NFL Week 8 Picks

A quite solid 8-4-1 last week to bring my total for the season back around a 66% winning percentage.  I lost my first teaser option, but I am still sitting at 36-1 in that category.  The trends suffered last week, as the home-underdog went 0-3, but still a solid 24-14-1 for the season.  The touchdown-underdogs were 2-1-1, and there were no inter-conference matchups.  This week though, we have all three in abundance. 

A few other trends I have been keeping track of revolve around the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest, where the “smartest gamblers around” each my 5 picks a week, and whoever has the best record at the end gets a nice sum of money.  I do not have all of the numbers, but from the weeks I have calculated the data from, by taking the margin of people who pick one team against the other (i.e. the team favored by the bettors to cover) the record is 34-50-2.  If you take the top five margins overall, it is only 11-18-1 and the top 5 teams picked overall are 12-17-1.  Nothing conclusive yet, but they are definitely something to keep track of.  So I had the 7 point underdog Bucs last night, since Minnesota should not be favored by that much against anyone, and here are the rest:

 

Patriots -7 over RAMS

The Rams are the “home” team, but this game is being played in London, so there is no home team.  I see the Patriots coming back strong after the near-loss last week, and wanting to put on a show for the world to see.  Although this goes against two of the major trends and it will probably bite me in the ass, I think that New England is the second or third best AFC team and St. Louis is near the bottom in the NFC, so the trend could be misleading.

PACKERS -13 over Jaguars

This line is just so high, but at the same time who the hell is going to gain yards for the Jaguars?  Backup quarterback in, MJD out, the Packers on an absolute tear… I just cannot pick Jacksonville here.  Although, it is very likely that Green Bay mails this one in and gives up a backdoor cover, but I will take my chances with the two touchdowns.

Colts +3.5 over TITANS

This game is tough, because one of these teams is sneaky good, and will be in position to make the playoffs after winning this game.  The problem is, it is extremely difficult to tell which team that is.  The Colts have the best win, over the Packers, but the worst loss, to the Jaguars.  Then, the Titans, have barely squeaked by in all three of their wins, but none of the opponents have been that dominant this year.  In their losses they get blown out.  I will take the half point of value though, since Jacksonville has not won by more than 3 all season.

BROWNS +3 over Chargers

San Diego has had some bad luck the past couple of weeks, but they still do not have a quality win (unless the Titans romp in the game before..).  I am picking Cleveland strictly as a home underdog, which they are 2-1 this season in that situation.

Falcons +3 over EAGLES

Why are the Falcons getting 3 points in this game?  They are because Vegas knows the perception on the Eagles and can still get bets on them as favorites.  With the three points for home field, this line is saying these two teams are completely equal.  Except Atlanta is 6-0 and Philly is 3-3 with no wins by more than 2 points. 

LIONS -2.5 over Seahawks

Seattle is 1-3 on the road, with the win coming against a terrible Carolina team.  The Lions need this game badly after getting their butts kicked up and down the field Monday night.  I think Megatron is going to have a huge game against the Seahawks’ over-rated secondary.

Dolphins +2.5 over JETS

I actually changed this pick once I looked at the Dolphins’ schedule so far this season.  Since the week 1 blowout loss to Houston, Miami is 3-2 with both losses in OT.  While none of those opponents has been of the upper tier of quality teams, one loss was to the Jets.  It is difficult to beat an evenly matched team twice in a season.  Couple those factors with the fact that Miami is coming off a bye week while the Jets are coming off a late-afternoon emotional loss and I will buy the half point to 3 for the Dolphins.

Panthers +8 over BEARS

A short week of having everyone telling Chicago how good they are will keep this game closer than it should be.  I also think Cam Newton is due for a big game after his comments this week about throwing too much.  Chicago will still win, but I think the 8 points is a couple too high.

Redskins +4.5 over STEELERS

I just do not think Pittsburgh is that good.  They are one of the more inconsistent teams of the season, as they have alternated losses and wins, with this week being the turn for a loss.  On the other hand, the Redskins have been playing better and better each week as RGIII gets more accustomed to the speed of the game.  Their last 3 games they have looked quite good in beating a decent Vikings team, and giving away late leads to two division leaders in the Falcons and Giants.  I think the Redskins win this game outright, not to mention the NFC/AFC trend.

