It has been quite annoying and frustrating to see all of these Super Bowl “predictions” over the past week. Most of these “predictions” are from journalism or broadcast journalism majors, so shouldn’t they know the meaning of the word?
Prediction: to predict, as usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shred inference from facts or experience. (dictionary.com)
So if one is to give the winner of the game as the 49ers, as well as the final score, they would be making a prediction. However, if the person then rights a small paragraph qualifying how the Ravens could win as well since it is “such a close match-up” or giving reasons how their “prediction” could be wrong, then the person is not making a prediction. They are trying to play both sides of the fence, so that no matter what happens in the game the person is right in the end.
For example, Elizabeth Merril of ESPN said, “Heart says that every time the Ravens have seemed overmatched in the postseason, they’ve managed to pull out a win. Head says San Francisco is just the better team.” Can you even tell who she is picking? Kevin Jackson of ESPN said, “The Niners are the more well-rounded team, but Baltimore is the hot squad.” By qualifying that he thinks the 49ers are better, if they win his Ravens’ pick will not look as bad (to him). John Clayton picked the 49ers, but said “...It will not surprise me if they needed overtime to get the win.” By saying that, if the Ravens win, he has an out saying that he thought San Francisco would need OT, so it was that close. Mike Golic might have the most criminal of all “predictions” with his summary, “San Francisco may be the better team, but I picked the Ravens at the start of the year, and I still they have the team to do it.” Not only is it an illicit humblebrag about his preseason prediction, he basically says he thinks that San Francisco will win but he has to pick the Ravens because he did it during the preseason.
If you are going to make a prediction, pick a score, or explain why a team will win, then pick a side and stick to it! Do not waver on the fence, especially on a game like this matchup. If you are thinking that San Francisco will win, then there probably is not a doubt in your mind that their defense, running game and Colin Kaepernick will just keep it going and the Ravens are too old. If you think that Baltimore will win, then... well I will get to that. Either way, you know why you think a team will win, but are afraid to say it. It is not like this is Super Bowl V where the Cowboys and Colts were so evenly matched that the line was a Pick ‘Em and it was a last second field to break a tie and win the game for the Colts.
With that said, let’s get down to the actual game. The first thing that jumped out at me was the line. As soon as the Baltimore/New England game ended, Vegas opened the line at San Francisco -5. Within an hour or so, that line was bet down to -4, and has even hovered to -3.5 at the MGM. Do you know who bets the Super Bowl line two weeks before the actual game? People who know things and take a good value when you see it. So the sharps are all over Baltimore. The actual line also tells you something. The line-setters know that San Francisco is probably the second most publically bet team (meaning that they bring in money no matter how big the game is, or how good the team is because they have a wide fan base) to the Cowboys. Almost every Cowboys/49ers line is bumped a point or two regularly to account for the lop-sided percentage of where the bets are (not a factor in the ‘70’s or Super Bowl V). Then, you factor in that the Super Bowl is the most bet on game every year, the bump probably is closer to 2.5 or 3 points. So when you factor the public bump, the line of what Vegas actually thinks the game stands at is about 1 or even a half point.
You know what I take away from the line? Baltimore is the actual favorite in the systems that Vegas use to accurately predict the outcomes of games. The bookmakers just know though that if they open with a Ravens’ favorite, the amount of San Francisco money would be so obscene that if the 49ers did win, then Vegas would get absolutely hammered. I mean, the point of the line is to get even money on both sides, not to accurately predict the outcome. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me as far as which side of the fence I am on.
Now, the actual football that will be played also favors the Ravens in my opinion. Baltimore has been winning in the playoffs off of the high-mid range to deep passing game with Flacco’s huge arm, Torrey Smith’s speed, and Anquan Boldin’s unrivaled ball ability in the air. The average NFL game saw just fewer than three passes of twenty yards or more per team. Against Denver’s top rated (against the pass as well the deep ball) defense, Baltimore had five plays of 19 yards or more, including 59- and 70-yard touchdowns. Two weeks ago, Baltimore got a double-digit lead early in the second half and did not need the deep pass as much, but still managed four completions over twenty yards. In the Ravens’ first playoff game against Indianapolis, Flacco connected on SEVEN 20+ yard completions, along with an 18-yard touchdown. The Ravens were fifth in the league this season in that stat category.
