A.L. Central
Detroit Tigers, 91-71
Chicago White Sox, 81-81
Kansas City Royals, 79-83
Cleveland Indians, 78-84
Minnesota Twins, 65-97
The American League Central figures to be the weakest division in all of baseball, as I doubt anyone besides the Tigers will finish the season above .500. The other two A.L. divisions are much stronger and will prey on the weaker foes of the Central. With that said the Tigers are the returning champions of the league and are in a good position to contend again. With a fully healthy Victor Martinez, Detroit has more pop 3-5 than anyone else in the league after Cabrera and Fielder. If Austin Jackson can continue to improve his overall game and maybe up his OBP (projected .340), and if Torii Hunter can fight off the age bug another year than this lineup can do some serious damage. The Tigers’ pitching will be their strength with best-pitcher-on-the-planet nominee Justin Verlander headlining. The criminally under-rated Max Scherzer will combine with Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello for a starting rotation that will definitely strike some people out. The one weakness of the Tigers will be their bullpen as embattle closer Jose Valverde is gone, and rookie phenom Bruce Rondon was deemed not ready yet for the big league.
The White Sox made a run last year, but could not hold of Detroit. Can they do it again? I am thinking no, as Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn are each one more year closer to the end, and Alex Rios is due for a serious regression back to his career norms. They also lost Kevin Youkilis out of the lineup, and replaced him with youth; unproven, but still youth. Gordon Beckham has never really taken off like he projected coming out of Georgia, but he still has time. Chris Sale was the rookie surprise last year for the rotation but the heavy workload has to worry some White Sox fans. Jake Peavy will probably act as the de facto ace, with Dylan Axelrod, Jose Quintana and Gavin Floyd rounding out the rotation. Addison Reed will start the season as their closer, but I would not be surprised if Matt Thornton took the job by mid-season.
The Royals have more upside than the White Sox with a much higher ceiling for this year. However, they also are depending on youth which may be a year away. The lineup is getting quite potent with Salvador Perez establishing himself as a top-6 catcher and Billy Butler continuing his .300/.375/.475 triple slash career. Eric Hosmer is going to bounce back from a rough 2012. The name to watch out for is Lorenzo Cain, a potential 25/25 guy if he stays healthy. If that happens, this team can make a run for a playoff berth. What that will hinge on as well as the rotation being serviceable. The lineup is good enough to get by, but newly acquired James Shields will have to pitch like an ace (something he has never done outside of a dome). Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana also will need to be better than projected (4.65 and 5.03 FIP respectively). I still think this team is one year, and one top-line starting pitcher away from really contending.
The Indians have built their lineup with speed up top (Michael Bourn/Asdrubal Cabrera/Jason Kipnis projected 80 SB) and power right behind it (Nick Swisher/Carlos Santana/Mark Reynolds projected 80 HR). The bottom of the lineup is solid, but not great. It could be better if Lonnie Chisenhall makes a leap and Drew Stubbs bounces back. The problem for Cleveland will be their hapless rotation. They Indians top-4 starters are all guys who have seen better days. I am not a believer in Justin Masterson and think he is due for some regression. Ubaldo Jimenez has never captured that cutter that was so dominant for him in Colorado. Brett Myers seemed alright on a bad team with no pressure but has not proven his self in the clutch. Scott Kazmir has not had a 2.0 WAR season in years. The bullpen is a mess as well, with Chris Perez in danger of losing his job to young Vinnie Pestano.
The Twins lineup features their two former MVP-caliber players Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but neither is still playing at that level. Mauer still hits for average, but has lost all power. Morneau struggles to stay on the field and has seen his triple slash drop greatly (.264/.336/.432). Left Fielder Josh Willingham looks to have some promise, but with the likes of Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks (average OBP of .307) there might not be much on base. The rotation is fully devoid of a top 1 or even 2 pitcher. Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Cole De Vries, and Liam Hendriks. Do those five do anything for you? Me neither. This is going to be a long season in the Twin Cities.
A.L. East
Tampa Bay Rays, 90-72
Toronto Blue Jays, 88-74
New York Yankees, 82-80
Baltimore Orioles, 78-84
Boston Red Sox, 77-85
What has been recently been the best division in baseball seems to have taken a step back this year. I think the Rays will emerge from the throng simply due to continuity and health. Evan Longoria will give them 30 homers, 100 RBI and an average around .280 as I see him having a full and healthy season. Ben Zobrist will continue playing 37 different positions and hitting 20 home runs. The addition of Kelly Johnson also gives this team a little more pop. However the difference maker will be Desmond Jennings. His first full year was disappointing, but I think he figures it out, hits 20 home runs, steals 50 bases and provides plus-plus defense in center field. The rotation remains strong with Ace David Price leading the way. Matt Moore has too much talent to not regress upwards and Jeremy Hellickson is a sneaky good starter. Fernando Rodney is still there to shut down the ninth and the Joel Madden is still there with his wacky ways of winning.
