5. Who will get the majority of the starts in Center Field?
Nelson Cruz is penned into the right field spot, but who starts in left and center are a daily question facing the Rangers. Last year, Hamilton, Borbon, Gentry and Murphy all made starts in center, with all but Borbon starting in left as well. Of the 3, Murphy is the biggest lock for the roster and lineup as he was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball after the All-Star break last season. Gentry had the other spot sewn up before the spring, but Julio has impressed while Gentry has struggled a little bit. Borbon has hit .323 and shown some pop with a homer and Gentry has struggled at .136 as well as battle nagging injuries.
What it first will come down to is whether Texas keeps four or five outfielders. I think the bullpen situation will dictate it as the club decides between a 7 or 8 man pen. My guess is that they will keep all give outfielders as it gives them numerous more lineup possibilities to play matchups well and divvy up getting guys days off.
So with that said, all 5 will be on the roster opening day, but who will be the starters in left and center? Hamilton is one of the better fielding outfielders in baseball, but he also gets injured being this great fielder. The team has leaned toward keeping him in left to try and decrease the chance of injury, but if they want the best bat in the lineup that would leave Murphy in center, where he is somewhat of a liability.
I think the team will want Murphy’s bat in the lineup on opening day, and give Hamilton the start in center. However, I think he will start the majority of the season in left and Murphy at DH, with Young at first base. This leaves Borbon and Gentry to battle for the center field starts, which with the way the spring has gone I will give the edge to the resurgent Borbon.
4. Does Joe Nathan still have the stuff to be an elite closer?
The 37-year old Nathan will start the season as the Rangers’ closer, but some are wary of if he still has the same stuff that led him to be the all-time leader in saves for the Twins. He had Tommy John surgery in 2010, but was able to make a comeback last season. He pitched in 48 games and had 14 saves out of 17 chances which is a good rate. However, he only had 43 strikeouts in those 44.2 innings and an ERA near 5. Now it could just have been rust coming off the injury (he was on the DL again for a couple weeks due to soreness) but it also could have been a sign of things to come.
What it comes down to is the Rangers took a low-risk chance on a guy who had 47 saves in 52 opportunities just 3 seasons ago. Now he did have the TJ surgery, but many have come back just as strong with less of an injury weakness afterward. He also hasn’t looked good in the spring, with an ERA of 13.50 and two blown saves, but I think Wash will still give him the nod to start the season as the closer. The worst that happens is he blows a couple and either Alexi Ogando or Mike Adams gets the job, two more than capable guys.
My expectation is that the spring is just Nathan getting into the groove. He’s been in the league for 11 years so he knows that he doesn’t have to get all geared up for every spring appearance. I think that once he gets out on the mound for his first save opportunity in the opening weekend, we will see the Nathan of 2009 and he will have a solid season. Even if he doesn’t, there could be worst problems than having Alexi Ogando to close out games.
3. Can the Rangers stay healthy?
I probably should adjust this to can the Rangers’ outfielders stay healthy, as the rest of the roster is as deep as it gets. The infield has Michael Young to play all four spots along with 2 quality catchers, there are two pitchers who have won 14+ games as starters in the bullpen, but the outfield is a different story.
Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz missed a combined 79 games last year. While there are capable backup outfielders (Borbon, Gentry, Murphy) the Texas lineup needs its big bats in the middle. You just have to look back at the playoffs where Cruz carried the team through the Detroit series and Hamilton kept them in the World Series. Whether Hambone is playing left or center, there are chances of him diving into the wall and missing extended time: it’s just how he plays.
Adrian Beltre also missed almost 40 games last year as well. Michael Young can fill in at 3rd base but the drop-off from Beltre’s bat to either Torrealba or one of the extra outfielders is huge. There’s also the drop-off in defense from the Gold Glove winning Beltre to the aging Young.
If any of these guys miss extended time then the Rangers could be in trouble against the likes of the Angels with that excellent pitching staff. If Texas is going to stay with Anaheim then they will need their lineup fully loaded. Hitting will always be the Rangers strength, and if they don’t have their three elite power hitters, then that strength is in jeopardy.
2. Which left-hander (if any) makes the bullpen?
There are 23 roster spots that are set, with the last two being still up in the air. One of the extra spots might go to a fifth outfielder and the last spot will be an extra bullpen arm. The moving of Ogando back to a setup role with the signing of Joe Nathan and trade for Mike Adams last year has solidified the one weakness on the team into a strength. However, all of the aforementioned as well as the other established relief pitchers are right-handed.