CHIEFS -1.5 over Raiders

Kansas City is coming off of a bye week while the Raiders are coming off an overtime win halfway across the country.  I think Brady Quinn will surprise some people and not be terrible… at least not as terrible as Carson Palmer.  What it comes down to is Jamaal Charles is playing better than Darren McFadden and Dwayne Bowe is playing better than any receiver on the Raiders. 

Giants +2 over COWBOYS

How many times has Eli lost in the Death Star?  Whose signature is on the wall?  Who has not gone unbeaten against the Giants in a season since 2003?  Who is down their starting running back?  Who has a gimpy backup running back?  Who is down their second best defensive player and quarterback of their defense?  This might get ugly.

Saints +6 over BRONCOS

New Orleans got extremely lucky to get out of Tampa last week with a win.  They were a Vincent Jackson heel then a stupid technicality from going into overtime, with all of the momentum with the Bucs.  However, the Broncos have been apt to get behind good offenses (Atlanta, Houston, New England) early and have to play catch-up.  Whether Denver gets down early, or the Saints have to come back late, I see Drew Brees at least covering the six points.

CARDINALS +7 over 49ers

A touchdown is an awful lot to give on the road, especially a team that can sometimes have trouble scoring.  The most telling thing about Arizona is they play up or down to their competition.  I think they beat the best four teams on their schedule, but lost to the worst three.  The Cardinals need a win badly to end their skid, and with the double trend of home underdog being given a touchdown, I like them to cover. 

 

Bonus College Pick:

KANSAS STATE -7.5 over Texas Tech

Lock it up, lock it down, stone cold lock of a pick, to the future BCS Title Game participants and guaranteed unanimous Heisman Trophy winner.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots +3, Saints/Broncos over 46, Falcons +13

 

Also Like:

Giants +8, Redskins +14.5, Dolphins +12.5, Jaguars/Packers over 35, 49ers/Cardinals under 49, Bears +2

 

This week: 1-0

 

Last week: 8-4-1

 

Season: 60-41-3

NFL Week 7 Picks

The two night games salvaged a .500 week, but I went undefeated in my Sunday bets including a huge money line parlay on the Lions and Giants.  I was getting 9 to 1 on it, and took the easy money to bounce back from the happiest three-hundo I ever lost on West Virginia the day before.  All of my teasers hit for the fourth week in a row.  The trends are abundantly clear now, as the underdog by a touchdown or more is 13-7-1 against the spread, the Home-dog is 24-11-1 against the number, and the NFC is 17-10.  So if you have an NFC team playing at home against an AFC team getting more than 6.5 points, I’d jump all over it. Sadly, that hypothetical is not in play as there are not any inter-conference matchups.  In fact, there’s only one spread of 7 or more, and only one home-dog getting a field goal or more.  So let’s get to this week’s games, and you can check my betting history that I had Seattle +8.5 last night.

Titans +3 over BILLS

I’m not sure if Buffalo should ever be favored by a field goal or more.  Honestly, who can definitively argue for either one of these teams to win this game?  I think I’ll take the fact that Chris Johnson has looked better and take the three points.

Cardinals +7 over VIKINGS

I think the Vikings will win, but the spread is just a little too high.  I also see a low-scoring game, which might be the obvious statement of the year when talking about a Kevin Kolb/Christian Ponder matchup.  On a sidenote, if Minnesota wins, how sneaky-good are they?  They will be sitting at 5-2 with three more easily winnable games ahead of them before the meat in their schedule.  The rest of the NFC better watch out as the Vikings might snag a wild-card spot.

COLTS -2 over Browns

There’s just no way that Cleveland can have two straight good performances right?  Andrew Luck at home is a beast, and I think the Colts can get some of that “Chuckstrong” mojo going again in the Oil Barrel.

TEXANS -6.5 over Ravens

The line is way higher than I would like, so I will probably stay away from it.  I know that Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb were key pieces to that defense, but it is not like the defense has been winning the games for Baltimore.  Flacco is having a solid year and Green Bay might have given the blue-print to beat Houston last week.  With that said, the Texans need a strong bounce back and I think the crowd will show up for this one.

