Not a great first week, but I’ll take an above-.500 Week 1 any year and going 9-0 on teaser props. It is by far the hardest week to handicap because there is just too much unknown and variance. The one big takeaway I have, is I am never laying double digits (or even a touchdown) for an NFL team again. There is just too little of a difference in talent to spot a team a touchdown or more. I started that by taking the Jets last night, and will continue to do so the rest of the season.
Chargers +7.5 over EAGLES
As juicy as Phillip Rivers on a short week with a cross-country trip sounds, I am sticking to my new dog-philosophy and going with San Diego. I also think that each week the Philly offense will be figured out more and more. Unluckily for the Chargers, the Eagles did not have to show as much last week because they jumped out to a big lead.
Browns +7 over RAVENS
I would have taken Cleveland here anyway, whether it was 5 or 7. The Browns have an excellent defense and Joe Haden really has become a top corner in the league. If he is shutting Torrey Smith down, and the front seven is holding Ray Rice, Baltimore has some trouble.
Titans +10 over TEXANS
It used to be that week 2 was the easiest week to gamble on because of the over reactions from week 1. The majority of the time, nothing is as good or bad as it looked the first week. However, Vegas is starting to prey on that train of thought, and given a team who looked bad (Houston) a huge line over a team that surprised (Tennessee). I think the line is pushing for the “Second Week Rebound” thinkers to take the Texans, so I’ll take the Titans and the points.
COLTS -3 over Dolphins
Andrew Luck is pretty good at home and Ryan Tannehill is not on the ro-… wait, Luck barely beat the Raiders at home and Tannehill won a road game in Cleveland last week? That goes against their trends, but like I said previously, you do not want to put too much stock in week 1. I’ll stay with Luck and the Colts.
BILLS +3 over Panthers
Not even taking last week’s games into account, I would take the Bills at home as underdogs here. Cam Newton has always had trouble on the road and E.J. Manuel might surprise some people this season. I also hope that there is no way that C.J. Spiller has back to back terrible weeks.
Rams +7 over FALCONS
This is quite similar to the Titans/Texans game, in a touchdown spread for a team that did not look good last week over a team that did. I think this might be a shootout, and the Rams have strong backdoor cover potential.
Redskins +8 over PACKERS
This new gambling philosophy is going to make or break me this week with this many 7+ point lines. I think this will also be a shootout between Rodgers and RG3. It took Griffin a half to get his feet under him, but he looked better as the game went on. Just like the previous game, I think Green Bay wins, but Washington sneaks in the back door.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys
The Chiefs are the real deal; I think with their schedule there is little doubt they will make the playoffs. Dallas is hurting and DeMarco Murray has not even been nicked up yet. The Cowboys are not forcing 6 turnovers every game, so the defense will have to step up. Andy Reid has always had their number though, so I’ll go with K.C.
Vikings +7 over BEARS
Chicago had one of the more impressive wins over the Bengals last week, so I think they are getting too many points now. I am not high on the Vikings, but I think they will keep it close with the Bears and just feed AP AD.
BUCCANEERS +4.5 over Saints
Another philosophy I am sticking to is a home dog by more than a field goal. I am really worried about this one though, because as much as I do not want to take information from last week, Tampa lost to the freakin’ Jets. However, since I do have Drew Brees on my big money fantasy team, I’m sure he will have a bad week this week.
CARDINALS +2 over Lions
Last week was a little satisfying in that I drafted Reggie Bush on all five of my fantasy teams (all PPR). In all five drafts, people tried to tell me I was reaching for him or that he was going to be terrible. It may be just one game, but if he’s healthy in this offense, he’s a top-5 PPR back. Period. With that said, I think the Cardinals defense will keep the Lions at bay. Patrick Peterson is one of the few corners that can match Megatron (somewhat) physically. I’ll take the home dog.
Jaguars +6 over RAIDERS
The Raiders should not be favored by 6 points over anyone. Next.
GIANTS +6 over Broncos
There is one takeaway from week 1 that I can guarantee will not happen again: Peyton will not throw for 7 touchdowns. I also do not believe that Julius Thomas will continue as a top-5 tight end. The Ravens kept their safeties in a shell over the top of Demayius/Decker, opening up the middle for Julius. That mistake will not be made again, and the Giants start this week limiting him. I would still take the Broncos straight up, but the Giants to cover.
49ers +3 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL, so the line is usually shifted more than the normal 3 points. So that means that Vegas thinks San Francisco is actually a better team on a neutral field the Seattle. I have also been against Kaepernick continuing his run of success so much that it seems likely that he will maintain.
Steelers +7 over BENGALS
The Steelers have already been decimated by injuries and the Bengals know that this is a crucial home game I they want to make the playoffs. Knowing that, it just seems like one of those Ben Rapelsberger games that he throws for 150 yards and a late touchdown to beat a battered Cincinnati team 13-10.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Chiefs +7, 49ers +13, Raiders/Jaguars OVER 28
Others I Like:
Chargers +17.5, Falcons +3, Broncos/Giants OVER 44, Giants +16, Steelers +17, Titans +19
Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 9-7-1
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