As we get to just over the halfway point in this shortened NBA season, teams are starting to sort themselves in a hierarchy. With that being said, as we saw the last time there was a lockout shortened season of 1999, anything is possible up until a team is crowned (the 8th seeded New York Knicks making it all the way to the Finals). The biggest difference between then and now is the state of the NBA in general. As the first post-Jordan era season, 1999 had few established teams, and even those were older teams that had been worn down by the shorter grind of a season. So here are my NBA Power Rankings and keep in mind that they are not about who has the best record, the most talent or playing the best right now, but moreover who has the best chance (if we were gambling, who’d have the best odds) to hold the trophy up in mid-June.
Tier 1: Contenders
The Favorites.
1A. Miami Heat 27-7, 1st in the East
1B. Oklahoma City Thunder 27-7, 1st in the West
These two teams have played almost exactly equally throughout the first half of the season. They are even eerily similar in the way they play: arguably the best player on the planet leading the team (Lebron/Durant) with the second best number two option in the league flanking him (Wade/Westbrook) and a solid third option to pick up the slack on off nights (Bosh/Harden). They have played decently tough schedules so far with OKC posting a 16-5 record against teams in playoff position (7-4 on the road) and Miami having a 13-3 against similar foes (5-2) on the road. Although the Thunder are a deeper team with Ibaka and Perkins down low, the route through the West Playoffs will be tougher than what the Heat will have in the East. I mean, even as the top seed, the Thunder will likely have a dangerous Portland or Memphis team, both of which could take the series the distance. Either way we will learn a lot more about these two teams as they match up twice over the last month of the season.
3. Indiana Pacers 21-12, 3rd in the East:
There’s just something about this team that I really like. All 5 starters averaging in double figures, Roy Hibbert making a leap into the top 5 centers in the league category, and Danny Granger/Paul George providing one of the more interesting 2/3 combos in the league with their athleticism, defense and scoring abilities. David West is even having a solid year even though he’s no longer a number one option. I like them in a 7-game series against everyone in the East except the Heat.
4. Chicago Bulls 27-8, 2nd in the East:
The combination of Derrick Rose’s health and the trade rumors swirling around Joakim Noah is making me less and less confidant in the Bulls. When fully healthy and focused they are in the top three with the Thunder and Heat, but I’m not convinced that this will be the case the rest of the season.
5. Dallas Mavericks 21-13, 4th in the West
Before I get the Complete Homer pick thrust on me, hear me out. Last season, the Mavericks were in worse position, with a team more unproven. They have upgraded from J. J. Barea to Delonte West; from Deshawn Stevenson to Vince Carter; added Lamar Kardashian. All of these factors help overcome the lack of Tyson Chandler in the middle, whose presence is not as sorely missed with the emergence of Breniandan Mahaywoodright. The biggest factor as to why I see them this high is Dirk Nowitzki: he has found his rhythm again with 7 straight 20+ point games including 4 double-doubles against some of the best teams in the NBA. As we all learned last year, if you have Dirk going, you can win it all.
6. Los Angeles Clippers 20-11, 3rd in the West
Lob City is easily the most exciting team to watch with the high flyers they show each night. Most exciting doesn’t always equal the best in the NBA (see the San Antonio Spurs 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007). The Clippers have a top-3 point guard, top-3 power forward, top-10 center, and Caron Butler having a comeback player of the year type season. However, their lack of a true 2-guard combined with their lack of frontcourt depth is troubling. Past Blake and DeAndre Jordan, Lob City doesn’t have much to offer and even those two are one-way players.
7. Los Angeles Lakers 20-13, 5th in the West
The Lakers have the best inside game in the league. They couple this with the worst point guard/small forward starting combo, not to mention the league’s worst bench. I outlined their long list flaws in my entry about the Mavericks and Lakers the other day, so I’m not going to beat a dead horse. With all of that said, Kobe will still will his team to a playoff series win or two and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did beat the Clippers, Mavericks or Lakers in the playoffs. But what I’m going by here is the chances to win it all, and with their amazingly thin lineup and brittle knees there’s no way they can last through this murderous season and playoff schedule unscathed.