RAMS +6 over Packers

The home-dog by almost a touchdown is the only reason for this pick.  The Packers are a better team, coming off a better performance, with the hottest quarterback on the planet.  Nothing about St. Louis covering makes sense.  Yet, every week in the NFL there are a few games where nothing makes sense, and I will take the points and the trends.

PANTHERS +2 over Cowboys

Me? Reverse-jinx? Never.  Dallas needs this game badly, which leads me to believe that they will blow it.  The Cowboys still have the second ranked defense in the league, but their special teams unit is leaving something left to be desired.  I think that Carolina will exploit that yet again, and Felix Jones will turn back into a pumpkin by about the second quarter.

Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS

I pick them at 6.5, but I will buy it to 7.  What do we know about the Giants?  They win big games impressively when given no shot; they lose to teams they have no business losing to; and in games that they should win handedly they fall behind and have to come back in the second half.  I will go with the third option as RG3 gets a lead only to have Eli drive the Giants for a last second field goal and win.

BUCS +2 over Saints

I am starting to buy into the theory that the Saints just are not that good.  Yeah Drew Brees will throw for another 5,000 yards, but he slings it 50-60 times a game.  A quick tangent: why has Drew Brees not been labled a “system-quarterback”??? He was nowhere near this level until getting into the system he is in now.  The Saints offense is the NFL’s version of the Mike Leach Air Raid, which leads me to another point: Geno Smith is the Heisman favorite… in the same offense that Graham Harrell, Sonny Cumbie, B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury ran before, but put up similar if not better numbers.  Why is the “system quarterback” label not on Smith?  Finally, Doege just dominated Smith and WVU, by THIRTY-FIVE points, yet Smith is still a Heisman front-runner, Doege gets no mention, and Tech gets no respect, being ranked lower than WVU in every poll.  I understand not using just one game as a measure of a team’s overall composition, but when a team loses by THIRTY-FIVE how can that team still be better? (Rant over, soap box removed)

Jets +11 over PATRIOTS

I typed the Patriots name first and just could not give 11 in this crazy NFL season.  I got burned last week by a team (the Falcons) better than New England not covering over a team (the Raiders) worse than the Jets.  I just refuse to give 10 or more the rest of the season.

Jaguars +4 over RAIDERS

I have no feel for this game either, and will just take the 4 points.  Very likely a field goal either way, so there is a lot of value in that extra point.

BENGALS +2 over Steelers

Like the Saints, Pittsburgh is getting lines based on who they have been and not who they are now.  Their running game is a mess, their offensive line is terrible, their defensive starters are dropping like flies, and Ben Rapelisberger is due for an off-the-field incident any day now.  I do not believe in them which will certainly lead to a 6 game win streak in my face.

BEARS -6.5 over Lions

The Bears are good.  Really good.  I think this will be as eye-opening as their last Monday Night Football trouncing, and will send these two teams to where they shall be the rest of the season: the apex and the cellar.  Brandon Marshall should have a monster day against the Lions’ weak secondary and the Bears’ pressure will hassle the struggling Stafford all night.  The lack of a running game for the Lions will turn this into a blowout.

 

Bonus College Pick:

TCU +2 over Texas Tech (what even is a reverse jinx?)

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New England -1, Bears +3.5, Packers/Rams over 36

 

I Also Like:

Bears/Lions over 37, Jets/Patriots over 37, Vikings/Cardinals under 50.5, Cardinals +16.5, Bengals +11.5

 

This Week: 1-0

 

Last Week: 7-7

 

Overall: 52-37-2

NFL Week 6 Picks

I posted a solid 10-4 week last week, that won myself quite a bit of money.  Once again, my teaser of the week hit, as well as all 9 teaser options total.  The home-underdog trend continued with the aforementioned going 5-2 against the spread.  The more noteworthy trend is the NFC vs. AFC as the NFL continued its dominance over the other conference, going 6-1 against the number.  Combined with the prevalent touchdown-underdog trend there are not any easy plays this week, but still some value.  I’m off to a bad start with the Steelers’ pick last night, so let’s try and turn it around:

Bengals -2 over BROWNS

I think that Cincinnati will be able to bounce back from the loss last week, and just cannot buy into Brandon Weeden. The Browns have hung close in most of their games but 2 points is too close.  If it moved to 3 my mind might change.