San Francisco is known for its vaunted defense with six All-Pro standouts. However, only one of their All-Pro’s is a defensive back, and it was a Safety. The 49ers did not give up many long completions during the season; however the quarterbacks they faced in their division had some of the fewest 20-yard passes of any NFL team (Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson, and Kevin Kolb/John Skelton). San Francisco also got to face Jason Campbell, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Christian Ponder, and Mark Sanchez. That means that eleven of their sixteen games were played against terrible deep ball passers, all in the bottom ten of the league. Against the top half of the deep ball teams in the league, San Francisco gave up no fewer than four and an average of five per game (25 of their 38 given up where in those five games). Against more elite passing teams in the playoffs, San Francisco has been burned. Atlanta completed six passes of 20 or more yards, and Green Bay completed five of 19 or more yards. With that said, Torrey Smith is faster than Julio Jones and Anquan Boldin is better in the air than James Jones/Greg Jennings.
Now when San Francisco has the ball, they have a public perception to have an advantage due to their pistol rushing attack and the arm/poise of Colin Kaepernick. The pistol has been quite successful the past two games, but I see that coming to an end. Green Bay was wholly unprepared for the rushing attack because San Francisco had used it sparingly in the previous two games. Atlanta was then prepared to stop Kaepernick, so Jim Harbaugh threw in his genius stroke: the option blocker. The pistol zone read is similar to the normal shotgun zone read in that the quarterback reads the defensive end: the end crashes, quarterback keeps; end hesitates, give to the back. What the pistol allows is a lead blocker on the zone read. Now the Falcons accounted for the blocker, but Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman give the blocker the option on who to block. Rather than just blindly lead the hole for the back or seal the end for the quarterback, the blocker makes the read as well. Should the end crash, the blocker than leads the quarterback and takes the linebacker responsible for the QB. Should the end hesitate, the lead blocker leads through the hole and takes on the filling middle backer.
Atlanta did not recognize this, causing Frank Gore to run untouched into the end zone twice. The Ravens are the smartest defense in the league because of the experience between Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs. They will be ready for it, and I suspect they will put a spy on the blocker: the spy will go wherever the lead blocker goes, therefore putting the numbers back in favor of the defense. Now I know that Jim Harbaugh will have some new wrinkle, but there really is not much more he can add to the pistol that would drastically change the Ravens’ game plan. The Ravens also adapt better than most teams, as they proved in their playoff wins against Tom Brady and Peyton Manning already this postseason.
Should the Ravens prevail, Joe Flacco will then have his ninth career playoff victory, good for ninth place all time in terms of quarterbacks. He is just 28. Are we sure that Joe Flacco is not discreetly becoming one of the top-5 quarterbacks in the league? People call Eli Manning elite and one of the best because of his post-season success. A win Sunday would give Flacco more playoff victories, but he is four years younger. In Flacco’s last seven post season games, he has fifteen touchdowns and only two interceptions, while completing over 60% of his passes, and almost 250 yards a game. Of course Flacco benefits from having a great team around him, but outside of the Ravens 2000 Super Bowl run, Baltimore has just one non-Flacco post season win in 12 seasons. He is also a dropped pass from starting his second Super Bowl. Maybe I had the quarterback from the 2008 Draft that was going to make The Leap this postseason wrong.
Lastly, I think Colin Kaepernick will go down. The Ravens are going to make Kaepernick beat them and his arm has been vastly over-rated. He made one great pass to Crabtree in the Green Bay game, but he was off target numerous times against Atlanta. He ended up with a decent game because the Falcons forgot to cover Vernon Davis several times so he just had to loft the ball out there (even then, he limited Davis’ YAC a couple of times). Baltimore will not make such mistakes. Kaepernick will then be forced to run the ball, and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Paul Kruger and Bernard Pollard will make him pay. There will be an Alex Smith sighting (good odds on the over 2.5 quarterbacks!) and his confidence has been shattered.
The underdog has covered in eight of the last eleven Super Bowls. The lower seed is undefeated in the last seven Super Bowls against the spread. The Ravens’ defense is healthier than it has been all season (especially Haloti Ngata). Baltimore has deceivingly been more impressive the past two games than San Francisco. Justin Tucker can handle pressure situations (ask an Aggie) and David Akers has the yips. Ray Lewis will do his dance with some deer antlers on his helmet, but Flacco will get the MVP with a couple of deep touchdowns to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as well as a screen that Ray Rice takes the distance. Ravens 31-21.
Prop Bets Coming Sunday!!
Last Week: 0-1-1 (Although I actually bet on the Falcons at +4.5)
Playoffs: 5-4-1
Overall: 149-108-7
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