Ron Washington said on the Hardline the other day that he will go with a complete righty-bullpen if those are the best players. He’s not worried about which side the ball comes from, just what happens when it crosses the plate. Along with Ogando, Nathan and Adams will be Scott Feldman as a long guy, set-up man Mark Lowe and the sidearm Japanese righty Yoshinori Tateyama. Koji Uehara had the other spot but he has continued his disturbing trend of letting guys hit the ball really, really far. In five innings this spring he has given up 10 runs, 3 home runs and an opposing batting average .400. That all amounts to an ERA of 16.88. If the Rangers have lost faith in him then they may make a move to one of the following:
Ben Snyder, LHP: Ben Snyder has had the best spring of any left hander in the pen. The 26-year old out of Ball State has gone 5 appearances with 5 and a third thrown, no runs and an opponent’s average of 0.063. Though relatively unknown (he doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page) and a small sample size, Wash has liked what he’s seen and I think we will see him at some point before September call-ups.
Michael Kirkman, LHP: The only left hander with experience with the Rangers, Kirkman hasn’t impressed this spring. He has an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.44. I think if the Rangers go with an 8-man pen or leave Uehara of the roster, Kirkman will start the season on the 25-man.
Robert Ross, LHP: Though he only got to AA Frisco last year, Ross was impressive with a 2.34 ERA and more importantly an opposing left handed batting average of .167. Though he was a starter last season, he was worked from the pen in the Spring and impressed with no earned runs and only 3 hits compared to 7 strikeouts for a WHIP of 0.60. He’s probably not quite ready, but should the Rangers want to make him a reliever for good he could be up around mid-season.
Mark Hamburger, RHP: Should the Rangers decide for just a different right hander than Uehara they will probably go with Hamburger who spent some time in the Bigs last season. He hasn’t been that impressive in the spring with a 4.50 ERA, but he has more experience than any of the other relievers in camp vying for the spot.
So when it is all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wash gives Uehara one more shot and he still might be the last guy in, but it may be by default since none of the left handers are established major leaguers. He will have a short leash though and look for one of the three lefties to come up, whichever is having the best season in the minors. My guess will be Snyder as his stuff has looked the most dynamic.
1. How will Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish transition into the starting rotation?
Ever since he was in the minors, Feliz was being groomed to be a top of the rotation guy. Ever since he started playing professionally at age 18, Darvish has been a top of the rotation guy. Now with both in a major league starting rotation, can they live up to the hype and billing?
Feliz was a starter throughout the minor leagues until Texas transitioned him into a reliever role in the playoff push of the 2009 season. He then set the rookie record for saves in a season in 2010 so there was no rush to plug him into a solid rotation. Now that he has matured and developed his secondary pitches, the club feels it’s time (pun intended) for Feliz to get a shot starting. His spring has been unspectacular but not especially bad (4.50 ERA, .290 opponent’s average and only 7 K’s in 9 innings) but it has showcased his abilities to use his other pitches. This will be the key factor for Nefti, as before he could just overpower with his fast ball. Now that guys will see him 2-3 times in a single game, he will have to use his off-speed stuff to get outs.
The other factor that could hamper Feliz is his mental state after game si-… I still need time before I can talk about that.
Darvish has come to the U.S. as the most hyped Japanese star ever. What he also brings is the most Major League body physically of any of the Japanes hurlers. While guys like Tateyama, Uehara and Dice-K all are about 5 foot 10, Darvish is an imposing 6’5’’. His track record in Japan is pretty ridiculous: 93-38, 18 shutouts, 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 1,259 strikeouts in 1,268 innings. Last year alone he set career best marks of ERA (1.44), WHIP (0.83), and strikeouts (276). What he will have to get used to is the depth of the lineups in the majors compared to his Japanese League as well as pitching on 4 days rest instead of five. So far he has been able to handle the new league only giving up an ERA of 3.00 with an opponent’s average of .207 and 10 strikeouts in 9 innings.
Both of these guys have the physical attributes, secondary pitches, and high-90’s heat to be Ace pitchers in the Bigs. What gives these two an advantage is that they are not being asked to be the top of the rotation guy right off the bat. Colby Lewis can maintain that role for the season as the 25 year old Darvish and 23 year old Feliz mature and develop without as much pressure. They both will have their innings closely monitored (especially Feliz who has already felt shoulder tightness) but I will make a bold sports promise that both will win more than 10 games and finish above .500.
The health, back of the bullpen and last outfielder spot questions are problems facing every team going into every season in Major League Baseball. So if the only real question is how your team’s All-Star closer switches into a starting role for an All-Star starting pitcher who goes back to the bullpen, or how the best pitcher in Japanese history transitions to the U.S. then you’re team is in pretty good shape.
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