JETS -3 over Colts

The Colts rode the “Chuckstrong” mojo last week to beat the Packers, but I see a letdown against the Jets.  The Jets kept it close and covered against the Texans and although their offense is atrocious it cannot get any worse, right?  

Chiefs +5 over BUCS

I think this line was pushed to the “Vegas Zone” strictly because of the injury to Matt Cassel.  The question for the game is this: is Matt Cassel really that much better than Brady Quinn?  I do not believe so and think that Romeo Crennel will pull out all the stops for the upset on the road.

FALCONS -9.5 over Raiders

This will be a part of almost every gambler’s teaser for the weekend.  The number is extremely high, but if you can’t see Oakland winning, then you can’t expect that they can cover.  The Falcons are prone to the backdoor cover, but Carson Palmer is prone to throwing interceptions.

Cowboys +3.5 over RAVENS

If it is under 3 I would take Baltimore, but the Cowboys will come out firing off of their bye week.  With the brutal five-game stretch ahead of them, Dallas knows that getting the first win might make or break their season, so I think this will be close in the final minutes.  Now, will Romo’s receivers make the plays he needs them too?  People can say what they want about his five interceptions two weeks ago, but the number 1 and 2 league leaders in passes dropped (percentage wise) are Jason Witten and Dez Bryant respectively.

Lions +3.5 over EAGLES

Once again, this is Vegas pushing bets into the pile, as the number lends bettors to favor the Lions even with how badly they have looked of recent.  The Eagles have kept every game close and there is no reason to think it will change, so I will take the half-point.

Rams +4 over DOLPHINS

This is strictly an NFC over AFC pick, as St. Louis will miss former Red Raider Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson is still ailing.  The Dolphins defense has been stout, but they are due for a let-down game.  The number is too high given with how even these two teams are.

Patriots -3.5 over SEAHAWKS

Seattle has had some very good fortune from their special teams, to the replacement referees to the scheduling to get to where they are.  I think this game could turn into a blowout and Russell Wilson will get benched in favor of the most expensive backup in the league, Matt Flynn.  Home-field will not matter when Brady has built up a 3-touchdown lead on the home team.

CARDINALS -5 over Bills

Between the NFC/AFC trend and the fact that the Bills just suck, I think Arizona is a quality pick here.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw two or three interceptions, like he normally does, and with Patrick Peterson back there the chances of a pick-six are strong to quite strong.  Kevin Kolb did not look good last week in St. Louis, but he did not look horrible either.  Management of the game by Kolb will lead Arizona to a comfortable victory.

Giants +7 over 49ERS

The seven points is just too high for the best road/underdog team of the past few years.  Revenge will be on San Francisco’s minds, but there is also the factor that every time the masses are buying into the 49er’s they lay an egg like a few weeks ago against the Vikings.  Now while Minnesota might be better than everyone was giving them credit for, New York is still the defending champions and Eli will keep the game within a touchdown.

Vikings +2.5 over REDSKINS

Most places do not have a line out for this as no one really knows if RG3 will play or at what percentage, but I will go with the one I found.  Should Griffin not play, this line will probably flip the opposite, at which point I will still take Minnesota.  Kirk Cousins had a nice start with the long touchdown, but he is not ready to handle the situation himself.  Even if Griffin plays, Minnesota has looked absolutely solid since the 49er’s upset and Adrian Peterson is due for a monster game.

Packers +3.5 over TEXANS

An over-reaction line to last week’s upset by the Colts, I think these teams are just about equal, with a slight advantage to Green Bay.  So judging with a 2.5 home-field advantage, means you are getting about a point and a half of value on the Pack.  Then when you factor in the NFC/AFC trend, Green Bay becomes the right pick to make.  The line opened at 5 on Tuesday, but the sharps quickly jumped on it showing that the Packers are the smart money.

Broncos +1 over CHARGERS

Can Rivers put together three consecutive solid outings?  Or will Peyton playing on Monday Night Football become the smart bet again?  Drew Brees and Marques Colston torched the Chargers last Sunday night and I think that Denver’s receivers are markedly better.

