Cowboys Schedule Analysis: First Look

Here is an email exchange that Bryan and I had about the Cowboys schedule and how it looks as of before the draft.  Yes I know it's super early, but football is a year-round sport now, so we have to talk about something.

@ NY Giants

Michael: So let’s start with the first game of the year, as the Boys travel to the New Meadowlands to take on the defending champions.  The Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs as he is in San Francisco now, but it was Eli that killed Dallas last year.  Eli will not have Mario Manningham, which should help and hopefully the Cowboys draft a corner in the first couple of rounds.  I still can’t see the Cowboys winning this game, strictly because it is on NBC.  Dallas is 0-7 the past two seasons and 1-8 over the past three when they play on NBC.  And there’s always Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi.

Bryan: Although I feel NY has gone backwards and Dallas has progressed I have to agree with your stance. It doesn’t help the Cowboys when considering that the last 11 Super Bowl champions are undefeated in their opener the following year. I am looking to see a solid game out of the Cowboys, but to lose a close one. My line… 24-20

@ Seattle

M: So both of us have them down to start 0-1.  The next game is on the opposite side of the country in Seattle.  Normally this would be deathly week of flying from Dallas to New York, back to Dallas, then Seattle, but since the opener is on a Wednesday, the Cowboys will have a few extra days of rest.  Seattle was the Matt Flynn (who I like but not as much as the league did off of his one game against the pitiful Lions’ secondary) sweepstakes winner and I like what they are starting to build.  If Sidney Rice comes around and Marshawn Lynch can still pound away then this is an above average offense.  However, I think that they will need time to mold and feel each other out, so the second game of the season is a good time to play the Seahawks.  I think the Cowboys will pull this one out, but the ruckus crowd will keep it within a field goal.

B: I agree with nearly everything you say except the final score. Flynn is an improvement over Jackson, but that isn’t saying much. The Cowboys will struggle against Lynch, but unless Seattle can make a huge offensive splash on draft day I don’t see them being able to keep up. I will take the ‘Boys at -7.5.

Tampa Bay

M: Alright so we both have them at 1-1 going into their first home game against Tampa Bay.  The Bucs took a major step back and seemed to completely give up on their coach at the end of last season which got him fired.  Josh Freeman had the regression one could expect from his phenomenal 2010.   They have the ability to take an impact player with the 5^th pick in the draft, but I doubt that impact should be felt by week 3.  I am also pessimistic about Greg Schiano’s first season as an NFL coach.  The hire puzzled me when it happened and still puzzles me now.  This is probably the easiest game on the schedule so I’m taking Dallas by double digits plus.

B: Although Tampa will improve in the short term under the Ra-ra Schiano it will not be enough to get past Dallas.  Like Dallas, Tampa has OL issues, especially at tackle. I expect Trent Richardson to be off the board by pick 5, so he will be unable to help stop the strong Cowboys pass rush. I expect the Bucs to take Claiborne in the draft, who will help defensively. However, Claiborne is not a Patrick Peterson. Cowboys by double digits.

Chicago

M: Alright so we agree that they will be 2-1 going into the week 4 home game against the Bears.  This might be the hardest game to predict this early, because we don’t know how Forte will be after his knee injury, or how well Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler click together again.  If the Bears take Kendall Wright in the draft, Forte is 100%, and Michael Bush pounds away like he did last year for the Raiders, then this might be the scariest offense in the NFC.  Their defense is aging, and I don’t know how much longer Urlacher and Peppers can keep up their high level of play.  This will be a shootout, but I’m taking the Bears with an inference that they do take Wright, Forte is healthy and Cutler/Marshall click quickly.

B: You’re speaking my mind; Romo will have to have a career day in order to pull this one off. I expect the Bears to be a serious contender in the NFC. As long as Marshall stays out of jail he will go for 100yds and a score. Last year Cutler had Chicago at the #2 seed with a horrid receiving core before getting injured. With the addition of Marshall, Wright and Bush the Bears are a tough matchup for any defense, much less a rebuilding Cowboys secondary. I see this as being close until late in the second half with a crucial Romo TO. Bears steal a close game in Dallas.

