The Not-So Doormats-The Big XII definitely has the highest floor of
any of the major conferences, as these one of these teams gets a big upset
every year.
West Virginia Mountaineers, 3-9
Kansas Jayhawks, 3-9
Iowa State Cyclones, 3-9
Iowa
State has a sneaky challenging non-conference schedule this season. North Dakota State has won the past three FCS
National Titles and could beat a number of Big-5 conference teams (including
Kansas State last season). Iowa is one
of my sleeper picks to make a run this year.
With that said, I think Paul Rhoads’ seat gets pretty hot. He will need Sam Richardson to build on the
progress he showed last season at quarterback before getting hurt. Richardson had a string of solid games
including a 262-yard passing and 83-yard rushing day against the
Longhorns. He will have the best TE in
the conference to throw to in E.J. Bibbs.
The big bodied TE will be an under-rated deep threat with Quenton
Bundrage and freshman Allen Lazard drawing the opposing
safeties out wide. The defense will
also have to be much better after giving up 36 points a game last season, good
for 110th in the country. The
Cyclones gave up 40+ points in six of their last eight games, including 71 to
Baylor. I just do not see Iowa State
getting one of their usual upsets to save Rhoads his job, and this will be his
last year in Ames.
Kansas might not
be the worst team in the league for the first time since 2008. The Jayhawks ended their 34-game
conference-losing streak with a win over West Virginia last year. Quarterback Montell Cozart made his first
career start in that game, and while his totals were unglamorous he managed to
not turn the ball over. In fact, in his
six games of action Cozart only threw two interceptions. That will be huge for a team that returns
nine starters on defense, including the conference’s leading returning tackler Ben Heeney. The senior has totaled 200 tackles over the
past two seasons. Kansas has a suddenly
difficult non-conference at Duke and has to travel to West Virginia. If Cozart can take care of the ball as well
as last season while also pushing it downfield a little more, this defense
could lead the Jayhawks to a few more upsets than planned.
West Virginia
continues the trend of the demanding non-conference schedule with Alabama and
Maryland. In fact, all but one of the
Big XII teams plays at least one other power conference team, and actually have
more games against such teams than the SEC with four less total teams. Former Florida State QB Clint Trickett goes
into the season as the starter for the Mountaineers, after throwing for over
225 yards in all but one of the games he played extensively. He will have to take on a more shouldering
load of the offense without the skill position stars that Mountaineer fans have
become accustomed to. The second base
shutdown corner in the league, Daryl Worley, will lead
West Virginia’s defense. Worley only had
one interception as a true freshman last year, but that was mostly because
opposing teams stayed away from his side.
The 6’1’’ Philly-kid has the size and speed to be a future NFL draft pick. What hurts WVU is the conference
schedule. Of the other teams that West
Virginia really has a chance to beat, they have to play all of the on the road
except Kansas.
The Evenly Matched Middle-All of the rest of the conference will be
ranked at one point and have to play every other team, so the middle-class ends
up bunched together.
Kansas State Wildcats, 8-4
Texas Longhorns, 8-4
Oklahoma State Cowboys, 7-5
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 7-5
TCU Horned Frogs, 7-5
TCU
has had quite an off-season with several off the field issues including the
loss of their best player, Devonte Fields.
With Fields playing at an FCS school preparing for the draft, what would
have been the best defense in the league loses its key pass rusher. The Frogs still have depth up front with
Chucky Hunter and Davion Pierson at DT.
Hunter was All-Big XII last season and will have to control the line of
scrimmage as well as rush the passer without Fields. Strong Safety Sam Carter has more returning interceptions
than any other player in the conference with nine. Carter will need to lead the secondary now
that first-round pick Jason Verrett is gone.
On offense, the quarterback position is s till up in the air with
returner Trevone Boykin battling Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel. Joeckel showed signs of skill last season in
his limited time with the Aggies, and Boykin can bring more value to the team at
receiver. If Joeckel does start he
would be one of only seven probable seniors, so the Frogs could make a jump
next season.
