So it has been a while since I have
been on Dirkland because I have been writing over at
SoCalledFantasyExperts.com. If you
would like to check out all of my fantasy football and baseball articles, feel
free to
click
here for my archive. Share and comment away!
Now that football season is back, I
will still have my weekly picks on Dirkland, as SCFE does not want to steer
towards 100% gambling just yet. I thought I would give a quick season preview
with other season long prop bets first.
AFC East
|
Projected
Record
|
Division Odds
|
New England Patriots
|
11 - 5
|
-600
|
Miami Dolphins
|
10 - 6
|
+350
|
Buffalo Bills
|
9 - 7
|
+400
|
New York Jets
|
6 - 10
|
+800
|
Was anyone really that surprised
that Tom Brady got away with cheating? I
mean the franchise has been caught cheating more than the rest of the NFL
combined with only minor punishments to show for it.
Nevertheless, this is still their
division to win. If anything, I’m
probably too low on their win total as they will be in complete F-U mode the
entire season. The only divisional/wins
bet I like is the Dolphins. They have a
sneaky good offense and will put up some points. I wouldn’t deter you from taking the Jets
under 7.5 wins either.
AFC North
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
9 - 7
|
+200
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
9 - 7
|
+110
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
8 - 8
|
+160
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5 - 11
|
+1000
|
This whole division got the benefit
of the doubt last season by playing the two weakest divisions, the NFC and AFC
South. That definitely ballooned their
win totals as well as made them out to be better than they were.
With that said, I think the
Steelers and Ravens are destined to tie at the top of the division again. The 18th tie-breaker will give the
edge to Pitt. I don’t like any of the
division odds, but I do love the Browns under 6.5 wins.
AFC South
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
13 - 3
|
-550
|
Houston Texans
|
8 - 8
|
+370
|
Tennessee Titans
|
7 - 9
|
+2000
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
5 - 11
|
+1500
|
|
|
|
Surprise, surprise I like Indy to
take the division. The real surprise is
I don’t mind laying the heavy odds. If
Andrew Luck is healthy, they win the South. Period. So I will lay the $550 to win $100.
The other two bets I like are the
Colts over 11 wins and the Titans over 5.5 wins. The Colts for obvious reasons, and the Titans
because I think Mariota has something.
They also have the weak division and get the play the NFC South, so I
think the Titans will surprise a few teams.
AFC West
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Denver Broncos
|
11 - 5
|
-180
|
San Diego Chargers
|
8 - 8
|
+270
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
8 - 8
|
+280
|
Oakland Raiders
|
5 - 11
|
+1200
|
This is the toughest AFC division
to figure out. Naturally you would think
the Broncos run away with it, but the Peyton injury possibility scares me. I tentatively put them in the top spot.
There aren’t any bets I like
because the odds on the Chargers/Chiefs are too low. If they were closer to the +350 or +400
range, maybe I would be more in to them.
The problem seems to be that one of the two middle tier teams will break
out, you just have no clue which one.
NFC North
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Green Bay Packers
|
13 - 3
|
-300
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
9 - 7
|
+700
|
Detroit Lions
|
7 - 9
|
+550
|
Chicago Bears
|
4 - 12
|
+1400
|
Now here’s a division with some
action I like! I think the Packers run
away with not only the division, but also the #1 seed in the playoffs. I’ll gladly lay the $300 and take them over
11 wins because if Aaron Rodgers is healthy then they win both.
I also like the Vikings to have
over 8.5 wins. Teddy Bridgewater looks
like the real deal and now he has AP plus more receiving threats. The Bears seem like a solid bet to finish under
6.5 wins as their defense is atrocious, their running back has got a lot of
miles on him, their #1 receiver (Alshon) is gimpy, and their #2 (Kevin White) receiver
is out for the season.
NFC South
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
10 - 6
|
+165
|
Carolina Panthers
|
7 - 9
|
+250
|
New Orleans Saints
|
7 - 9
|
+115
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
5 - 11
|
+550
|
Most of the time I am using trends
and math to come up with my betting picks.
However, I just have a feeling about this Atlanta team. Their offense is too explosive not to and it
has a lot to do with Tevin Coleman. I am
all-in on Coleman as I have him in almost everyone one of my double-digit
fantasy football leagues. I think he
brings a new spark to their backfield that they have sorely missed since
Michael Turner was still viable.