 

 

College Bonus Pick: West Virginia -4 over TEXAS TECH

I was a Homer last week and it bit me in the ass… but when it came down to it I teased OU +4 so much I actually won money.  WVU is about to blow out the Red Raiders.  And the over cannot be high enough.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Falcons +0.5, Cowboys +13.5, Cowboys/Ravens over 34

Also Like: Broncos/Chargers over 39, Jets +7, Bills Cardinals over 34, Giants +16.5, Patriots +6.5, Rams/Dolphins under 48

 

This week: 0-1

Last week: 10-4

Overall: 44-30-2

NFL Week 5 Picks

Another above .500 record last week at 8-6, but if you looked at any one of the EIGHT teaser options, then you won because they all hit.  I’ll be in Lubbock for the Tech/OU game so I’m just going to do a quick pick set today.

 

RAMS +3 over Cardinals

This line has moved from 1 just today, so I’ll take the value.

Falcons -3 over REDSKINS

Matt Ryan and Roddy White are on fire.

Eagles +3 over STEELERS

Philly has just been finding ways to win, and I’m still not sold on the Steelers.

COLTS +7 over Packers

I think Green Bay will win, but a home-dog giving a touchdown has too many trends to not take.

GIANTS -9 over Browns

I’ll tease this a whole bunch, but I do think the Giants play with a vengeance. 

Titans +6 over VIKINGS

Feels like a field goal-game, and Hasselbeck could rejuvenate the Titans; Chris Johnson already looked it last week.

Dolphins +3 over BENGALS

I just have a feeling about Miami in this one.

Ravens -6 over CHIEFS

If it gets to 7, I might sway the other way, but the Ravens have had 10 days to prepare for KC.

Seahawks +3 over PANTHERS

Feels like a close game, so I’ll take the points.

Bears -5 over JAGUARS

I have been saying Chicago is good since the pre-season, now others will follow.

Broncos +7 over PATRIOTS

I will take a late backdoor cover from Peyton.

49ERS -9.5 over Bills

If it gets to 10, I might swap, but the Bills defense is atrocious.

San Diego +3.5 over SAINTS

New Orleans just is not that good.  But a 3-1 team getting more than a field goal against an 0-4 team? I will take that to the bank.

JETS +8 over Texans

An overreaction line to last week.  The Jets will keep it close.

 

Bonus College Pick:

Tech +6 over OU

I am a homer, but I really think the Jones will be rockin’ for this one.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

49ers +.5, Giants +1, Falcons +7

Also like: Falcons/Redskins over 40, Eagles/Steelers under 54, Ravens +4, Bears +5, Broncos/Patriots over 42, Chargers/Saints over 44

 

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 34-25-2

NFL Week 4 Picks

I was a bad call away from a 10 win week last week, but I will take 9-7.  My teaser of the week was an easy win, as well as a few others I combined with college games.  I was not able to look into picking last night’s game due to my car blowing up.  The trends continued as touchdown-favorites went 1-3 against the spread and home underdogs were 5-3-1 against the number (depending on if you got the Dolphins at +2.5 or +3).  The AFC did have a bounce back going 3-1 against the NFC to even up the conferences a little more.  For the season, the home-dogs are now 13-6-1 and the touchdown-dogs are 8-2-1.  The trends are not in play as much this week, however, with only three 7 or more point favorites and no home underdog over +4.5.

 

Patriots -4 over BILLS

There’s just no way that New England will lose 3 in a row right?  Since 2003, the Patriots have only lost two games in a row 4 times, and not once have they lost three in a row.  Coming into this season, the Patriots were also 27-3 coming off of a loss in that time period.  And if the Bills cannot win the game, then I will not pick them to cover. 

VIKINGS +4.5 over Lions

Minnesota is quietly sitting at 2-1 with possibly the best win of the season over the already anointed 49ers last week.  Peterson looks fully healthy while Stafford does not.  I’m not quite sure that the Vikings will win, but I can definitely see them keeping it close, especially as a home underdog.

FALCONS -7 over Panthers

I am sure you have seen the stats about Cam Newton’s passing regression since his first few games, and he looked dreadful last week.  The Falcons on the other hand, have been beating up the AFC West going 3-0 against the division, winning by an average of 12 points.

