in Cleveland for the time being, so the Kenny Hill Era in College Station begins.  The former Southlake Carroll standout will have a healthy Ricky Seals-Jones and 5-Star recruit Speedy Noil to throw to.  He will also have the best Left Tackle in the country protecting his blind side in Cedric Ogbuehi, who will seriously threaten to be the top pick in the draft next year.  The defense was 96th in the country in scoring, but part of that was due to the amount of possessions they had to defend due to the Aggies’ quick pace offense.  There will be three seniors in the secondary with a ton of experience between them.  Sumlin has recruited extremely well though, so expect a lot of youth to work in on the defensive side of the ball.  This year will be difficult though with a stretch of 5 out of 6 games to end the season going: Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Auburn, Missouri, and LSU.  Drawing South Carolina and Missouri from the East Division will not due the Aggies any favors and this should be a rebuilding year towards a possible contender next season.
            Oh how the mighty have fallen.  The Gators lost to a mediocre FCS Georgia Southern last season to emphasize a season-ending 7-game losing streak.  Florida returns the injury-prone Jeff Driskell at quarterback who hopes to finally finish a season healthy.  Mack Brown came out explosively last year at running back, tallying 112 yards and 2 touchdowns but finishing the year with only 431 more yards and two more touchdowns over the final 11 games.  Both of them will have to step up for an offense that was 114th in scoring last season at just 18.8 points a game.  The thing is the defense is as stalwart as always led by lock-down corner Vernon Hargreaves III.  Hargreaves had three interceptions and 11 passes defended as a freshman and that was with opposing quarterbacks throwing away from him the whole second half of the season.  Defensive End Dante Fowling Jr. will likely move on the NFL after this year, but the Gators will need him to emulate the 12 TFL and 3 forced fumbles he had last season.  Florida also drew LSU and Alabama from the West Division, so if they don’t pull an upset or two this year, it could be Muschamp’s last in Gainesville.
            Missouri was quite a surprise last year reaching the SEC Championship, but I think they are getting a little too much credit going into this season.  The Tigers lose their leading passer, rusher, and two leading receivers from a year ago, as well as the Co-Defensive Player of the Year.  Maty Mauk filled in admirably for James Franklin a year ago throwing for 1,071 yards, rushing for another 229 with 12 total touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.  With a full offseason as a starter Mauk should make a leap in production, but Dorial Green-Beckham will be sorely missed as he tries to regain eligibility at Oklahoma.  The schedule is not too bad getting Texas A&M and Arkansas from the West Division, but I could see the Tigers slipping up at Florida after playing South Carolina and Georgia the two weeks prior.
            Mississippi State seems to be stuck in the rut of 7-9 wins and holding steady.  They are always a team that can beat anyone on a given day, but can never win high-profile games consistently.  Dak Prescott is back at QB after leading the team in passing and rushing last season (1,657 yards passing/751 rushing, 18 total touchdowns).  He also returns both of his top receivers, Jameon Lewis and Robert Johnson.  Lewis may be diminutive (5’8’’) but his got some serious moves.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their defense with linebacker Benardrick McKinney.  McKinney is the top-rated outside linebacker prospect in next year’s draft after recording 173 tackles in his first two seasons.  Helping McKinney will be sophomore DT Chris Jones who had three sacks, seven tackles for a loss and ten QB hurries in his first season.  I can’t see the Bulldogs pulling out an upset against any of the top-four in the SEC West, but they should win the rest of their games getting Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East Division.
            Ole Miss’ recent run of strong recruiting classes could start to pay off this season.  Senior QB Bo Wallace threw for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns last year but had one disturbing trend: all ten of his interceptions came in just came in just 5 games, four of which were losses in the Rebels’ biggest games.  Wallace will need to step it up against the tougher competition and sophomore Laquon Treadwell will be his go-to target.  Treadwell was the SEC Offensive Freshman of the Year after catching 72 passes for 608 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The number one overall recruit from 2013 Robert Nkemdiche will move inside to DT after an injury-plagued freshman year.  When he was healthy, Nkemdiche showed signs he could be the next Jadaveon Clowney.  Free Safety Cody Prewitt comes back after garnering All-American honors last season with six interceptions.  This team is another that would need some luck to contend this year, although they do get Arkansas and Tennessee from the East Division.  However with Dallas-born QB Devante Kincaide ready to step in next season, the Rebels could be a force for the next few years.

Multiple Playoff Contenders-If any conference has a chance at getting multiple teams in the Playoff, it will probably be from this group.

