NFL Week 17 Picks

So I came back down to Earth a little last week with a sub-.500 week for the first time in almost 2 months.  I’m assured of at least a profitable season overall with picks, as I gear up for the playoffs.  I also may have jinxed Romo last week, with my extended talk of trading him, and then he suffers a season-ending injury shortly thereafter.

            As far as week 17 goes, I am disappointed to say that I am still in one fantasy league championship (two-weeks per playoff matchup) and it is dumb.  I have Jamaal Charles and Calvin Johnson, which neither will play much (if at all) Sunday.  Week 17 should be relegated in every fantasy format to a different contest or nothing at all.  My personal theory is to make it a separate entity: you have the championship in week 16, and then week 17 has a side pool.  You can have either the most points for the week out of everyone in the league, or of people who did not get a payout.  This would keep people interested longer throughout the season even if they started off badly.

            On a happier note, The In-Laws did win my big-money league championship, fading Nick Foles in the end.  It did not look good after the first quarter of the Eagles/Bears game, but thankfully he slowed down and we pulled out a narrow victory.  We made the call of the season, starting Reggie Bush AND Joique Bell rather than Bush/Danny Woodhead.  I would have liked to see any “fantasy expert” that would have done that.

            As far as real football goes, I am trying to avoid talking about it since my heart/dreams/emotions/hopes were shattered along with Romo’s vertebrae.  Whatever happens Sunday night should not effect how someone looks at Tony.  The Cowboys could still win the game, but the defense will have to show up.  However, if Romo was in then there is a possibility that he could win the game in spite of the defense. 

FALCONS +6 over Panthers

I think the team will rally for Tony G’s last game ever and keep it close enough.  Speaking of Gonzalez, this season would have been a whole lot more interesting had the Chiefs traded for him to give him a final run as well as boost their chances to go deep in the playoffs.

Ravens +7 over BENGALS

Baltimore needs the game a little bit more than Cincinnati.  The Bengals hopes for a first round bye are slim, while the Ravens can win and then have the best odds of the jumble of 4 teams to get in the last wild card spot.

Texans +7 over TITANS

Would it not be just the epitome of the Texans’ season to win the last game and lose the first overall pick? 

Jaguars +10.5 over COLTS

I’ve given up on thinking logically with either of these teams.  Week in and week out they defy trends and logic.  I will take the massive spread as double-digit dogs are still above water on the year.

Jets +6 over DOLPHINS

The Jets’ defense has been surprisingly good this season, and Rex Ryan really should not be fired for the lack of offense with the awful quarterbacks he was given to work with.  I think New York’s defense will shut down Miami and lead them to a win.

VIKINGS +3 over Lions

Detroit is in a free-fall and now it is looking like Calvin Johnson will not play.  Matthew Stafford has looked abysmal, and I cannot believe that some people still would rank him above Romo/Rivers and a few other quarterbacks in the league.  With no Megatron, he is pedestrian. 

Redskins 3.5 over GIANTS

Both of these teams played surprisingly well last week, however their competition was nothing to cry home about.  I think that New York will not exactly leave it all on the field as they at least have their first round draft pick still. 

Browns +7 over STEELERS

Pittsburgh is still over-rated and giving a touchdown to a decent defense with that offense is nothing I want a part of.  Every game they play is within a touchdown it seems, so I will take the value.

BEARS +3 over Packers

With Rodgers and Cobb back, the line flipped more than a touchdown.  What are the odds though, that Cutler gets hurt, putting McCown back in and giving the offense the spark it has missed the last two weeks? Even if Cutler stays in, I do not want to go against a home-dog in a winner-take-all game.

RAIDERS +11 over Broncos

The Broncos should put this away early, but I still like Oakland’s backdoor cover potential.  Rashad Jennings has turned into a possible second round pick in fantasy drafts next year, and Denver will be resting an already depleted defense.

Bills +7.5 over PATRIOTS

New England obliterated Baltimore last week, but before that each other their previous six games had been decided by 4 points or less.  As injured as their roster is, I cannot see them putting together two straight blowouts.

Buccaneers +11.5 over SAINTS

The theory that a team, which NEEDS to win, will blow out a team playing an insignificant game is very overblown.  This theory has pushed this line a few points too high so I will take the value with Tampa.

CARDINALS +1 over 49ers

I am a believer, especially in Arizona at home.  I am not a believer in Colin Kaepernick and the rest of the San Francisco offense.  The Cardinals’ defense is legit, and I see a big game from Patrick Peterson: he always seems to live up to the bright lights.

CHARGERS -9.5 over Chiefs

Jamaal Charles will not play much at all, along with the rest of the Kansas City starters.  The Chargers still have an outside shot at the 6-seed and I think they blow this one out early.

Rams +11.5 over Seahawks

With the way the rest of the day plays out in my mind, Seattle will have the 1-seed locked up so this game will mean nothing to them.  Should San Francisco win, I might have to flip this back towards the Seahawks.

COWBOYS +7 over Eagles

The line has moved a full 10 points now since the Romo injury was announced.  I just cannot get past the last time they played: the Eagles were shut down by an already hurting Cowboys’ defense.  Yes Foles has progressed as well as the rest of the line, but there is definite “Ewing Theory” (a team rallying around the loss of its best player) potential here.  Either way, getting a full touchdown at home is hitting almost 75% of the time so I am not going to buck the trend. 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Cowboys/Eagles OVER 41, Broncos -1, Panthers +4

Others I Like:

Patriots +2.5, Ravens +17, Cardinals +11, Rams +21.5, Chiefs/Chargers OVER 33.5, Bears +10

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 129-107-7