The Toronto Blue Jays went all-in this winner, acquiring almost every big name to switch teams. The Blue Jays added Jose Reyes who becomes the best shortstop in the league. Melky Cabrera was on a triple-crown pace until his suspension last year, and he is projected to go 20/20 and hit above .300. They join arguably the best power combo in the bigs with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Should Brett Lawrie bounce back from last year and J.P. Arencibia progress this may be the most dangerous lineup in the league. The starting rotation received a makeover, adding Cy Young knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and former Cy Young runner-up Josh Johnson. Brandon Morrow is due for a bounce-back year, especially without the pressure of being the ace of the staff. The very under-rated addition of mark Buehrle will also help ease the burden on a shallow bullpen.
The Yankees have been decimated by injuries in the spring and will be in a big hole that I do not think they can climb out of. They are so desperate that they are willing to pay the majority of Vernon Wells’ remaining contract. Robinson Cano will still be there being a top-10 player in the league with 30-100-.302 but the rest of their lineup will be a huge question mark to start the season. Ichiro and Youkilis are both trending downward due to age, and Brett Gardner is basically a one-tool player. The pitching staff is the worst it has been in years after C.C. Sabathia. I think Phil Hughes is over-rated/projected and Hiroki Kuroda was not able to match his season in the cavernous Dodger Stadium. Andy Pettite’s age will catch up at some point. Mariano Rivera is back, but they still have to get the lead to give it to him.
The Orioles surprised everyone, even themselves, in making the playoffs last year. However, I believe the clock has struck midnight. The Orioles played with an expected win total well below their actual win total which brings us back to my new favorite word for baseball: regression. That type of good luck is unsustainable unless you are my fiancé’s mother chasing an inside straight. I do like some of the pieces such as Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and even *gulp* Chris Davis. They will have power and Manny Machado should progress into a top-quality third baseman in time. Their rotation on the other hand, is brutal. Wei-Yin Chen had a career year but pitched a lot of innings. Jason Hammel might be the worst number-1 in the league. Dylan Bundy is not quite ready for the big leagues yet. Jim Johnson will still be a solid closer, but will have a lot less opportunity.
The post fried chicken and beer Red Sox enjoyed their worst season in more than a decade and it is only going to get worse. The additions of Mike Napoli (if healthy and not swinging for the fences every time) and Shane Victorino combined with the emergence of Will Middlebrooks (23 HR/81 RBI) give the lineup a much needed boost. Jacoby Ellsbury will have trouble living up to his projection of 16 HR/31 SB if he cannot stay on the field. Ortiz and Pedroia will produce in their own ways, but not enough to carry the pitiful pitching staff. The Red Sox still have an ace in Jon Lester, but Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront are over-valued and over-rated. Ryan Dempster and John Lackey are old and barely replacement level. The Sox do not have the fire-power to contend with the rest of the east anymore and will bottom out completely this season.
A.L. West
Los Angeles Angels, 92-70
Texas Rangers, 91-71
Oakland Athletics, 84-78
Seattle Mariners, 77-85
Houston Astros, 55-107
I have been avoiding writing this part because for the first time in a few years I do not see the Rangers winning the division. With the addition of Josh Hamilton the lineup is just too potent to ignore. Mike Trout will not have a season near as good as last year, as his BABIP was an outrageous .383, and that will come down towards his career average of .350ish. However, the regression with Trout will be made up by Hamilton. I mean this lineup has three guys who have won or finished second in MVP voting in the past few years. The Pitching is a little less daunting thanks to Greinke joining the Dodgers. C.J. Wilson is douche due for regression back towards a quality year and Jered Weaver is still a good ace. Tommy Hanson, if healthy, is an under-rated part of the rotation, since his last full season without injury he was a 4.2 WAR pitcher. Ernesto Frieri is a strong closer and Ryan Madson and Scott Downs give the Angels a good set-up combo.
