NFL Week 8 Picks and the new Opposite Theory

If you have read anything I have written before about picking NFL games (as well as fantasy players, this theory shows there as well) then you know I follow trends and theories.  Whether it is home-underdogs, double-digit underdogs, or any other cracked up trend I see, I try to ride it.  Most of the normal theories have not been trending in any significant way this season except a new concept I am calling the Opposite Theory.  If one team plays about as well as it can the week before and is now favored over a team that looked about as bad as it could the week before, take the points.  Tampa Bay after the 56-14 loss to Atlanta won outright over Pittsburgh while the Falcons got blown out.  Seattle destroyed Green Bay Week 1, but came back and lost outright in Week 2 while the Packers won by a touchdown.  There are numerous examples and I am going to start to chart them and notate which games really fall under the theory.

Chargers +8.5 over BRONCOS

I had a good feel on the game knowing that the Chargers would have to come slinging back, and if Rivers doesn’t throw that dumb interception late, deep in Broncos’ territory then San Diego would have covered.  And of COURSE I’m playing against Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Gates in my big money fantasy league, as they score 5 touchdowns between the two of them last night with over 60 fantasy points.

FALCONS +4 over Lions

This is a perfect case study for the opposite theory.  The Falcons looked terrible last week while the Lions came back and had a huge win over the Saints.  If bringing a team or two to Europe gives us an 8:30 a.m. start every Sunday, then I am completely cosigning that idea.  As far as this game goes, I am giving Atlanta one last chance.  Maybe since they are technically the “home” team they will play like they are in the Georgia Dome.  If the offensive line can just play below average instead of horrendous then they win this game.

BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Vikings

As bad as Tampa has looked, including going down 56-0 earlier this season, they are just two wins out of first place in the highly disappointing NFC South.  After this home date with Minnesota, the Bucs have free-falling Cleveland, home against the terrible-on-the-road Falcons, and Colt McCoy-led Redskins.  They very well could go 3-1 or even 4-0 over that stretch and be in serious contention.  I think Lovie Smith knows that, and knows that they must win this game to kick their season back in gear.

PATRIOTS -6 over Bears

Any other coach-QB combo might look past the divided and splintering Chicago team towards next week’s annual Brady/Manning showdown.  I do not think Belichick will let that happen though, especially with 3 extra days of preparation.  Also, Chicago’s strength is obviously their passing games with their three towers of target (Bennett, Marshall and Jeffery) and Forte leading all running backs in catches.  The Patriots have the best pass defense in the league right now.

Rams +7.5 over CHIEFS

Both teams had strong performances last week, so you can’t use the opposite theory here.  The Rams just have a fight about them now.  Look at their last four games against the defending Super Bowl Champs, the back to back to back NFC Championship Game participant 49ers, and the Eagles/Cowboys combo that is 11-2 this season.  They were in every single one of those games, and outside of a late pick six combined with the worst defense with 7 seconds left in a half they would have even beat San Francisco.  I just think St. Louis will not get beat by more than touchdown.

PANTHERS +5 over Seahawks

Both teams looked terrible last week; well I guess Seattle was good in two phases, but its special teams were atrocious.  Do you realize that since the opening night win over Green Bay Seattle has only one win by a touchdown or more?  And that was against the lowly Redskins?  So why should they be giving close to a touchdown on the road to a decent Carolina team? 

Bills +3.5 over JETS

The injuries to Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller might have been a blessing in disguise.  I think the team can focus now on Sammy Watkins and his big-play ability, which will make them more dangerous.  The Jets’ secondary is decimated and Watkins could go for 200.  Bryce Brown has serious fantasy breakout potential, so if you have an open spot on your bench and he is still there, pick him up.

JAGUARS +7 over Dolphins

Both teams played arguably their best games of the season last week, so there is no Opposite Theory potential here.  The Jags are surprisingly progressing rather nicely after Blake Bortles’ first couple of starts.  They have covered in their last three games, and very easily could have won all three.  Gus Bradley has Jacksonville utilizing Shoelace Robinson’s quickness to control the ball a little more and not put too much on Bortles’ shoulders.  I’ll take the touchdown with the home dog.

Texans -2 over TITANS

Another game between two teams that looked terrible last week, I am going with the Texans at this number.  The game is down in most sportsbooks with the announcement of Zach Mettenberger starting, but this spread was the last one I have seen.  If it creeps upwards toward a touchdown, I might flip, but as is I think Arian Foster runs all over Tennessee.  Do you realize that outside of the week Foster got banged up, he has over a hundred yards in every other game, with 700 total yards and 6 touchdowns?  He is quietly having a monster year and I think it continues.

Ravens +1 over BENGALS

I think A.J. Green is out again, and the Bengals offense will still be without a punch.  Baltimore has the top defense against fantasy running backs, which should slow down Gio Bernard for a second straight week. 

