Super Bowl Prop Bets

It is Super Bowl prop time!  For my game pick and analysis, scroll down to my last post, but this one will focus on the hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets that you can make.  The prop bet can get people in trouble.  Bookmakers have hundreds of guys who crunch every number even remotely related to the game so that there are not many easy bets.  The prop bets to focus on, are the ones that are not independent to this game (i.e. the same prop could be put in for any game).  Then, one can analyze the two teams to see if the odds are what they should be and find the value.  That is not to say that I will ignore the game-specific props, but they are more all about feel on the game rather than value.

(All of these props/lines are from sportsbook.ag)

Will either team score in the first 6 minutes of the game?

-130 NO

There tends to be a feeling out period in the Super Bowl as no one wants to fall behind.  These two defenses in particular will be playing safely in the beginning of the game.

First score of the game will be

+120 Any other score than TD

With +120 for anything other than a touchdown, that is putting the odds at about 31%.  The -140 for a touchdown first gives that about 71%.  For the season, the Ravens and 49ers combined for 60% of their scores as touchdowns and 40% field goals.  When you factor in their defenses and what they have given up, the numbers are even higher for field goals with a 57/43% split.  There is definite value on the field goal play, as you can also throw in the off chance at a safety to add to your chances.

Longest TD of game

-115 Over 44.5

Honestly, the odds on this prop are terrible, with a -115 clip either way of the bet.  However, I really like the chances of a long touchdown between the previously mentioned big play potential of the Ravens’ passing attack as well as a defensive/return touchdown possibility.

Will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the 1^st half

-240 Yes

The odds are not great as far as the two teams involved, but I am more focused on Super Bowl history.  The last four Super Bowls have a score in that time frame, as well as nine of the last ten. 

Shortest made field goal

Over 23.5 yards

With the combination of Ray Rice, Vonta Leach, Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick, and LaMichael James to run it in from the goal line, and Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to go up and get fades, I feel like this will be way over.

Both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or longer

+120 Yes

This prop coincides with the last one in the fact that I do not think there will be many short field goals.  I also see that there have been 89 field goals of over 33 yards in the games with these two teams and only 29 of the shorter variety.  There is also really good value at +120.

Over/Under jersey number of player to score first TD

+110 Over 27.5

Over 54% of conventional touchdowns (rushing/passing) were scored by players with a higher jersey number than 27.  This is a sucker’s prop bet as most people will think that the odds are higher that Gore/Rice/Kaepernick will score first, and are not accounting for the rest of the team.  I will gladly take the +110 for something that should be closer to -110.

Will there be a safety

-1100 No

This is usually one of the best bets on the board since the odds for a safety are so much lower than the odds given.  However, it did happen last year which has forced this down from -1200/-1300.  What are the odds that two Super Bowls in a row would have safeties?

Total number of different players to have a pass attempt

+250 over 2.5

If you read my pick, then you can see why I like this prop.  I think Kaepernick goes down finally, and Alex Smith comes in.  When you throw in the odds for a Tyrod Taylor special play, or maybe a reverse pass with Moss/Boldin there is a good chance of getting that third player.

Total number of different Ravens to have a rushing attempt

-120 Under 4

Let’s see, Rice and Pierce for sure, most likely Flacco too.  That leaves Leach and the receivers on a reverse.  I will take the chances that this will at least push, more than likely stay under.

What will happen first

-165 Ravens Punt (over a score)

-140 49ers Punt (over a score)

As stated before, I think there will be a feeling out period and both teams will punt once or twice before finding their footing.

Joe Flacco to have more touchdown passes than Kobe Bryant 3-pointers made

Kobe has been in a passing mood and I expect Flacco to have a big game.

Lionel Messi to have more goals than Frank Gore touchdowns

-170 0.5 more

Messi will get at least one, more than likely multiple while Gore is probably a coin flip.  I just have a feeling Messi will have a big game.

Chris Bosh points vs. Largest lead in the Super Bowl

Bosh -0.5

Bosh will probably be good for 20 points against the Raptors and I doubt the lead will get that big in the game.

Most touchdown passes

-115 Joe Flacco (over Kaepernick)

Most Passing yards

-130 -16.5 Joe Flacco

As reiterated earlier, I think Kaepernick goes down, and I think Flacco has a big game.  I will take this even with the bad odds.

Most receiving yards Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin or Randy Moss

-115 -29.5 For both

I think Randy Moss might be a non-factor while Smith and Boldin are assured of having a few catches.

More Receiving yards Ray Rice of LaMichael James

-115  -16.5 Ray Rice

Ray Rice receiving yards

-130 Over 26.5

I think Ray Rice will have a long catch or two.

Joe Flacco touchdown passes

+220 Over 2.5

Joe Flacco will throw a touchdown before an interception

-200 Touchdown

Once again, Flacco will have a big game.

Alicia Keys National anthem

-130 Over 2 minutes and 5 seconds

Seems like a give in.

Gatorade Shower

I am feeling the lime green at +550 for some weird reason.