The main argument for Texas over the Angels is the lack of depth in LA. However, the Rangers had depth last year and the injuries still killed their rotation in the end. There is just no denying the 40/100 that will be missing from the middle of the lineup, either. Berkman will hopefully bring back a portion of that power, but he is getting old. Craig Gentry and David Murphy stand to benefit from being near every day players, but still nowhere near what Hambone had been providing. If Nelson Cruz gets a 50-game suspension, then this lineup could be in trouble, especially if Olt and Profar are not quite ready yet. The pitching is what really worries me. Although I think very highly of Yu Darvish, and Derek Holland/Matt Harrison are above-average starters for their slots, the last two spots are question marks. Can Alexi Ogando put up 160 quality innings? When will Colby Lewis be back? Who the hell is Nick Tepesch? The bullpen is no strength either. Joe Nathan is the all-time save percentage leader, but he is also a year older. Gone are Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. Robbie Ross will be asked a lot of, especially until Joakim Soria comes back from Tommy John surgery, and when he comes back how good will he be? The lineup is still top-5 in the majors, and good enough to get this team to the playoffs, but the pitching after the top-3 is just too troublesome to see this team winning the division.
I am sorry; I just do not see how some are picking this Oakland team to repeat the miracle that was the end of last season. They have one guy projected to hit over .246. One. Their lineup just will not win games for this team, as they just have a few guys with pop (Cespedes/Moss/Reddick) and no complete hitters. The rotation is what the A’s will rely on, and this group was heavily worked last season which is never good for young arms. We, in Texas, saw the regressive year by the Dutch Oven after a heavy workload year, and I expect the same from Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and A.J. Griffin. One or two of them might have good years, but for the A’s to contend again they will need all four. Oakland will get above .500 because the Astros suck, but I do not think they can contend again.
I’m tempted to switch the Mariners and A’s because the Seattle lineup is growing on me. The additions of Michael Morse (22 HR, 75 RBI, .281 AVG), Michael Saunders (17 HR/18 SB) and Kendry Morales (22 HR/.275 AVG) have completely remade the top/middle of the lineup. Kyle Seager is poised for a solid year and Jesus Montero will crank 20 bombs in the shorter fences of Safeco. If Justin Smoak and/or Dustin Ackley can finally hit their potential, this lineup could be dangerous. King Felix has been a dominant force in the A.L. for years, but he just recently received a big contract. I am worried about how that will affect his desire to still dominate. The rest of the rotation is void of any fantasy value or real value either. Blake Beaven has not made good on his promise and Joe Saunders is only slightly above replacement level.
I am seriously struggling on how to write about the Astros. Outside of Jose Altuve, no one on the roster is projected to hit above .240. Outside of Carlos Pena, no one on the roster is projected to hit more than 10 home runs. I do not care how many they hit in spring training; this team is going to suck. Badly. The rotation is full of castoffs and Bud Norris who only strikes people out and gives up home runs. Phillip Humber and Erik Bedard’s best days are behind them. I believe I thought the record for losses in for a season was in play last year and nothing has changed.
Awards:
A.L. MVP: Evan Longoria
Runner-Up: Miguel Cabrera
I think Longoria will stay healthy this season and out-slug Cabrera to the MVP.
N.L. MVP: Bryce Harper
Runner-Up: Ryan Braun
Need I remind you that Bryce Harper was more highly touted than Mike Trout, and he had a better season at age 19 than him? Ryan Braun will continue to do his thing despite the allegations.
A.L. Cy Young: Yu Darvish
Runner-Up: Justin Verlander
YUUUUUU!!! He will lead the majors in strikeouts by a wide margin, and he will drop his walk total down, therefore lowering his other metrics and getting him 20 wins. Verlander will be right with him.
N.L. Cy Young: Zack Greinke
Runner-Up: Clayton Kershaw
As I said previously, I am on the Dodgers bandwagon and I think Greinke will out duel his new teammate.
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers
Runner-Up: Jurickson Profar
Both will be called up shortly and both will produce immensely. Myers will get the edge because he will get more playing time.
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Adam Eaton
Runner-Up: Oscar Taveras
The Diamondbacks gave up on Upton to make room for Eaton and he will at least provide a good rookie year.
Playoffs:
A.L. Wild Card: Blue Jays over Rangers
N.L. Wild Card: Braves over the Reds
A.L. Divisional Round: Blue Jays over Angels 3-2; Tigers over Rays 3-2
N.L. Divisional Round: Dodgers over Brewers 3-2; Nationals over Braves 3-1
A.L. Championship: Tigers over Blue Jays 4-3
N.L. Championship: Dodgers over Nationals 4-2
World Series: Dodgers over Tigers 4-2
I just think the one-two combo of Greinke and Kershaw will be too much to overcome. That combo, along with the bounce-back/healthy years from Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford will lead the blue to the title.
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