The Pac-12 opens the season with five teams ranked in the Coaches Top-25, including two in the top four. However, both of their top teams have some serious questions.
The Bottom of the Barrel-Teams that are hoping just to make a bowl with projected records
Colorado Buffalos, 3-9
California Bears, 4-8
Utah Utes, 4-8
Washington State Cougars, 5-7
These were the only four teams in the Pac-12 to not play in a bowl last year and I see much of the same for this season, too. Colorado should improve from 1-11, but their schedule is still difficult with a non-conference game against possible BCS Buster Fresno State. California has an even tougher non-conference slate with two Big Ten home games against Northwestern and Ohio State. Cal could pull it out against the Wildcats because of the travel involved, but Braxton Miller should have a field day against a sub-par Golden Bear defense.
Utah has a short but difficult non-conference road trip to Provo to play BYU. The Utes also miss out on playing Cal from the North Division and have to travel to Washington State, so 10th feels about right for them. Mike Leach’s Washington State team took a step back last season to 3-9, but Leach will be playing more and more of his own recruits that will fit his system better. They open with a difficult road trip to Auburn, who might not be the class of the SEC but it is still a very long trip into a hostile environment. I think Connor Halliday will take control of the quarterback position for the Cougars. In the 5 games in which he threw more than 20 passes last season, Halliday had more than 330 yards four times and 4 or more touchdowns three times. After a full off-season with Leach, Halliday is a dark-horse candidate to lead the nation in passing.
Better Be Bowling-Teams that expect to go to a bowl, but no quite contend for the conference championship
Arizona Wildcats, 7-5
#25 Oregon State Beavers, 8-4
#21 UCLA Bruins, 8-4
Arizona State Sun Devils, 9-3
Washington Huskies, 9-3
The other embattled coach remaking himself in the Pac-12 had a much more successful debut in Arizona last season. Rich Rodriguez definitely had more to work with in Arizona last season than Leach did at Washington State, and the Wildcats bought into the system for eight wins. The only games the Wildcats lost were to ranked teams, and Arizona State in a rivalry game. While they do return the nation’s leading rusher Kadeem Carey, gone is quarterback Matt Scott. Connor Brewer would probably start in his place if he did not have to sit out a year after transferring from Texas. The three candidates include returning backup B.J. Denker, freshman Anu Solomon and Jesse Scroggins, a transfer from USC. I think Scroggins will start with a big arm, but the Wildcats have already lost leading receiver Austin Hill for the season. I think Arizona takes a step back as teams stack the box against Carey, but should still get 7 wins thanks to an easy non-conference schedule.
Oregon State and UCLA both start the season ranked, although I do not think either will end the season that way. Oregon State has a very favorable early schedule and will probably start with six or seven wins in a row. However, I do not think Cody Vaz or Sean Mannion can get it done against the top-5 in the Pac-12 (their last five games are against Stanford, USC, Arizona St., Washington and Oregon), especially with a running game that was ranked 101st last season. UCLA might have the best quarterback prospect outside of Teddy Bridgewater, but the schedule is not too favorable. The Bruins have to travel to USC, Oregon and Stanford as well as a non-conference game at Nebraska. That slate is just too daunting especially with Johnathan Franklin playing for the Packers now. However, should they convince Brett Hundley to stay for another year, the Bruins could be a National Title contender in 2014 as the schedule flips to their favor.
Arizona State has the toughest non-conference schedule of anyone in the Pac-12 with games against both Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Sandwiched between those two games are a road trip to Stanford and a home game against USC. The Sun Devils very well could come out of that stretch 1-4 but the schedule gets easier the rest of the way. Taylor Kelly came out of nowhere to finish 9th in the nation in pass efficiency and Marion Grice is a solid running back. The defense is anchored by future top draft pick Will Sutton at defensive tackle and Carl Bradford as a pass-rushing outside linebacker. Arizona State gets to avoid Oregon this season, but the rest of the schedule is too difficult to contend.
The Huskies are my surprise team in the Pac-12 and if they can get past Boise St. in their opener, they could be a threat to get to a BCS Bowl. Keith Price is a dynamic quarterback who went head-to-head with RGIII two years ago in their bowl game as a true sophomore. Steve Sarkisian has brought in Marques Tuiasosopo to mentor Price and I think he will break out as an early-season Heisman candidate. Price has a good safety valve in tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, the second ranked NFL-prospect at his position. There is also mid-round NFL talent at wide receiver and running back with Kasen Williams and Bishop Sankey. Washington avoids USC from the South and is easily the most likely team to break into the top tier of the Pac-12.
The Contenders-Teams with a good chance of winning the conference
#4 Stanford Cardinal, 10-2
#24 USC Trojans, 10-2
#3 Oregon Ducks, 11-1
I am not sold on Kevin Hogan as a top-tier quarterback and he will be without both his top two tight ends (Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo) and his top running back (Stepfan Taylor) all gone to the NFL. The entire offensive line is back and will be good, but the skill position players are not at the high level that they have been recently for the Cardinal. The schedule for Stanford is no cake walk either as they close their season: at home against Oregon, at USC, home against Cal, and home against Notre Dame. By that point the Irish will have adjusted a new quarterback and will be a rough game. The defense remains strong with Shayne Skov manning the middle and bookends Ben Gardner and Trent Murphy, all three top NFL prospects. I just do not think the Cardinal can contend with the more athletic teams without a distinct advantage at quarterback.
USC, on the other hand, has the schedule as good as they can really get. The Trojans do not play Oregon or Washington, and get Stanford at home. The scholarship sanctions are beginning to thin out, meaning that the Trojans’ depth is beginning to get deeper. Lane Kiffin has continued to recruit at a top-10 level with three more than competent quarterbacks. I think Wittek will start, but look out for freshman Max Browne to get some reps and possibly take over. Whoever is throwing will have the best receiver in the nation in Marquise Lee and future NFL’er Silas Redd at running back. Lee had 118 catches for 1,721 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and with Robert Woods gone, he should see even more targets. The loss of T.J. McDonald on the back in will hurt, but the majority of the USC defense is back and should be better with Monte Kiffin’s failed NFL tactics gone. Half of the returning defenders will probably have their name called next April led by linebacker Morgan Breslin. I think USC can beat Stanford, but no Oregon and will probably slip up somewhere else along the way.
Oregon had the biggest loss in the conference with Chip Kelly now coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Ducks just reload. Kenjon Barner is in the NFL, so Oregon replaces him with the fastest guy in the nation De’Anthony Thomas. Dion Jordan was a top-5 pick, but he was arguably outplayed last season by the returning Taylor Hart. Kyle Long’s versatility will be missed, but Oregon has always been deep on the offensive line and returns center Hroniss Grasu, the top center in the draft next season. Most importantly, Oregon brings back Marcus Mariota and his sixth-ranked nationally 163.2 quarterback rating. Mariota had a more efficient season than fellow redshirt-freshman Johnny Manziel, with 32 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Mariota is definitely a top-5 Heisman candidate going into the season and could boost himself into a prime draft slot as well. With all that said, I do not think that the Ducks can go undefeated. The loss of Kelly and his in-game adjustments has been very under-rated and it will cost them in one their tough road games at Stanford, Washington or Arizona.
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