The World Baseball Classic

                A question was brought to me as to how the U.S. has not fared better in the World Baseball Classic.  I mean, it is “America’s Game” and there are more players from the U.S.A. than any other country in Major League Baseball.  When simply looking at the statistics from last season, 22 of the top 31 batters in WAR were Americans and 34 of the top 40 pitchers hail from the U.S .  (Whether Wins Above Replacement is the most accurate stat for a player’s ability is a much longer, separate entry, but for comparison purposes over position, especially hitter/pitcher, it is the easiest.)  So if there are only 15 other players spread out over about six countries that are playing as well as the full 40-man roster that the U.S. can field, how has the WBC not been a walkover?

            The answer lies in the participation of the American superstars.  In the 2009 WBC, the U.S. had three position players that had a WAR of 5 or more, Derek Jeter, Evan Longoria (an injury replacement) and Dustin Pedroia.  There were thirteen other Americans that had a higher WAR than 5 that were not included on the roster.  The table below shows what the lineup could have looked like, compared to the actual lineup:

PROJECTED				ACTUAL
Position	Player	WAR		Position	Player	WAR
SS	Derek Jeter	7.1		2B	Brian Roberts	3.7
DH	Ben Zobrist	8.7		SS	Derek Jeter	7.1
3B	Evan Longoria	7.6		DH	Jimmy Rollins	3
1B	Prince Fielder	6.4		3B	David Wright	3.5
2B	Chase Utley	8.2		RF	Adam Dunn	1.1
C	Joe Mauer	7.9		LF	Ryan Braun	4.9
LF	Ryan Zimmerman	7.3		C	Brian McCann	4.2
RF	Carl Crawford	5.9		1B	Mark DeRosa	1.9
CF	Chone Figgins	6.9		CF	Curtis Granderson	2.9
BENCH				BENCH
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	5.7		3B	Evan Longoria	7.6
OF	Matt Holliday	5.6		2B	Dustin Pedroia	5
OF	Matt Kemp	5.2		OF	Shane Victorino	3.7
1B	Mark Teixeira	5.2

The combined WAR of the projected starting lineup would have been 66 while the actual only had 32.3.  The lack of top American pitchers was even worse.  The highest starting pitcher on the 2009 WBC team: James Shields, 3.7 WAR.  Only Roy Oswalt even had a WAR of 3.  There were THIRTY-FIVE American pitchers with a higher WAR than Shields, including 11 with a WAR of 5.5 or more.  There was Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee all in their prime, all with WAR’s above 6.5, yet none were included on the roster.  Who is to blame for this?

            The blame for the lack of U.S. participation needs to be put on both the players for refusing to play as well as the committee that selects which players will be on the roster.  There is no written documentation of which players turned down the opportunity and which were simply not asked.  Either way, the prospect of playing in the WBC just does not mean that much to the players.  The real question, is should it mean anything to them?  With no baseball in the Olympics, and no World Cub like in soccer, the WBC is the only form of baseball competition between countries.  There should be a pride factor instilled with the players, but most are more worried about the injury factor and the upcoming season.  The non-Americans have this pride, as almost every single top foreign superstar played for his team in 2009.  Should there be cash considerations to people playing?  Should they move the tournament to a different point of the year to not conflict with Spring Training?  These are questions only the players can answer, as they are the ones refusing to play.  Personally, I think that if the U.S. can win this year, it will put the pressure on the best players to come back and win it again.  It is like there is a fear that the best players do not want to lose to these none MLB players.  So how did they lose then?

            Just looking at the lineups, the Americans easily could out-hit the top three finishers, Japan, South Korea and Venezuela respectively.  South Korea had just one Major Leaguer (Shin-Soo Choo) in their lineup.  Japan had a couple of more in Ichiro, Kosuke Fukudome and recent rookie Norichika Aoki, but still nothing close to the U.S. lineup.  Venezuela was deep, 1-9, but only Miguel Cabrera had star power.  I mean, would you take the Americans over the likes of Max Ramirez, Marco Scutaro, Carlos Guillen, Cesar Izturis, Bobby Abreu, Endy Chavez and Magglio Ordonez?  It may be close, but 1-9 the Americans swung the bat better.  So why did the U.S. finish 4^th?  Top-tier pitching.