I like the Falcons to easily clear
the over 8.5 wins and love getting money on their division odds. The other three teams are a smorgasbord of
issues: Carolina’s offensive weapons, New Orleans losing receivers, Tampa
getting used to a rookie quarterback. I
will just leave them alone and take the known quantity to triumph.
NFC West
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
12 - 4
|
-500
|
St. Louis Rams
|
9 - 7
|
+550
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
8 - 8
|
+500
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
3 - 13
|
+1700
|
This division is actually very
similar to the AFC South: I think the top team is so much better than the
others that they are worth laying huge odds.
Seattle should win the division handily and I expect them to cover the
over 11 wins.
The surprise for many will be San
Francisco. I love them at under 6.5
wins. When you lose half of your
defensive starters as well as your head coach and you were a team built on
defense and leadership then you got BIG problems. Kaepernick will disappoint yet again, and
Christian Hackenberg will be quarterbacking San Francisco next season.
NFC East
|
Projected Record
|
Division Odds
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
9 - 7
|
+125
|
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
9 - 7
|
-115
|
|
New York Giants
|
7 - 9
|
+350
|
|
Washington Redskins
|
4 - 12
|
+900
|
|
Let me be clear, I am not saying
the Cowboys are the far and away champion of the division. However, I do like them getting odds to win
it, when it is a virtual coin flip between them and Philly. I can definitely see this coming down to an
obscure tie-break procedure to decide the champion.
With that said, you have to love
the Redskins under 6 wins. I mean
seriously, does anyone think this terrible team has 6 wins in them? The rest of the division will cannibalize
like it does every year so I will leave the other win totals alone.
AFC Playoff Seeds
|
NFC Playoff Seeds
|
1. Indianapolis Colts
|
1. Green Bay Packers
|
2. New England Patriots
|
2. Seattle Seahawks
|
3. Denver Broncos
|
3. Atlanta Falcons
|
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
|
4. Dallas Cowboys
|
5. Miami Dolphins
|
5. Philadelphia Eagles
|
6. Baltimore Ravens
|
6. Minnesota Vikings
|
Wild Card Round: Broncos over Ravens; Dolphins over Steelers;
Falcons over Vikings; Eagles over Cowboys
Divisional Round: Colts over Dolphins; Patriots over Broncos;
Packers over Eagles; Falcons over Seahawks
Conference Championships: Colts over Patriots; Packers over Falcons
Super Bowl XL: Green Bay Packers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 27
Last year I nailed my Super Bowl
Champion in the pre-season, and I have a good feeling about this one as
well. Jordy Nelson’s injury hurts the
Pack a little, but when you have the best player on the planet then you have
the edge. Don’t sleep on the Falcons or
Dolphins to make a deep run though, as both of their offenses have the firepower
to hang with either Green Bay or Indy.
Pre-Season Prop Bets
Super Bowl Odds: Atlanta +3500, Miami +1700
My two Super Bowl picks are sitting
at +500 and +700 respectively so the odds are not strong. I do like my two long shots, especially the
Falcons’ odds.
Player with Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan +700, Tom Brady +3000
I already stated my love for the
Falcons this year, and the Brady odds are still out of whack.
Player with Most Receiving Yards: Julio Jones +550, Antonio Brown +500
I feel like it is only going to be
one of these two, so then you are getting decent odds.
Player with Most Rushing Yards: Lamar Miller +2000
Jeremy Hill had good odds but he
got bet too low. Miller is worth a flier
at twenty to one.
Total Touchdown Passes: Matt Ryan OVER 27.5; Ryan Tannehill OVER 25.5;
Sam Bradford OVER 24.5
All three of these totals just feel
too low.
Total Receiving Touchdowns: Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 9.5; Jimmy Graham
OVER 8.5; Julio Jones OVER 9.5
As the only red-zone threat on each
team, I think they each get double digit TD’s.
Thursday Night Pick:
PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers
Brady starts his revenge tour
against Goodell.
I will be keeping track of The
Opposite Theory again this season. TOT
is when one team is coming off of not covering the spread against another team
that did cover the previous week. It hit
at a remarkably high rate last season and I expect it to again. The basis is that the line is set too far the
opposite way due to the public’s recent bias.
Last Season: 122-97-2
The Opposite Theory: 37-19