Tier 2: Fringe Teams
Teams a piece or two away from the top tier.
8. Philadelphia 76ers 20-14, 5th in the East
The surprise team of the year has a young and talented rotation. Jrue Holiday (Campbell Hall reference for Pechin) has turned into a solid point guard when not being guarded by Shawn Marion. Lou Williams has stepped up as the scoring threat so that Andre Iguodala can focus on being the all-around player that he is (and that’s probably the second best 5-tool player after LeBron). Elton Brand has settled in and in the weak East this team could surprise in the first couple of rounds in the playoffs, but I can’t see them beating one of the top four from the west.
9. Orlando Magic 22-12, 3rd in the East
If I completely took trades into account for these odds, then the Magic would be even lower. I’m putting it at 50/50 that Otis Smith pulls the trigger on a Howard deal or if he tries to make one more run with him as the centerpiece. But if he decides the latter, do they even have a chance? Jameer Nelson has regressed since the year the Magic went to the Finals. Orlando downgraded from the more complete Brandon Bass to the inconsistent and over-celebrative Big Baby. Ryan Anderson is having a great first half, but can he keep it up? It would take a string of 40/20 games from Dwight to beat any of the top 8 teams in a series.
10. San Antonio Spurs 23-10, 2nd in the West
It’s like déjà vu all over again. The Spurs putting up a good regular season record, while winning mostly without Manu. How long will it really last though when Tim Duncan is just a shade of his former self, Tony Parker is busy scamming on players’ wives and Manu can’t stay on the court. What makes them even less likely is the seeding situation right now. The Spurs are vulnerable against the younger athletic teams such as the Grizzlies or Trailblazers which they would first round, and Clippers in the second round. I just can’t see the Spurs lasting through two long series against younger teams.
11. Memphis Grizzlies 19-15, 7th in the West
I have them behind the Spurs overall, although I think they would beat them again in a 7-game series. I just don’t think they will have the luxury of playing them in the first round, so they’d have to overcome OKC, Lob City, or the Mavs. But if they Grizz can draw the Spurs in the first round, build some confidence like last year when they took the Thunder to the brink, then they have a chance. Marc Gasol is having the best season of his career and need you be reminded that Memphis made its playoff run last year without its best player, Rudy Gay?
12. Portland Trailblazers 18-16, T-8th in the West
Portland gave the champs all they could handle in the first round last year, then got better by adding Raymond Felton. There’s been friction between players and coaches on the team, but it hasn’t affected LaMarcus Aldridge who is making a serious Olympics 2012 campaign. However, as deep as this team is, they are shallow at the top without their face, Brandon Roy. If you put a healthy Roy on this team then they shoot up to the top 5 or 6. Without him they remain on the fringe, because there is no go-to scorer in the clutch, something that each champion has had for the past 20 years (Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem).
13. Atlanta Hawks 19-14, 6th in the East
The Hawks are the epitome of the middle-ground NBA team. They past few years they make the playoffs but don’t make a deep run. So at the end of the season, they have not made much progress in the playoffs, yet don’t have a high draft pick. They have good, young talent, but maybe Joe Johnson isn’t a player to be the center piece. I’m sure they could get such a player with a package surrounding Joe Johnson (Dwight Howard) but they won’t have the courage to pull it off.