CARDINALS -2.5 over Eagles

Even though Philly is coming off of a bye week, there is just something about the Cardinals.  They keep covering and winning every week by a dominant defense and a new Carson Palmer who only has one interception all season.  Only he and Peyton Manning have a touchdown in every start this season.  Andre Ellington has turned into a top-5 fantasy running back, and they can score on a weak Eagles’ defense.

Colts -3 over STEELERS

Both teams are coming off of dominant wins, but I think Indy is just a flat-out better team.  Andrew Luck has been the all-around best quarterback in the league so far, in my opinion, and Ahmad Bradshaw has turned himself into a viable fantasy option again.  Reggie Wayne is out, but at this point I think they are better off utilizing T.Y. Hilton and the younger options in the passing game.

BROWNS -6.5 over Raiders

The Browns looked terrible last week in losing to Jacksonville while the Raiders got beat handily by Arizona.  This is not quite the Opposite Theory, but I think it is a definite bounce back game for Cleveland and Brian Hoyer.  Hoyer has stepped up to all of the pre-season Johnny Football talk with a strong start, and now that it has resurfaced I think he has a big game.

SAINTS -2.5 over Packers

New Orleans at home is a 100% different team than the Saints on the road.  More importantly, we have probably the best Opposite Theory game of the week.  The Saints choked away a game to the Lions last week while the Packers dominated Carolina.  I think the combo of the opposite theory, with New Orleans (Brees at home has thrown for 332 yards a game in two wins this season) at home makes this the lock of the week.  Brees with the Saints is undefeated in prime time, home, regular season games.

Redskins +10 over COWBOYS

This line has reached double digits at some places now and I just cannot lay that many points with a team on a 6-game winning streak.  It is just too hard to win 7 straight games in the NFL.  Colt McCoy will do his best to not make mistakes in a very Andy Dalton-esque performance in Jay Gruden’s offense, and Alfred Morris will get back on track against the Cowboys defense that gives up almost 120 yards a game on the ground.  Washington will try to keep the Cowboys off the field as much as possible and keep this game as close as the Giants did last week at least.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Saints +7.5, Falcons +14, Cowboys/Redskins UNDER 59.5

Others I Like:

Colts +7, Jaguars +17, Bills +13.5, Ravens +11, Ravens/Bengals UNDER 56, Patriots/Bears OVER 40

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Travaris Cadet, RB, New Orleans

If you are in a PPR league and need a RB/Flex, Cadet is a solid pickup available in almost every single league (0.2% ownership in ESPN leagues).  Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson are out for Sunday, so Cadet will be getting all of the third-down work, and will share goal line touches with Mark Ingram.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 9-6

Season: 43-33-1

NFL Week 7 Picks

So I missed the last two weeks because I was a little busy getting married.  Everything went perfectly and the honeymoon was amazing.  Now that I am back, it is time to see what has happened in the wild two weeks since I last graced the internet with my thoughts.

Jets +10 over PATRIOTS (Tweeted)

So the road team has now covered in three of the past four Thursday Night games so it has killed the short week trend.  The other part to factor in, is the Patriots had a road game last Sunday while the Jets played at home.  It somewhat equaled out the travel aspect and you know Rob Ryan always has his team ready for New England.

Bengals +3.5 over COLTS

Two weeks ago, the Bengals were seen as possibly the best team in the league coming off their bye week and the Colts were seen as struggling after opening 0-2.  Now, the Indy is on a 4-game winning streak and Cincy has not won a game in almost a full month.  Yet, I am going with the Bengals here.  Why?  Because no team in the NFL is ever as good or bad as it looked the week before.  The Colts are on a tear and the Bengals seem to be falling off a cliff, yet the line is still only 3.5. 

Titans +6 over REDSKINS

Washington has not come within ten points of anyone in weeks and has not looked especially good doing it either.  The Titans are not exactly world-beaters either after squeaking by Jacksonville for their second win of the season.  I just don’t think either one of these teams should be favored more than a field goal against anyone besides Jacksonville or Oakland so I will take the value.

Dolphins +3 over BEARS

After that last second loss last week, I think Miami is coming out guns a blazing.  This line seems entirely too low as well.  Why would Chicago, with wins at San Francisco and at Atlanta be only a field goal favorite over the Dolphins IN Chicago?  I will stick with the adage that “if a line seems too low/high, there is a reason for it. Bet the opposite way”.

JAGUARS +7 over Browns

Jacksonville is going to win at least two games this season, and I feel like this could be one of them.  Cleveland is a better team after winning back-to-back games and its only two losses were by a combined 5 points to two teams with .500 or better records.  However, giving a touchdown, on the road is just not something I want to be a part of yet.  I mean I hesitate with Denver giving a touchdown on the road, let alone Brian Hoyer.