BYE WEEK

@ Baltimore

M: So we both have the Cowboys at 2-2 entering the bye.  In week 6, they have a tough road test at the Baltimore Ravens.  This is the team that was one stripped catch in the end zone from being in the Super Bowl (or a missed 30-yarder to have a chance) and I think they would have been a deadly matchup against the Giants and won it all.  They were also undefeated at home last year going 9-0 including the playoffs.  In fact, the last time they lost at home was December 5^th of 2010.  This is a tough team with the best all around back in football in Ray Rice and a very serviceable (albeit not elite) Joe Flacco with a Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith out wide.  Their defense seems to be ageless as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed keep trucking away.  I want to say that the Cowboys could sneak up and steal a win, but it’ll take a Ray Rice injury or Reed/Lewis to really have a drop off.  Ravens by a touchdown.

B: I feel like the Cowboys get the short straw as far as bye weeks go every year. I’m sure there is a method to it, but that is how it seems in my mind.

As far as the Ravens go, they were my pick to win it all last year. Also, the only thing Baltimore has lost is 365 days on that aging defense. With a deep WR draft coming up Baltimore should be able to replace Lee Evans rather easily. I don’t see much of a chance for the Cowboys here. The Ravens may not blow it open just because it isn’t their style, but they will get the W one way or the other.

@ Carolina

M: So we both have Dallas at below .500 for the first time at 2-3 going into the road game against Carolina.  This is a must-win in my mind if the Cowboys want to make the playoffs.  They have a murderous stretch of 6 games and the Panthers are the weakest team in that stretch.  Cam Newton was an absolute superstar as a rookie and exceeded pretty much everyone’s expectations.  They could use a second receiving option to Steve Smith as well as help on defense which they should get some in the first round.  I still don’t think the Panthers are quite there yet, and am happy that the Cowboys play them in the first half of the season because I feel like Carolina will make a late season push to build momentum for 2013 when they will be ready to contend.  Cowboys by 4.

B: Carolina is dangerous with Newton, but the defense has too many holes especially in the secondary. Expect Dez Bryant to have a big game here as the two young superstars trade blows. In the end the Cowboys are a better all-around team at this point. Cowboys control the game from the third quarter on and win the game by a touchdown.

NY Giants

M: Alright, so we still agree and have the Cowboys back at 3-3 going into their second meeting with the Giants, this time at home.  The Giants have owned the new Cowboys Stadium ever since they spoiled the opening of it.  However, the home game last year saw Dallas really take it to them and open up a late 4^th quarter lead before Eli Manning did Eli Manning things as it kick-started their Super Bowl run.  I think the Cowboys will have payback on their minds and pull out a close on by a couple of points.

B: This game is dependent on what kind of depth the Giants can put behind Bradshaw. Without a solid backup the Cowboys will pull it out in the end. If the Giants sign or draft a viable short yardage back it will be the same old story, a Giants win in Jerry-World.   Give me the Cowboys for the moment. I could change my mind after the draft.

@ Atlanta

M: Alright so that puts both us thinking Dallas will be 4-3 going into a Sunday night road game in Atlanta.  Now Atlanta may seem like a tough team based off of their playoff appearance last year and 10-6 record with virtually everybody back, but they did not beat a playoff team last season.  With that said, it’s a bad matchup for the Cowboys.  Roddy White and Julio Jones provide huge mismatches on the outside, and their defense is good enough to keep the Cowboys in check.  Since it is in the Georgia Dome, I’ll give the edge to Atlanta by a field goal.

B: This is where we split. Both offenses are stellar and will score a ton of points. However I think Jenkins makes the play of the game to give the ball back to the Cowboys late. This game could easily go either way, but I feel like the Cowboys will finally nut up here and steal a road game against a quality opponent.