JETS +4 over 49ers

I am guessing everyone will be all over the 49ers to have a bounce back week, but I am still not sold that they are really that good.  That vaunted defense made Christian Ponder look like Aaron Rodgers last week.  I think if the Jets can get a lead, then get into their Jesus-Cat formation, they can hold off San Fran.

Chargers -1 over CHIEFS

I think this is an over-shift of the line from the results of last week.  However, Jamaal Charles is not rushing for 233 each week, and the Chargers do not have to face the Falcons each week.  I would have put this more at -5 or -6, so I will grab the extra points.  I still have the Chargers making the playoffs.

TEXANS -12 over Titans

As much as that big number scares me, Houston has taken care of business against weaker competition like the Titans (Miami and Jacksonville) and won by 20 points both games.  Throw in the fact that it is in Houston, and I guess I will take the Texans.  Although I will not bet it straight, but I will throw them in every possible 3-Team Teaser.

Seahawks -3 over RAMS

I switched this pick twice before settling.  First I thought the Seahawks were just better than the Rams.  However, the home underdog as well as the fact that without the special teams’ breakdown of the Cowboys, the Seahawks point differential would be even after three games.  Then I remembered that Steven Jackson is hurting and the Seahawks had about 59 sacks Monday.  I guess I will take Seattle, but I do not feel confident. 

CARDINALS -5.5 over Dolphins

Well, Kevin Kolb has made me a believer, as I even picked him up on one of my fantasy teams.  Although I am sure that this week will be the regression week, but I just cannot take Tannehill and an injured Reggie Bush on the road.

Raiders +7 over BRONCOS

This feels just a couple of points too high to me.  I think that Denver will win, but not by more than a touchdown.  McGahee is ailing and the Raiders are not as bad as people think.  Then there is the touchdown favorite trend in play.

Bengals -2.5 over JAGUARS

The Bengals’ offense has been clicking but so has MJD.  This is another game that I will not touch with my bets, but I will give the edge to the Bengals because they do not have Blaine Gabbert throwing passes for their team.

PACKERS -7.5 over Saints

The battle of the two most screwed-over teams of this season!  The Packers will be playing with a vengeance to make sure that no one single call can decide this game.  I would probably take them at -14.  The more intriguing number with this game is the over/under sitting at 53.5.  Is there any doubt that that will be demolished?

Redskins +2.5 over BUCS

I would like this line a whole lot better at 3, but will settle for the 2.5.  I think it is a field goal-game, and if I had to pick a winner, I’d go with the Redskins after how dreadful Tampa’s offense was last week against Dallas.  Another O/U number of 47.5 that is very intriguing.

EAGLES 1.5 over Giants

Philadelphia has the 5^th best offense overall and the 5^th best defense overall.  If they can figure out their turnover problems then they are golden.  I know that their point differential is -19, but I will take them at home with a Michael Vick huge game.

Bears +3 over COWBOYS

I picked Chicago to win the Super Bowl and I am still not backing down.  This is not a must-win for them as much as it is for Dallas toward their own playoff chances.  The loss of Barry Church will be huge if Sensabaugh cannot go.  Cutler could exploit the deceivingly rated Dallas Pass Defense, which has gotten 2 of the bottom 4 passers the past couple of weeks.

 

3-Team 10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New England +6, New Orleans vs. Green Bay OVER 43.5, and Houston -2.

Other good 10-Point options: Washington/Tampa Bay OVER 37.5, Green Bay +2, San Diego +9, Arizona/Miami UNDER 49, and New York Giants +12.5

 

Last week: 9-7

Overall: 26-19-2

NFL Week 3 Picks

Well I had a .500 week last week, but hit on most of my bets through teasers and only betting on the right games.  I was still 11-5 straight up but my money line parlay was ruined again, this time by the Patriots.  Though it is early in the season, two main trends have begun to stand out once again: the home underdog and the Touchdown-underdog.  Through the first two weeks of the season, the home-dog is 8-3 against the number and the touchdown-dog is 5-1-1.  One more trend to look at as the season progress is the inter-conference matchups.  The NFC is a solid 5-3 against the spread against the AFC, but even more impressive straight up at 7-1.  Lastly I did jinx myself with my Twitter (@Tomlin3) pick by going with the Panthers last night.  I wanted to pick the Giants but was thrown off by the amount of people on them.  Either way, I’m off to an 0-1 start so I need to come back strong.