Texas
Tech used three different quarterbacks last season (including two true
freshmen) yet still was second in the country in passing yards per game. With Baker Mayfield becoming a permanent
backup at Oklahoma and Michael Brewer surprisingly winning the starting job for
Virginia Tech, sophomore Davis Webb is the unquestioned leader of the air raid
(2,718 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT). In every
game that Webb started and finished last season, he had at least 385 yards
passing, with all but one clearing the 400-yard barrier. Leading receiving options Jace Amaro and Eric
Ward are gone, but starters Bardley Marquez and Jakeem Grant bring possession
and big play ability
to the Red Raider offense. I expect
Reginald Davis (one of the highest touted recruits in recent memory for Tech)
to really take a step up
this season. DeAndre Washington
takes over as the lead back for Kenny Williams who will start at outside
linebacker. Up front, Le’Raven Clark
moves inside to guard where he projects to be picked in the draft next
spring. Juco transfers have bolstered
the defensive line, and there is still slim hope that former 5-star recruit
Mike Mitchell gains eligibility. Like
TCU, there will be only 6 senior starters for Tech, so anything more than a
lower bowl will be a huge spring board to a contender next season.
Oklahoma
State might have the most front/back-loaded schedule in the country. They open with the defending National
Champions (and favorite to repeat) Florida State, then their last four are at
Kansas State, Texas, at Baylor and at Oklahoma.
J.W. Walsh will be the undisputed starter for the first time in his
career and will need to increase his pass efficiency after completing less than
60% of his passes and only throwing four more touchdowns than
interceptions. He is a solid dual threat
after averaging over five yards per carry, including losses for sacks. Desmond Roland is back after rushing for 811
yards while splitting time with Jeremy Smith last year, but the breakout
back/receiver will be transfer Tyreek Hill. Hil will bring an explosive dynamic to the
offense in a hybrid role similar to Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin except with absolutely world-class speed. Mike Gundy plans on making sure that Hill
gets plenty of opportunities per game and I expect he will make the most of
them. The defense was a surprising
strong point last season, but did lose the majority of its starters including
first round pick Justin Gilbert. The
back seven will most likely have zero seniors starting, so there will be a lot
of youth and inexperience in a league that cannot afford to have that against
the pass. The Cowboys have a good team,
but I think the opening loss to Florida State will dampen their confidence and
expectations on the season.
The
Charlie Strong era has began and he has definitely made his presence
known. Strong has made it a purpose that
it is his way or the highway, and no fewer than eight players have been kicked
off the team or suspended indefinitely.
That amount includes likely major contributors Joe Bergeron, Jalen
Overstreet and Daje Johnson. Now I know
that I completely over-rated this team last year and had too much belief in
David Ash for which they repaid me by losing five games by 19 or more
points. This season I will make no such
mistake. In all honesty, there are only
four games that are truly penciled in as wins for the Longhorns, and I would
say at least three definite losses. One
of those will be the game against UCLA at the Death Star in Arlington. We will see what this team is made of whether
or not they can hang with the Bruins.
David Ash is back again, but who knows how long he will stay healthy
before the electric
Tyrone Swoopes takes over. Johnathan
Gray (780 yards) and Malcolm Brown (774 yards) are both back at RB and will be
what the offense leans on as the best 1-2 punch of RB’s in the conference. The defense will have to lead this team with
loads of experience after having to play so much youth the past couple of
years. The DT Malcom Brown had 12 TFL
last year and really broke out as a future NFL player. Cedric Reed might be the best player on this
entire team as he accounted for 10 sacks and five forced fumbles. He will have to make up for the loss of
Jackson Jeffcoat up front. Quandre Diggs
enters is fourth year as a starter and is arguably the best CB in the
league. I still don’t think that Strong
can turn them completely around just yet, and he will need a big-time quarterback to
really compete with the upper tier.