@ Philadelphia

M: Alright so I’ve got them ‘Boys at 4-4 and you have them at 5-3 going into the first show down of the year against the dreaded and feared Eagles, in Philly.  This marks the end of that ridiculous six game stretch of quality opponents, and the second straight road game for Dallas, but Philly will be coming off a short week after a Monday Night Football game in New Orleans.  Everyone’s “Dream Team” going into last season, the Eagles fell flat on their face out of the gates.  I see no such let down this season, and if Michael Vick is healthy I’m going to have to give this to the birds by ten.

B: I have to agree with you here. Even without a healthy Vick the Eagles always play Dallas tough. I see a W for Philly even if Andy Reid is on his way out the door.

Cleveland

M: So you have Dallas at 5-4 and I have them at 4-5 as they hit the stretch run with 5 of their last 7 games at home.  The first one up is the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns were a trendy pick to make a playoff run last year, but it fizzled as Peyton Hillis was unfocused and Colt McCoy was concussed severely.  This team will be quarterbacked by a kid from Texas, whether it’s McCoy or they reach on Tannehill in the draft.  Either way this should be an easy W for the Cowboys.  However, the Browns are coming off of their bye week and they could take Trent Richardson who could help McCoy out greatly.  I think with the extra week of preparation the Browns can keep it close, but the Cowboys still win by a touchdown.

B: I have nothing to add here, you hit my opinion to a T

Washington

M: So that leaves the Cowboys at 6-4 and 5-5 in your and my opinions respectively.  This leads into Dallas’ first crack against RG III and the Redskins on Thanksgiving.  Washington is a great spot for Griffin: Helu looks to be a viable every down back, solid core of receivers in Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, Jabar Gaffney and the newly signed Pierre Garcon, and a veteran head coach in Shanahan.  The offensive line was bad last year, but they have made some upgrades and RGIII might be the most elusive quarterback ever.  This offense will score, but name one defender on the Redskins besides Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher… Go! Yeah, you would have to Wikipedia it just like I did.  I think Griffin will have a huge game in his homecoming, but the Cowboys in a shootout in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

B: At this point in the season I expect the Cowboys to finally start playing like they were expected to for the past two seasons. A dominant showing on both sides of the ball will welcome RGIII to one of the NFL’s premier rivalries. A solid win by two scores gets the momentum going for the stretch run.

Philadelphia

M: Don’t sleep on RGIII.  After Cam’s year last season, I’m never under estimating the mobile quarterback in his rookie year where defenses pack the box.  Now we are at 7-4 and 6-5 as Dallas hosts Philly for their second meeting of the season.  Very tricky game: Philly always plays in Dallas well, but the Cowboys have the extra rest from Thanksgiving.  Vick is usually petering off near this point in the season from all the hits he has taken, but the game is on NBC.  I’m going to go with a gambling rule of thumb for the NFL, and that is if a team is coming off a Monday night game and playing on the road, bet against them.  Not only does Philly have a short week, but combined with Dallas’ long week and getting to stay at home the whole time, I think Dallas wins big as the Eagles mail it in.  By my count I’d put that at 9-2 or 8-3 coming in, so the game won’t mean as much to them.

B: If the Eagles get a hot start and are going to the playoffs then Dallas has no chance, Philly has too much talent. If DeSean Jackson is bitching and Vick is banged up then Dallas will pull of a victory here. However, you must also contemplate the health of Tony Romo, as he too has been known to be injury prone. I will take Dallas at home based on my origins alone.

@ Cincinnati

M: Alright so now you have Dallas at 8-4 and I have them at 7-5 as they travel to take on the surprise playoff team of last season, the Cincinnati Bengals.  Now the Bengals are making progress to put together a good team, but their playoff appearance should be taken with a grain of salt like the Falcons: the Bengals did not beat a playoff team all of last season (their best win was against the Jake Locker-led Titans).  Their home field advantage will be slightly diminished in that they have a late game in San Diego, their furthest flight, the Sunday before.  I do think the Cowboys might overlook the Bengals as they will have the Steelers coming in the next weekend.  With all that said, I’m not sold on the Bengals just yet; they will need a phenomenal draft and the Cowboys have a bad one for me to change my mind.  Cowboys by ten.

