NFL Week 10 Picks

Not a strong showing last week, with an under-.500 record and a couple of my misses were big misses (why did I pick against the team I have thought is the best overall all year???).  My teasers continued to be strong, going 8-1.  The trends were murderous to gamblers last week, with home underdogs finished 1-4 against the spread, and touchdown-underdogs going winless, 0-3 against the number.  The NFC did bounce back with a 3-0 inter-conference record, but the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest trends were no help at all.  I am going to hope that last week was more of an aberration and not the norm now, and continue to go with the analyzed trends.  There are 3 double-digit spreads and four home-underdogs in play, not to mention five inter-conference matchups.  I Tweeted the Colts’ victory last night, to get a solid start on my week.  Indy is a team that might need to be ridden, as the Chuckstrong factor might be the strongest motivational tactic yet.

PATRIOTS -11 over Bills

New England is 2-2 against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more, so they might be an exception to the trend.  The Bills also suck, and I have to start Ryan Fitzpatrick on A Rodg’s bye week, so sorry Buffalo I have doomed you.

VIKINGS +2 over Lions

For some reason, my guy has not had this line up all week.  Vegas has Detroit as a 2 point favorite on the road, which I think the line should be switched.  While the Lions did look good last week, they were playing the Jaguars who the Colts then demolished last night.  The line probably has something to do with the fact that the Vikings lost by ten to Seattle last week and Detroit beat the Seahawks by 4 the week before.  However, Minnesota played IN Seattle, where the Seahawks are a completely different team.  AP is starting to get in a groove and I think he has another monster day.

BENGALS +4 over Giants

Are the Giants really any good?  They are 6-3, but let’s look at their wins.  They beat Dallas by a finger, in a game that the Cowboys tried to hand to them.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Redskins at home.  They had to come back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Browns.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Bucs, also at home.  They blew out Carolina, the worst team in the NFC, and San Francisco on the road.  I see one quality win and then wins over sub-.500 teams.  They have two losses to sub-.500 teams as well (Cowboys and Eagles).  I think the 49ers’ game was more of a mental thing.  I’ll take the points.

BUCS -3 over Chargers

Tampa Bay won by double-digits for the second straight week last week, and their offense is firing on all cylinders.  The Bucs have averaged 36 points a game the last four games since their bye week, and still do not have a bad loss.  San Diego’s only wins over their last 7 weeks were both to Kansas City, the worst team in a decade.  Josh Freeman will probably have a monster game since I picked Fitzpatrick over him to start this week.

PANTHERS +4 over Broncos

Denver is 4-0 as favorites against the spread this year, but I think Carolina kind of figured out how to win last week.  They need to pound the ball as much as possible with their four different rushing threats.  The Broncos let the Bengals hang around last week and barely covered at the end.  So I think the Broncos win this one by a field goal, with Carolina keeping it close by controlling the clock/ball.

DOLPHINS -6 over Titans

When Tennessee loses, they get whooped.  Outside of a close loss to the Colts, in the Titans’ other five losses, they have lost by an average of over 25 points a game.  Do I think they will beat Miami on the road? No.  So I do not think they can cover.  Miami still has looked like a really good team since the second week of the season, with no losses by more than a field goal.

Raiders +8 over RAVENS

Since losing LaDarius Webb and Ray Lewis, the Ravens got absolutely annihilated by the Texans, and squeaked by the pitiful Browns with a misleading final score.  If Cleveland had any sort of Red Zone Offense, they win that game easily.  I do not know if Baltimore should be giving more than a touchdown against anyone.

SAINTS +3 over Falcons

I think that Atlanta will lose one of their next couple of games, and it will be the best thing for them (and my fantasy team with Matt Ryan/Roddy White).  Over their past six games, only one win was by more than a touchdown, and none of the teams have even a .500 record.  For as bad as I thought the Saints were at the beginning of the season, they have only one loss by a touchdown or more.  One of their losses was in overtime to the hapless Chiefs, which seems fluky.  Another was a one-point loss on the road to Green Bay.  Then they lost to RG3 in week 1, when their interim, interim coach was getting used to head coaching and no one knew how the Redskins would use Griffin.  Now the Saints are rolling, and I think they get the upset here.

Jets +7 over SEAHAWKS

I am going with the opposite theory here.  The Jets looked way worse than they are in their last game, and Seattle looked better than they are.  This pushed this line to a touchdown, which seems too high.  The Jets are also coming off of a bye week, so expect some sort of Tebow trick up their sleeves. 

EAGLES +1.5 over Cowboys

The Eagles opened as a 2.5 point favorite Monday morning before their loss to the Saints, and that line has now moved a full 4 points the other way.  These teams are both fatally flawed on the offensive line, forcing both quarterbacks into killer interceptions and fumbles.  The Cowboys have a better defense, but the Lincoln Financial Field gives Dallas fits.  I would say this is more of a Pick ‘Em game, so I will take the extra point and a half.

Rams +11.5 over 49ERS

This line just seems a few points too high.  The Rams have been playing progressively worse their last 5 games, while the 49ers were playing better.  Both teams are coming off of a bye, so I think it will help the Rams more.  St. Louis also is getting Danny Amendola back to help give Sam Bradford an underneath relief valve.  San Francisco will win, but the Rams have high potential for a backdoor cover.

BEARS -1 over Texans

I went against them last week and will not do it again.  This team is really good.  They may not have Charles Tillman, but their defense is pretty deep so I do not think it will have that big of an effect.  I think that the Chicago defense will smother the zone-blocking and running game of Houston, and Urlacher will be in beast-mode all night.

STEELERS -12.5 over Chiefs

Pittsburgh has won all three of its home games by an average of 11 points, and none of those teams were nearly as bad as Kansas City.  The Chiefs have still yet to lead a game in regulation, with their one win being by a field goal in overtime.  Pittsburgh is starting to pick up steam with three wins in a row against solid teams so maybe I was wrong about them.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -1, 49ers -1.5, Steelers -2.5

Others I Like:

Falcons/Saints Over 43, Bills/Patriots over 42, Chargers/Bucs Over 37; Saints +13, Seahawks/Jets Under 49, Raiders +18

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 75-53-3