14. New York Knicks 17-17, 7th in the East
As you may know from my previous entry, I’m not sold on the Knicks. I don’t think Jeremy Lin and Carmelo can coexist while keeping Amare and Tyson Chandler appeased. J. R. Smith was a good pick up, but, once again, he needs shots and possessions just like everyone else. The Heat just took apart the Knicks at full strength and it had nothing to do with not being together too long. This team just doesn’t fit. Their best bet would be to cash in on Jeremy Lin right now, since they don’t have Bird rights on him after the season anyway, so he will be walking away too more than the mid-level exception to whatever team with cap space misses out on Deron.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 17-17, T-10th in the West
This is my sleeper team as the favorite to upset the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs (and yeah possibly the Mavs if it came to that). No one would want to play the 2013 trendy sleeper pick in the playoffs this year. Kevin Love has solidified himself as a top-10 player that you can build a team around with his tenacious rebounding and ability to stretch the floor past the 3-point line. Rubio has been everything he was advertised to be and made everyone else on the team better. They are a game out of the playoffs right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Houston’s spot as Lowry starts to fade there. If one of their surplus of tweeners (Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, Anthony Tolliver, Anthony Randolph, Wesley Johnson) can step up as a solid second option to Love then this is a very dangerous team.
Stuck in the Middle
Teams lost in NBA Noman’s Land
16. Houston Rockets 20-14, 6th in the West
The Rockets will have to live with “what if” when it comes to this season. What if David Stern wouldn’t have vetoed the trade that would have sent Pau Gasol to the Rockets, causing them to release Jeremy Lin? A lineup of Kyle Lowry, Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons/Marcus Morris, Pau Gasol and Samuel Dalembert with Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger and Patrick Patterson off the bench? That’s something that could make some noise. Nevertheless, the Rockets are stuck in the NBA Middle-No-Man’s-Land.
17. Boston Celtics 15-17, 8th in the East
Remember all of the problems I said about the Bulls and Spurs? Well the Celtics have all of them combined. Kevin Garnett is just plain old. Rajon Rondo is pissed off about being constantly shopped in trades, not to mention his best friend Kendrick Perkins still being gone. Some nights he plays hard and has 30-10-15. Some nights he’s just pissed and goes for 15-4-6 with 8 turnovers. The lack of anything after the four, coupled with the locker room unrest will stop this team from coming close to winning a playoff series, if they even get there.
18. Denver Nuggets 18-16, T-8th in the West
As much as the Galinari injury hurt the Nuggets, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin now playing for other teams hurts them worse. If you put those two on this team then you got a top 4 team in the west. As it is, they don’t have much punch after Galinari and Lawson started off hot but is cooling down now. They are in dangerous water with The T-Wolves lurking just behind them for the last spot in the West.
19. Utah Jazz 15-17, T-10th in the West
We’ve officially reached teams playing for next year, so in all honesty every team from here on out should start tanking in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes. Paul Millsap is having an outstanding year but outside of him this team is in need of just about everything. The Deron Williams trade is not working out much for the Jazz now, but that extra pick in the next draft could come up huge. Two top-10 picks next year can turn a franchise around really quickly.
20. Golden State Warriors 13-17, 12th in the West
Yet another team stuck in the middle, Golden State needs to start shopping Ellis or Curry right now. I’m guessing they give Ellis to a team that needs a 2-guard (Clippers, Timberwolves) and try to get a good pick in the next draft since the Jazz own their pick unconditionally. They could have thrown the max at Tyson Chandler, and then gone to the season with Curry, Ellis, Chandler, and Lee which would at least give you playoff hopes. Also, Utah owns their first round pick via New Jersey if it’s not in the top-7, so there’s not help for the warriors there. Alas, the Warriors are where they are.
21. New Jersey Nets 10-25, 13th in the East
Expect the second half to be a Deron Williams showcase as he will be looking to lock up a max deal from whoever has the space to offer it. With Brook Lopez back, Kris Humphries continuing his strong play, and rookie Marshon Brooks starting to come into his own, the six and a half game lead the Celtics have on the 8th and final playoff spot is far from secure. I mean which team would you rather play in a seven game series, the young and hungry Nets or the old and grumpy Celtics?
Hoping to Hit the Lottery
Teams that need to tank. Badly.
22. Sacramento Kings 11-22, 14th in the West
I have the Kings higher than their record because they simply have more talent than any team below them and its all young guys. DeMarcus Cousins can be an All-Star if he gets his head on straight and the backcourt trio of Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton/John Salmons is very intriguing. This team is another big guy away from making some noise and they have other pieces (Jimmer, Isaiah Thomas, J.J. Hickson) that they could move to get it. Or, they could tank and try to get Perry Jones III.