Kansas
State is like a poor-man’s San Antonio Spurs: every year I think they are done and
will fall off, but every year they prove me wrong. Bill Snyder has an entrenched quarterback
this year, after a year of carousel at the position. Jake Waters came on strong at the end of the
season and ended up with almost 2,500 yards and 24 total touchdowns. Not only will Waters take snaps from the best
center in the league, B.J. Finney (2-time All-Big XII, 39 starts), he will
throw to the best WR in the conference, Tyler Lockett. Lockett had 81 catches for 1,262 yards and 11
touchdowns last season, and looks to break all of his father’s school-receiving
records. No RB on the roster had more
than 20 yards last season, but I do believe that the Wildcats will plug and
play another 1,000-yard rusher. The
defense will be led by a former walk-on, DE Ryan Mueller. Mueller had 11.5 sacks and four forced
fumbles last season and is a favorite in winning the conference defensive
player of the year award. Kansas State
has a difficult non-conference matchup of its own against the National
Championship Runner-Up Auburn on the third Thursday of the season. I do not believe that they will beat the
Tigers, but if they someone pull off the upset then they could be a sleeper
pick for the Playoff.
The Only Playoff Contenders-While the Big XII is the least likely
to get a team in the first College Football Playoff, if they do it will be one
of these two.
Oklahoma Sooners, 10-2
Baylor Bears, 10-2
Baylor
starts the year with more expectations than any season in their history and the
ironic thing is that they will only start six seniors. One of those seniors is Heisman contender QB
Bryce Petty. In his first seasons as a
starter, Petty put up ridiculous efficiency numbers while totaling 4,200 yards
passing and 46 touchdowns to just three interceptions. I did not believe in him last year, but I cannot
fault his skills now. He is a legitimate
NFL prospect. The rest of the offense is
loaded as usual, with receivers Levi Norwood (733 yards/8 touchdowns) and Antwan Goodley (1,339
yards/13 touchdowns) providing the big-play ability for Art Briles’
offense. Running Back Shock Linwood
showed he could handle the load while averaging almost seven yards a carry for
881 yards and 8 touchdowns as the third stringer last season. The defense is led by mammoth DE Shawn Oakman
who stands at 6’9’’ and a trim 275 pounds.
Bryce Hager mans the middle and has 195 tackles over the past two
seasons. Either way, when your offense
leads the nation in scoring at 52.4 points a game, your defense does not have
to do that much. The schedule is as
friendly as usual, as Baylor still only plays creampuffs in
non-conference. They should be 8-0
heading into their showdown in Norman, but I also see the Bears slipping up in
one of their final three games as well.
Oklahoma
comes into the season with the maximum amount of expectations: Playoff or
bust. After the bowls were played out,
one could make the argument that they were one of if not the best team in the
country at that moment in time. I think
the hype has blown up too much, because as much as Trevor Knight absolutely
torched the so-called “real defense” of the SEC even more than any of the Big
XII all season, I think he needs to prove himself week in, week out. He has his own dual-threat ability as he
rushed for over 100 yards twice, but needs to get more consistent with his arm
(almost half of his passing yards came against Alabama). Knight will not have Jalen Saunders or Trey
Millard to bail him out this season, and I do not think Dorial Green-Beckham
will obtain eligibility. The Sooners
will not have 5-star Joe Mixon either after an off-the-field incident. The defense has the best combo of pass rushers
in DE Charles Tapper and LB
Eric Striker. Striker had the memorable game against the
Crimson Tide as well with three sacks and a forced fumble. The Sooners added a seemingly tough game a
few years ago against Tennessee, but it looks harmless now. Their season will come down to the Baylor and
Texas games, neither of which is truly a road contest. I don’t think they can sweep both of those,
and also think there will be a hidden loss near the end of the year. Whether it is Bedlam against Oklahoma State,
or in Lubbock against
Texas Tech, we all know Bob Stoops’ teams are subject to an upset when too much
pressure is on.
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