 

Home team in Caps

BEARS -7.5 over Rams

This first one is rough as it breaks the touchdown-favorite trend, but I just do not see the Rams winning, especially with a gimpy Steven Jackson.  I’m probably going to buy it to -7 and tease the hell out of the Bears winning the game.

Buccaneers +8.5 over COWBOYS

This is breaking one of my gambling laws (do not bet on the dog if you do not think they can win the game) but the line has moved up too high.  It started at 6.5 and the Cowboys’ faithful have bet hard.  I think the Cowboys win, but getting to a 9-point victory seems to be a bit of a stretch.

49ers -6.5 over VIKINGS

This line has actually moved toward the Vikings (started at -7) which brings them under the touchdown-favorite trend.  They still fit the home-dog trend and I will probably tease them up to +13, but I cannot give them less than a touchdown.

Lions -3.5 over TITANS

I switched this one around about five times, but I decided to stay with the NFC rule over the home-underdog trend.  I would like it a whole lot more at 3, and probably will not bet it unless it gets down the half-point.

Bengals +3 over REDSKINS

I am going against the NFC/AFC trend just because I see this as a field-goal-game.  RG3 has to have at least one bad game early, right?  The Bengals are also better than Vegas is giving them credit for.

Jets -2.5 over DOLPHINS

I doubt Reggie Bush will be able to rush for 175 yards again, especially against the Jets’ defense. 

Chiefs +9 over SAINTS

I like it a whole lot more at 10, and hopefully it gets pushed up there.  Another game to thrown in a 10-point teaser with the Chiefs at +19 or even the Saints at +1.  It is a must-win for the Saints but their defense is just atrocious.

BROWNS +3 over Bills

One team (the Browns) has been trending up after their first two games while the other (the Bills) has been trending down.  Throw in the home-dog trend and I guess I will pick Brandon Weeden…

Bills -3 over BROWNS

I could not give in just yet…

COLTS -3 over Jaguars

The Colts and Andrew Luck grew up big time last week, and upon further review of their schedule, they might be in position to be in the playoff picture.  They have to win this game and they have to know that this is a must-win if they want to make some noise this season.  If they do win, they have a stretch of Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, Jacksonville along with games against Buffalo, Tennessee and Kansas City… that’s eight games against the bottom 10 teams in the league and if they take care of business then all of a sudden they might be playing for a playoff spot against the Texans (who will probably have clinched already) in week 17.

Eagles -3 over CARDINALS

Everything (home-dog, better record, Eagles/Vick have not looked good) is telling me to take the Cardinals but I just cannot make myself pick Kevin Kolb.  I just can’t.

Falcons +3 over CHARGERS

Research has shown that the east coast team flying to the west coast after a Monday night game on short rest is actually better than normal.  I also think the Falcons are just a better team than the Chargers, although I do still have the Chargers making the playoffs.

BRONCOS +2 over Texans

I know that this is not the same Texans’ team, and Peyton does not have the same Colts’ team around him, but Manning is 16-2 in his career against the Texans.  Throw in the fact that the Broncos are a home-dog and I like it.

RAIDERS +4 over Steelers

I still just do not think the Steelers are that good.  The Raiders are due for a big McFadden performance and will ride him the whole game.

Patriots +3 over RAVENS

If the Patriots were the ones favored by 3 then I would take the Ravens.  It just feels like another close game, so give me the points when I can get them.

Packers -3 over SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are not as good as they looked last weekend against the Cowboys.  If any team gets a fumble recovery on the opening kick, then blocks a punt for a touchdown the next possession, all at home, they better win by 20.  Aaron Rodgers will have the time that Tony Romo did not, and he will use it well.

3-Team 10-Point Teaser of the Week:
OVER 43 in Saints/Chiefs, Falcons +8, Patriots +12.5

This week: 0-1

Last week: 7-7-2

Overall: 17-12-2

NFL Week 2 Picks

Last week was a good first week in which I was 10-5 against the spread and 13-2 straight up.  If only the damn Saints would have won, my 7-team money-line parlay would have hit.  With Shirley’s birthday I did not get a chance to post a pick for last night, but on my honor (and the 3 or 4 people who asked me during the day who to pick) I had the Packers winning and covering.  Even though the Bears are still my Super Bowl pick (good word choice for a Jay Cutler team), the Packers were going to be too fired up last night to let that one get away.