B: I also think this could be an oversight game for the cowboys. However, the Bengals are notorious for failing to put together consecutive quality seasons. If Cedric Benson leaves via FA things will get much tougher for the ginger signal caller. I do not expect the law firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, to have the same impact without a HOF QB to confuse the D.  All things considered it’s hard to pick against the Cowboys here, I will take Dallas by 5.

Pittsburgh

M: So that leaves the Cowboys at 9-4 to you and 8-5 to me as they come back home to play the Steelers.  The last time we saw them, they Tebow’d right out of the playoffs.  Now Pittsburgh was the opposite of the Falcons/Bengals as they only lost to playoff teams last year.  Outside of the opening week drubbing and the 49ers game where Ben was hobbled, Pittsburgh only lost to the Texans by a touchdown, the Ravens by a field goal and the Broncos in that overtime.  This team was sneaky-good last year and they do not play down to their competition.  However I think this will be that one Romo game where he throws for 400 and the Cowboys beat a better team, so I’ll take Dallas by a field goal.

B: This game would have been much more favorable for the Cowboys if it fell in the first half of the season. Max Starks, Casey Hampton and Rashard Mendenhall each tore an ACL late in the season, this could lead to three fresh starters coming back late in the season. The PITT D is aging, but it is still a formidable opponent against the Cowboys pass-happy offense. I agree with this being a close game and the victor, but not the OT…. Steelers by 10 utilizing a late score.

 New Orleans

M: Alright, 9-5 for you, 8-6 for me as the Cowboys play their last home game against the Saints.  This game is up there with the Chicago game as probably the two toughest to get a gauge on.  The Saints will be without Payton for sure, maybe even a few players for the first part of the season.  It’s tough to get a read on how they will play without Sean Payton calling the plays and if it’s more of his tactician abilities or Drew Brees’ passing abilities.  Nevertheless, the Saints are losing a lot at wide receiver and their defense has always been suspect.  The Cowboys always play them well, such as the year they won the Super Bowl and Dallas gave them their first loss.  So as it stands now, I’m going to have to pick the Cowboys to win this one in another shootout.  However this could easily change should Drew Brees have an “eff-you” type season and break his year-old passing record.

B: I can’t quite put my finger on why but I LOVE the cowboys here. Not sure if it will be a frustrated Drew Brees with no coaching backbone/depleted WR core or the shotty D. Even in 2010, amidst a 6 win season, Dallas was one bone head fumble away from victory. This will be a spring board into the playoffs for Dallas, as NO falters to a mediocre record. Dallas will frustrate Brees all day and dismember the suspect Saints D.

@ Washington

M: A lot of enthusiasm for that one eh? Well you’ve got Dallas at 10-5 and I have them at 9-6 heading into the last game of the season.  In your eyes, they will (most likely) have already made the playoffs, while I still think they will be fighting for a spot.  With that said, I think they lose this one.  Something always goes wrong in Washington, whether it’s Tashard Choice fumbling, or that weird game last year that should not have been that close but Rex Grossman though he was playing in Gainesville.  I think RG III will have progressed and be ready for a breakout game as it will probably be a nationally televised one.  So I’m going to have to take the Redskins, on some fluky final drive, by a field goal.

B: I’m going to agree with you on the result, Cowboys lose another late December game. However, this time it won’t matter so much as they already have their seeding locked up for the following week. The cowboys come out and play well but let this one go. RGIII has a big game, but is continually frustrated by the Dallas pass rush. Washington wins it after a sloppy Dallas 2^nd half…. 23-16

M: So the final tally is 10-6 for you and 9-7 for me.  Obviously it is ridiculously early to even get a good feel for how it will go, but in my mind, there are 4 easy wins, 4 definite losses and 8 toss-up games.  So unless the stars align and they Cowboys have a deep and good draft class combined with a string of health, I’m thinking it’s going to be another 8-8 or 9-7 campaign and just miss out on the playoffs.

B:  I have the cowboys making the playoffs as the first wild card. I could see them stealing a playoff win, but I no way expect it. It would take a favorable first round matchup in order for them to advance.  A playoff run, such as the one I am predicting, will require a healthy roster and a matured Dez Bryant.