Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Mavs/Lakers Outlook

     
As the Mavericks and the Lakers square off in Dallas tonight for the first since their series clinching game last season, the two teams look vastly different. Besides the key swap of Lamar Kardashian from L.A. to Dallas, there is a sudden influx of whiteness on the Lakers bench, and a few integral pieces in the Mavericks’ title run missing. But, which of the two teams to win the last 3 titles (and 5 of the last 6 Western Conference championships) is better suited for a deep playoff run this year?

             Lamar Kardashian (that’s what he shall be called with the way he has reality-tv-icized his life just as a member of family) is the swing vote in a sense. He had provided the Lakers were flexibility and depth as he could play almost any position on the basketball court. With the combination of him and Bynum/Gasol the Lakers had seemed unbeatable for the past 4 seasons until the sweep last May. Now, in a Mavericks uniform, Lamar was thought to bring the same sort of dynamics to Dallas combining with Dirk and Breniandan Mahaywoodright (the triumvirate of Brendan Haywood, Ian Mahimi and Brandon Wright at center). However, halfway through the season this has been far from the case. Kardashian has seemed to be a complete bust with most contributing it to him missing Los Angeles.
                I for one, think his subpar play has more to do with the rotation and when he is used on the court. With the Lakers, when he was playing his best, he was always out there with either Kobe or Paul Gasol, making him never the primary guy. He proved with the Clippers and Heat that he just is not the alpha dog to handle that role. With the Mavericks, his main role has been to come in when Dirk and Jason Kidd are getting breathers, giving the front court a scoring punch while also having his facilitation skills put to use. On the season, the Mavericks are a +19 when he and Dirk are for the 225 minutes they are on the court at the same time. The other 459 minutes that Odom has been in, the Mavericks are a -15. The key example of this is the end of the third quarter against the Knicks on Sunday and Celtics on Monday. He was on the court with the likes of Jason Terry, Dominique Jones, Brandon Wright, and Ian Mahimi. This causes Odom to be the distributor as well as (in his mind) the number one scoring option. We all saw what happens then: quick shots without any semblance of offense, lack of transition defense, and some of the worst turnovers the team has all season. This stretch against the Knicks single handedly cost the game as the Mavs were up 10 when Dirk left the game and tied at the end of the third quarter in their 7 point loss.
               Luckily, this problem is easily solved. Just keep Dirk and/or Kidd on the court at all times with Odom. While Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter and Delonte West are all veterans with finals’ experience, none have the track record of Kidd and Dirk to the point that Lamar will openly defer to them. By having Kidd out there, Lamar won’t feel like he needs to control the ball as much. With Dirk out there Lamar won’t have to feel like he needs to be the number one scoring option.
              What the absence of Lamar Kardashian has done to the Lakers is far more meaningful than his impact with the Mavericks. The front court has a severe lack of depth after Gasol and Bynum. The player formerly known as Ron Artest is not aging gracefully as his defense is slacking with the short schedule. Kobe has gone into 2005 mode where he is constantly shooting contested jumpers with every swish counting down to catching Kareem. There are five American white guys on their team for goodness sake. Above all else, there are the constant rumors of Dwight Howard trades (which, by the way, the reasons that the Lakers didn’t try to swap Bynum/Odom for Howard/Turkoglu’s contract with Gasol still in a package for Deron are beyond me, but thankfully they didn’t). All of this has led to a recent “players-only meeting” and sitting in the middle of a group of 9 teams separated by only 5 games for only 6 playoff spots. Albeit the Mavericks are also in that group, they at least are at the top of it. No matter how much mystical Force powers Kobe uses on the blood in his knees, he won’t be able to single handedly carry this team on a deep playoff run. The lack of depth is going to end up coming to bite them in the rear as well as the annual Andrew Bynum injury. Unless they make a move for Howard or a top point guard, they will be the little brother to Lob City this year.
The Lakers’ weakness is the Mavericks’ strength though, as Dallas plays arguably the deepest team in the league. Every person in their 10 man rotation has been injured or missed games at some point, yet they are still in great position nearing the halfway point of the season. The additions of Vince Carter and Brandon Wright have been huge as Carter has provided a better scoring option at the off guard to start and finish games and Wright has provided athleticism and energy in the post. Shawn Marion is having maybe the best season of his career as his age has not stopped his lockdown defensive ability. In a three game stretch, he slowed Chris Paul (especially limiting him in the last two minutes of crunch time), and completely shut down Ty Lawson and Jrue Holiday (combined 1-14 shooting and 5 points). His ability to mask Kidd’s lack of defensive longevity is huge, and he still chips in 12 points and over 6 rebounds a night while shooting 46% from the floor.
            The loss of Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson was supposed to hurt the team defense that the Mavericks’ used to win the title last year, but halfway through the season they lead the league in opposing field goal percentage and allow the least points per game than any time in the Western Conference. Breniandan Mahaywoodright has a good deal to do with this. Aside from the previously mentioned Wright, Haywood is having his best year as a Maverick. The numbers aren’t aesthetical (5.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg 1.1 bpg 56% shooting) but he is only playing 22 minutes a game. More importantly, he brings the presence in the rim that Chandler brought last season. Another guy who has stepped up his game to replace a player from last year is Delonte West. He has filled the hole by DeShawn Stevenson as a “do what’s needed that night” guy. Whether it’s playing for the injured Kidd, D’ing up on a hot shooter or coming in for the second Overtime and leading the team in scoring, West has been there. He also adds the bit of toughness that DeShawn had brought last year in the playoff run. This was best exemplified by the absolutely gruesome finger injury he suffered the other night, and didn’t seem much affected by it.
              The best way to look at it is the Mavericks have reloaded with talented veterans who are hungry for their first title (Carter, West) or guys looking for redemption from their former teams (Odom, Wright). The Lakers are just grasping at straws (i.e. white guys on the bench) in the hope that maybe they can still pull off a blockbuster before the trade deadline. If the Mavericks get Lamar going then they are a scary team, but even right now, most NBA fans would agree the team is deeper and more talented than the team last year at this point. The Lakers on the other hand lost their third best player and have no major upgrades to the team that got shot off the court last year. Tonight is definitely more meaningful to the Lakers in that they need to wipe the sweep from last year away. If they can, and make a move to add frontcourt depth or a point guard then they can make a run and dethrone the Mavericks. Even if that happens, Mavs’ fans just hope that it’s not Deron or Dwight because look who is set up salary-cap wise for a run those two next summer.

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