 

GIANTS -7 over Buccaneers

The Bucs did not turn the ball over, but only had 258 yards of offense last week.  There will be turnovers and still not as much offense this week.  The Giants need to bounce back so as to not fall behind as all of the rest of the NFC is favored.

PATRIOTS -14 Cardinals

It’s so high… But the Cardinals are starting Kevin Kolb. At New England. Screw it, I’ll take the Patriots.

Vikings -1.5 over COLTS

Christian Ponder actually had a really nice game (20-27 270 yards no INT) and AP looked back to full strength.  Andrew Luck was decent, but unspectacular and their defense left something to be desired.

PANTHERS  +3 over Saints

New Orleans did not look good last week against RG3, and face another athletic/strong-arm quarterback in Cam Newton.  The Saints just do not seem as fluid without Sean Payton running things.  Home dogs were 3-1 win week one and I think that trend might continue here.

Chiefs +3 over BILLS

If you take out the pick-six and the punt return touchdown, that was only a 6-point loss by the Bills.  The Chiefs hung with the Falcons high powered attack for the first half, but ran out of ammo in the second half.  I think this is a pick-em game so I’ll take the points.

EAGLES -2 over Ravens

The Ravens looked really good last week and the Eagles looked really bad.  As we all know, in the NFL teams change drastically from week to week.  Vick will not play as badly and Flacco probably will not play as well.

Raiders -2.5 over DOLPHINS

Ryan Tannehill did not look good.  At all.  He is dangerously close to falling into the Weeden zone, and I’m definitely taking the Raiders to win this one.

BENGALS -7 Browns

The first week of picking against Brandon Weeden should have worked out, Michael Vick just tried to spoil it by matching Weeden pick-for-pick.  Dalton will be more cautious, and the Bengals’ defense will hound Weeden all day.

Texans -7 over JAGUARS

Usually, a touchdown underdog at home is the safe pick.  However, that team usually does not have Blaine Gabbert coming off possibly the most efficient game of his career.  I will have to see him put back-to-back solid games together for me to believe it.  The Texans look too good on defense for me to think it will happen this week

RAMS +3.5 over Redskins

RG3 can’t play that well in back-to-back starts right?  There’s also the home-dog trend in play, and I just feel like this will be a game decided by a field goal, so I’ll take the half-point.

SEAHAWKS +3 over Cowboys

Another home underdog, and another game that feels like it might be really close.  The Seahawks might have won last week had their receivers had some stick’em, and their defense is severely under-rated.  That, combined with the crazy home-field advantage leads me to worry about the ‘Boys in this one. 

Jets +5.5 over STEELERS  STEELERS -5.5 over Jets

“I don’t know about you, but the Steelers were much less than impressive Sunday night.  I do not think Big Ben is near healthy, and Mike Wallace did not look to be in top-form just yet.   Sanchez had one of his best games as a pro and like I said in my pre-season preview, I think the Tebow-Talk will motivate him to keep it up. “  That is what I had written until I saw that Darrelle Revis will not be playing.

CHARGERS -6 over Titans

The Chargers did not play that well last week but got the win due to some Oakland special teams’ errors.  Chris Johnson was held to just 4 yards rushing and the Titan Defense was picked apart by Tom Brady.  I think Phillip Rivers will do the same.

Lions +7 over 49ERS 

I feel like this line is just too high.  If it was made prior to last week’s games it would have been 2.5 or 3.  I think this is the same as the Ravens/Eagles game as one team played possibly as well as possible last week and the other played like crap.  I doubt Stafford goes back to back 4-INT games, so I’ll take the Lions and the points.

Broncos  +3 over FALCONS

The loss of Brent Grimes is severely detrimental to the Falcons’ secondary and don’t think Peyton Manning won’t exploit that.  Manning looked like he had not missed a beat and the Bronco defense was putting serious pressure on Roethlisberger all night.  I’ll take the Broncos on a last minute Vintage-Peyton Manning drive for the win.

 

Last week: 10-5

Season: 10-5