            In 2009, the top three teams all put stellar starting pitching on the hill.  Venezuela had Felix Hernandez, Victor Zambrano and Armando Galarraga as their starters.  King Felix shut down the Americans helping win third place.  South Korea did not have many big names, but did have a variety of different arms that did not walk guys and pounded the strike zone.  Current Major Leaguer Hyun Jin Ryu had a dominant tournament, with a 2-0 record and 2.57 ERA.  Japan won the tournament based on its pitching depth.  Dice-K was at the end of his prime and the leader of the staff.  They had a young Yu Darvish who had just gone 16-4 with a 1.88 ERA in 200.2 innings and 208 strikeouts at the age of 23.  That also had Kyuji Fujikawa who had just gone 8-1 with a 0.67 ERA and 38 saves in the Japanese league as well as Major Leaguer Akinori Iwamura in the bullpen.  As Japan has shown with back-to-back WBC Titles, top-tier pitching will win this tournament.

            That brings us to this year’s tournament.  The U.S. Team’s management has done a much better job of constructing this team.  With a lineup of Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, David Wright, Joe Mauer, Ben Zobrist, Adam Jones, Brandon Phillips, Eric Hosmer and Jimmy Rollins, there are really only two changes that could be made (Mike Trout for Jones and Prince Fielder for Hosmer).  That lineup gives you a solid 45.4 combined WAR (57 with the two changes).  The top two other lineups, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic are in the same ballpark, but really not close.  The Dominicans are going with Carlos Santana, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Miguel Tejada, Erick Aybar, Nelson Cruz and Alejandro De Aza.  A few of those guys experienced some regression last season, but if they are able to come back from that then they could definitely mash with the U.S.  Venezuela is led by Triple Crown Champion Miguel Cabrera, along with a deep lineup with every player’s WAR above 2.5: Elvis Andurs, Miguel Montero, Pablo Sandoval, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Carlos Gonzalez and Martin Prado. 

            The pitching is what I think gives the Americans the definite edge.  They still were not able to tab the top two (Verlander and Kershaw) but they will throw two of the top 6 starters from last year in Gio Gonzalez and R.A. Dickey.  Derek Holland did not have a great season, but coming from personal experience at his World Series (near) shutout, the kid pitches better in big games.  Their bullpen is stacked with the latest Closer-du jour Craig Kimbrel and his 1.01 ERA, as well as veteran Heath Bell and setup men Glen Perkins and Steve Cishek.  This staff is far and away better than the 2009 version, as well as their 2013 counterparts.  The big reason why?  Japan has zero current Major Leaguers on their roster.  South Korea will not be able to duplicate their surprise run in 2009 as they have already been eliminated, so that leaves the DR and Venezuela.  Venezuela will not have the services of Felix Hernandez, so they will rely on the ever-sporadic Carlos Zambrano and Anibal Sanchez.  Sanchez had a solid year (3.8 WAR) but their bullpen will not be enough. 

            So the Dominicans are what stand in the U.S.’ way of the title, and their pitching staff has potential, but nothing for sure.  Between Wandy Rodriguez and Edinson Volquez, the Dominicans have two starters who have put up WAR seasons in the 5’s and 6’s, but also been injured frequently.  Do I believe that they can shut down the diverse and deep lineup of the U.S.?  No, but that is not how the Dominicans can win.  With Octavio Dotel, the resurgent Pedro Strop and the Shut-down Fernando Rodney with his 48 saves and 0.60 ERA, the Dominicans’ bullpen could put up a lot of 7-8-9 zeroes. 

            With Cuba and Japan out of Pool 1, Chinese Taipei and Netherlands out of Pool 2, I see Venezuela and the Dominican Republic out of Pool 3 and the U.S.A. and Canada out of Pool 4.  I then think that the U.S., Japan, and DR will cruise to the finals with Canada surprising Venezuela (18-year old sensation Jameson Taillon and Brett Lawrie, Joey Votto and Justin Morneau in the infield? Canada could take third).  There I see the Americans taking care of the Dominicans in the final, with an MVP to R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball.  The U.S. lineup is too strong, and their pitching staff is too deep.  The Dominican Republic would need a career game out of either Volquez or Rodriguez, and even then I think Dickey can befuddle the Dominican hitters.