RAMS +7 over Seahawks

Once again, I hesitate to give a touchdown, on the road.  It is just too much to ask for a team to not only win on the road, but absolutely dominate.  Will Seattle probably be out for blood after last week and go up big in the first half?  Most likely.  Will that little twerp Austin Davis get all cocky and lead a few backdoor-covering touchdowns in the fourth quarter?  Off COURSE he will. 

PACKERS -6.5 over Panthers

So the Panthers went into Cincinnati and tied them, which should probably be considered a win when you think about playing a division champion on the road.  Green Bay came within inches/seconds of losing to Miami.  So one team looked good last week and one team looked bad…. Of course you have to go the opposite way.

Falcons +7 over RAVENS

Atlanta is 0-3 on the road, with each loss coming by double-digits.  The Ravens are 2-1 at home with both wins by 20+ points.  Atlanta is getting all sorts of crap about playing terribly on the road.  All of the numbers are pointing towards the Ravens winning big.  So I will take Atlanta and the touchdown of value.

Vikings +6.5 over BILLS

For some reason, these lines this week are just huge.  There are nine games that are 6 points of spread or more.  The thing is, just not that many NFL games are decided by a touchdown or more.  The level of talent is just too close.  One perfect example is this game.  Both teams are on their second quarterback of the season.  Both teams have staunch, under-rated defenses.  Both teams rely on a time-share of running backs to pound the ball.  Both teams have a young, big-play type receiving threat.  Why should this game be decided by anything more than a field goal?

LIONS -2.5 over Saints

Something no one is talking about: Detroit has the best defense in the league.  Number one against the pass and number two against the run, the Lions have finally cashed in on building a dominant defensive line.  The Saints are quite an anomaly themselves, as they are a missed field goal and a quarterback injury from being 0-5. while also being a long field goal make and a short miss from being 4-1.  On the road, against the top defense in the league, and I need Drew Brees to have a big game, I just don’t see this happening.

Chiefs +4 over CHARGERS

Kansas City now has two toss-up road losses to good teams (Broncos and 49ers) sandwiched around two blow-out wins since the weird season opening loss to Tennessee.  They are also coming off of a bye, where Andy Reid covers about 80% of the time.  It is also really hard to win 6 games in a row.  I think KC needs this game more than San Diego and it will show.

RAIDERS +4 over Cardinals

Basically, this is going to be very similar to the Jacksonville pick.  Weird stat oddity: Oakland is 3-0 against the number when the spread is 4 or more and 0-2 when less than 4.  Arizona is 4-1 despite giving up the most passing yards in the league and rushing for the 3^rd least amount of yards.  I think the statistics catch up with them this week and Derek Carr shows that he might actually have something.

49ers +7 over BRONCOS

If not for a late pick-six last week, Denver would only have won one game by more than a touchdown.  They are not blowing people out and while it is a short week, I think Harbaugh will have his team up for the prime-time game.  He will not want to give up the record to Peyton, so I think the game is a definite Under bet, making it more likely to cover the touchdown spread.

STEELERS -3 over Texans

I think Houston is misleading lines-makers and bettors alike with their results.  The lose a close game to Indy, but it was the Colts on a very short week.  They lose a close game to Dallas, but the Cowboys really dominated them until a late turnover kept the Texans in it.  They beat the Bills in E.J. Manuel’s bottom out game.  They beat Oakland and Washington, who are two of the worst teams in the league.  The Steelers have a weird, fluky loss to Tampa, and every other result is respectable.  After the way they beat Cleveland the first time, getting blown out the second time does not worry me.  Then they lost a Thursday night game on the road.  I think Pittsburgh blows out Houston.

Giants +7 over COWBOYS

I cannot believe the line has gotten this high.  There is too much made about division opponents “knowing” each other, but the Manning/Romo games are something different.  Since 2006, there are only 6 quarterbacks who have started almost every game.  All of them have Super Bowls except Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers.  Rivers has always gotten a pass for the torn-ACL led victory in Indianapolis over Peyton Manning.  However, Eli is the worst of that group of six, and he knows it.  Even though the media loves to compare Eli to Romo and how the two Super Bowls making Eli better, Eli knows inside that Romo is a better football player than him.  That is why he saves his best games when New York plays in Dallas.  They are really his Super Bowl to prove his worth.  He will never be Peyton and he knows that he can’t change that.  He does know that he can try to prove he is better than Romo (even though he’s not) so he will continue to do so.  It is also REALLY hard to win six games in a row.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Steelers +7, Lions +7.5, Saints/Lions UNDER 58

Others I Like:

Giants +17, 49ers +17, Packers +3.5, Vikings +16.5, Colts/Bengals OVER 40, Packers/Panthers OVER 39.5

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina

Stewart has been dropped in the majority of leagues, being owned in less than 25% of ESPN leagues.  He is back this week, and the Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in football.  The future schedule is strong too, after a tough test against Seattle, the Panthers get the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons, all in the bottom 8 of the league in defense.

This Week: 1-0

Season: 35-26-1