Alabama Crimson Tide, 11-1
LSU Tigers, 11-1
South Carolina Gamecocks, 11-1
Georgia Bulldogs, 10-2
Auburn Tigers, 10-2

            Auburn made one of the more surprising SEC Championship runs last season than I can remember in recent history.  I completely under-rated them last year, but I was far from the only one.  They also had a fair bit of luck to get to the championship game, and I doubt everything falls right into place again.  The Tigers bring back the majority of their offense from last season, but do lose the best offensive lineman in the country Greg Robinson.  They also lose Tre Mason and his 1,600+ rushing yards, but do return QB Nick Marshall with a full off-season of practice.  Marshall will be the first quarterback that Malzahn has had for more than one season as a coordinator or head coach.  Center Reese Dismukes looks to pivot the nation’s best rushing attack again and is probably the best and most consistent center in the country (37 starts).  Wide Receiver Sammie Coates is back as well after over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns last season.  Auburn does play one of, if not the most difficult schedule in the country with a non-conference road trip against a ranked Kansas State team, as well as road games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama (along with home contests against LSU, South Carolina, and Texas A&M).  Having to play both the Gamecocks and Bulldogs from the East Division is brutal, and will be the main reason that the Tigers do not repeat as division champions.
            Speaking of the Bulldogs, Georgia loses the SEC’s all-time leading passer, and Bachelorette-winning brother, Aaron Murray.  Hutson Mason got a head start on this season having to fill in at the end of last year when Murray got hurt.  Mason will have the help of the best running back in the country Todd Gurley, behind him.  Gurley had almost 1,000 yards rushing despite missing three and a half games, but really added to his importance by catching 37 passes for 441 yards.  Those screens could be huge in building Mason’s confidence.  Georgia should also have its top three receivers (who all missed time last year due to injury) in Michael Bennett, Chris Conley and Malcolm Mitchell.  The table is set for Hutson Mason to have a season to remember.  On defense, the Bulldogs have the best line-backing trio in the SEC with Jordan Jenkins, Ramik Wilson and Leonard Floyd.   Jenkins is a likely first round pick from the outside, Wilson led the SEC in tackles (133 tackles/76 solo) and Floyd had 6.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hurries.  The schedule is the one thing that really holds Georgia back, as they open with Clemson at home and a road game at South Carolina right after.  If they get out of those two games unscathed, look for them to win the East and make the Playoff.
            There’s one certainty I can tell you about South Carolina: we will know a lot more about them Friday morning after they play Texas A&M.  The Gamecocks lost the number one overall pick in the draft (Clowney) and their starting QB Connor Shaw, but are projected by most experts to be better this season.  Dylan Thompson is a more prototypical passer than Shaw was, and showed his ability as a sophomore in limited action, throwing for 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.  With an entire offseason as the starter, I think Thompson steps it up this season.  One of the main reasons for that is RB Mike Davis, who many draft experts have as a better prospect than previous Gamecock back Marcus Lattimore.  Davis had over 1,200 yards last season on less than 200 attempts while chipping in almost 400 yards receiving.  He has more big play ability than Lattimore every possessed, and an offensive line that has one of the best left sides in the country.  Guard A.J. Cann is the second ranked interior lineman eligible for the draft next season, and tackle Corey Robinson is not much further down the chart.  The defense will definitely miss Clowney, but sophomores Gerald Dixon and Darius English and big, athletic guys that are more than ready to pick up the slack.  South Carolina dodges both Alabama and LSU but do have to visit Auburn.  I think we will see the extant of the Gamecocks’ ceiling by the night of September 13th, as they will have already played both A&M and Georgia. 
            I really cannot explain too much why, but I have a strong feeling about this LSU team.  They lose Zach Mettenberger, but Anthony Jennings has shown flashes of his skill and athleticism.  La’el Collins is possibly the second best tackle in the country, and combined with Vadal Alexander at guard give the Tigers a formidable left side as well.  More importantly, LSU has one of the deepest stables of backs in the country, led by the number one overall recruit Leonard Fournette.  All Fournette did in high school was rush for 7,619 yards and 88 touchdowns while being hailed as the next Adrian Peterson.  I am not going to say he will live up to that much hype… but I also can’t dismiss it either.  He is that good.  The defense might only start two seniors, but they will have possible NFL roster-guys at every level.  Jermauria Rasco will anchor the pass rush and D.J. Welter will clean up the middle.  I like their schedule as well: they get Alabama at home and draw Florida and Kentucky from the East Division.  I fully expect the Tigers to be a contender for the SEC West title and what would be an almost automatic Playoff spot.

            Then there’s the other top contender (who is pretty much just that every single year) the Crimson Tide of Alabama.  The Tide loses 2-time National Champion A.J. McCarron at quarterback, but have two fine options in Blake Sims and Jacob Coker.  I think the Florida State-transfer Coker will win the battle, mainly since people that I trust their opinion have said he is a possible first round draft pick.  Either way, whoever starts at QB will have the best RB duo in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.  Yeldon rushed for 1,235 yards and 14 touchdowns on just 207 carries as his first season as the starter.  Henry did not get much action until late in the season, and then averaged 10.6 yards per carry including a dominant performance in the Sugar Bowl.  Amari Cooper is one of the best receivers in the country and will build on the 1,700+ carrer yards and 15 touchdowns.  Free Safety Landon Collins became the stud everyone thought he would be out of high school last year as a sophomore, impacting the game in every way possible: 70 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 forced fumbles, 2 recovered, 2 sacks, 8 passes defended and 2 interceptions.  A’Shawn Robinson had 5.5 sacks and 8 TFL as a true freshman DT last season, and is almost certainly a future first round pick.  This team is loaded and deep as always, and also has one of the best schedules.  The opener against West Virginia seemed a little tougher a few years ago.  They get both Auburn and A&M at home.  They get Tennessee and Florida out of the East Division.  The table is set for the Crimson Tide to make the first Playoff.

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