23. Cleveland Cavaliers 13-18, 9th in the East
Cleveland is playing surprisingly well as Kyrie Irving has proved to be the real deal. Like the Kings, this team actually has a bit of talent, but is a piece or two away. Look for a contender needing an extra power forward to be looking into Antawn Jamison, which could net the Cavs another pick in the loaded 2012 draft.
24. Phoenix Suns 14-20, 13th in the West
While the Suns may be only 4 games out of the playoffs, this team has got to know that the core it has right now is not the answer. Marcin Gortat is proving himself to be a good anchor in the middle and Channing Frye/Jared Dudley are serviceable role players but beyond their starters Phoenix has got almost nothing. They need to package Steve Nash/Grant Hill to a contender to get either draft picks or some quality younger guys in return.
25. Milwaukee Bucks 13-20, 10th in the East
A couple of years ago the Bucks seemed to be building something good around Jennings and Bogut, but have yet to add anything solid to back them up. Then Bogut has been injured for most of the season and you can see that this team is in need of help. Stephen Jackson does not want to be there and the Bucks can possibly get value for him before the trade deadline. Like the Suns, the playoffs aren’t that out of reach, but this team wouldn’t stand a chance against the top 2 or 3 in the East anyway, so might as well tank and try to add a scorer (Harrison Barnes).
26. Detroit Pistons 11-24, 11th in the East
The Pistons are one of the more intriguing teams to me. I think Brandon Knight will turn out to be a stud at point guard and Greg Monroe is already proving himself to be a solid center. If Rodney Stuckey or Ben Gordon can regain some scoring form, move Maxiell to a sixth man role that he is better suited for, and then add a good power forward in the draft then this team can turn itself around. Tayshaun Prince is only 31 and with the right pieces he can have the type of revival Shawn Marion is showing this year.
27. Toronto 10-23,12th in the East
Jose Calderon is having a good year and Andrea Bargnani was finally living up to his number-1 overall status until he was hurt, but this team has no depth. Barbosa has disappointed mightily and DeRozan is just a dunker. Amir Johnson is good enough to win with as a starter but I’m not so certain about James Johnson. If the Raptors get lucky and win the lottery, they can have a lot of leverage as people will be looking to trade to get the Unibrow and the Raptors front court is decent enough.
28. Washington 7-26, 14th in the East
John Wall has regressed somewhat in his sophomore season and JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche are just nimrods that only look out for their stats and highlights. Rashard Lewis is mailing this season in with hundred dollar bills as envelopes. Washington desperately needs the top pick in the draft to supplant one of the knuckleheads in their front court. Nick Young is serviceable as a backcourt partner to Wall, but the other three spots in the lineup are dreadfully bleak looking, especially with Jan Vesely not showing what he can do yet.
29. New Orleans 8-25, 15th in the East
Would the package that the Hornets would have gotten by sending Paul to the Lakers have been better? Probably. But in the end, they got what they got. They will most likely lost Eric Gordon in free agency (he’s restricted, but unless the ownership is resolved by then it’s doubtful they will match). The only players worth keeping are Jarrett Jack and Trevor Ariza. Emaka Okafor is serviceable, but they will discard him if they can get Anthony Davis. New Orleans does have options though, as they own the Timberwolves’ first round pick (although it’s looking like a later and later pick) and this draft goes about 20-deep in solid players. So if they could keep Gordon, and add say a Thomas Robinson and Tyler Zeller, then the franchise will at least have a bright outlook.
30. Charlotte 4-28, 15th in the East
The Bobcats are finally figuring it all out: if you’re not going to make a run at the title, then suck. Suck as bad as you possibly can. I really think MJ is telling them to lose. They have a few decent pieces in Augustine, Kemba and Boris Diaw (if he can play hard) so getting the first or second pick to draft a big guy is crucial.
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