NFL Week 11 Picks

Not a good week last week, although I feel like if Cutler/Big Ben would not have gotten hurt, I could have squeaked out a .500 week.  The trends were decent as the home underdogs went 2-2 against the spread, while the touchdown underdogs were 3-1.  I definitely had a few teams (Jets, Dolphins, Panthers) over-rated, and under-rated a few more (Ravens, Seahawks, Patriots).  I will try to correct that his week.

REDSKINS -3 over Eagles

The start of the Nick Foles era in Philly, and the Eagles’ fans are going to get a rude awakening.  I will take the number 2 overall pick in the draft over a third rounder.  The Eagles are probably done, and might just win one more game this season (in Dallas to ruin their slim playoff hopes).

LIONS +3 over Packers

The Packers are absolutely decimated by injuries and are asking a little bit too much of Aaron Rodgers.  Now while if you want to ask too much of someone, might as well be the best player on the planet.  With that said, the Lions need this game significantly more than the Packers.  A loss could end their season as the rest of the rest of their games are against playoff caliber competition.  Calvin Johnson has to get some touchdowns at some point right?

Cardinals +10 over FALCONS

These double-digit lines have been killing me.  The Saints did show some of Atlanta’s weakness, while they showed their own Red Zone issues.  Those issues are not good against a stout defense, so I think Arizona can keep this one close.

Bucs -1 over PANTHERS

It is time to start believing in Tampa Bay.  Four wins in their past five games with just the fluky loss to New Orleans.  Only three teams have not lost a game by more than a touchdown: Atlanta, New England and Tampa Bay.  Josh Freeman is looking like a star.  If the Bucs can go 2-1 over the next three, be sitting at 7-5 going into a stretch of three games against sub-.500 teams and a last game against the Falcons who might not need it…

Browns +8 over COWBOYS

Let’s not kid ourselves; Dallas was lucky to get out of Philly.  That was a close game against a bad team with its backup quarterback until a fortunate string of defensive/special teams touchdowns.  The Browns have been in every game they have played this year, surprisingly.  I think they can keep it close.

RAMS -3 over Jets

I am done with the Jets.  Just finished.  Next.

Colts +9 over PATRIOTS

Both teams are 6-3, and have very similar point differentials over the past four games.  The past four games are what really matter, since Andrew Luck is now finding his groove.  I think these two teams are closer than the line says, so I will take the touchdown’s worth of value.

Jaguars +16 over TEXANS

I am not sure if any NFL team should be favored by over two touchdowns over another.  Even if it is one of the top 3 teams against one of the 3 worst, and the better team is at home.  I just refuse to bet against a team getting 16 points… but I will tease the hell out of them.

Bengals -3.5 over CHIEFS

I know I should go the other way, in line with the opposite theory.  Cincinnati played their best game of the season (possibly best game possible).  Can they do it 2 weeks in a row?.....

CHIEFS +3.5 over Bengals

I cannot give more than a field goal, to the Bengals on the road.  I will hopefully get that half point of value.

Saints -4 over RAIDERS

New Orleans is on a roll and Drew Brees is in the zone again.  Those two things are bad for the Oakland defense.  I still think they line is a little too high, but I will not be betting this game’s line… I will be abusing the over.

Chargers +8 over BRONCOS

I know I should probably believe in Denver’s blowout ability in this game, but I do not want to leave this one double-digit line on the table.  San Diego can keep this game close… I think.

Ravens -3 over STEELERS

With no Big Ben in the lineup, I think the Ravens will win the game, so I will take the small line.  Byron Leftwich is not terrible, but he is still probably worse than Mark Sanchez making him the worst quarterback starting a game on Sunday.

49ERS +5 over Bears

This was the line Monday morning when I jumped on it, so I will go with it.  There is not a lineup on my site right now, but I figure it will settle around San Fran -3 or -4.  I would probably take them there, too, since Jason Campbell did not look good the other night.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Texans -6, Saints/Raiders Over 44, Falcons Pick ‘Em

Others I Like:

Redskins +7, Packers/Lions Over 42, Cowboys +2, Rams/Jets Under 49, Steelers/Ravens Under 50, Bucs/Panthers Over 38

Last Week: 6-8

Overall: 81-61-3