Every year I have to reiterate the same point: I hate the
people that try to make a “pick” on the Super Bowl but do not actually take a
stance. If you are going to go out of your way to have your selection for the
winner of the game published in any capacity then please actually pick a team.
Nevertheless, it’s the same story every year. “I think that
Carolina will blow them out by four touchdowns… but I also think that Peyton
good make it a close game and pull out the win in the last minute.” Is that
making a prediction or being a waffler?
Anyone can say that “so-and-so might win but it will be a
close game that could go either way.” Every single game in the NFL can go
“either way.” The parity is so prevalent that the worst team in the league can
beat the best team in the league at least 2 or 3 out of 10 times.
So with that said, I am going to make a full game analysis
and decide on which team I am predicting to win and whether or not the spread
will be covered (another massive pet peeve of mine, the “I think this team will
win, but the other will cover” when it’s less than a touchdown spread).
Super Bowl L Preview
This game is getting predominantly compared to the
Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl since you have the Peyton Manning-led Denver team
against a young squad led by a dual-threat quarterback with a (seemingly)
staunch defense headed by a brash cornerback.
However, I see it completely differently. That Denver team
did not have the dominant, league-leading defense that this year’s version
fields. The combination of Vonn Miller and Demarcus Ware rushing the passer is
unmatched in the NFL at this moment. Aqib Talib has added a shutdown corner to
the mix, and the linebackers that were young and inexperienced in 2014 are now
solid producers.
The offense is different as well. The 2014 Broncos had
Peyton Manning’s all-time single season record for yards and touchdowns at the
helm. This year’s group is led by the noodle-armed version of the greatest
quarterback of all time (in my opinion) who threw significantly more
interceptions than touchdowns in his brief season.
The Panthers are not exactly what that Seattle team played
as either. Cam Newton and Russell Wilson play a similar style, but Cam still
provides more of a bruising, goal-line type running game while Wilson gave the
back-breaking scrambles. The Carolina defense gets a bit over-valued because it
has stars.
Yes, the Panthers gave up the fewest points in the league,
but the offenses they faced had quite a bit to do with that. Luke Kuechly is
dominant and Josh Norman has developed into an elite corner. However I am not
sold on their pass rush (especially without Jared Allen) and the rest of the
secondary is nowhere near what the Legion of Boom brought to the table.
When Denver Has the
Ball:
Who would have thought that Peyton Manning would be at the
helm of a ball-control, more western than west coast style offense with a
plethora of short screens and outs to complement the running game? Still, that
is where we are, and he has actually looked quite proficient in this role the
past couple of playoff games.
Yes, Peyton got benched in the middle of the season, but I
think that injury had a lot to do with it. The mistakes he was making early in
the year have not shown up in the playoffs. The best way to make him make those
mistakes is a ferocious pass rush, sort of like how Kansas City did in the game
that got Manning “benched”. That is something I really do not see with this
Panthers team.
C.J. Anderson has the bad stigma of being one of the most
over-valued and over-hyped players in Fantasy Football history (however if you
listened to my advice, he was not on a single one of your teams.) However, the
combination of him and Ronnie Hillman is a solid 1-2 punch running behind a
deceivingly good run-blocking offensive line. That line is led by the
super-human strength of former Red Raider Louis Vasquez and will give Luke
Kuechly and Thomas Davis’ broken arm all they can handle.
The real problem I see with the Broncos offense is the Red
Zone. They have had their issues previously and now they face one of the best
Red Zone defenses in the league. In his entire career Peyton Manning has had
specific roles for players in his offense. The main target (Marvin
Harrison/Reggie Wayne, Demaryius Thomas), the secondary option (Reggie Wayne,
Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders), the slot third option (Brandon Stokley, Anthony
Gonzalez, Wes Welker) and a solid, two-way pass catching tight end (Dallas
Clark, Julius Thomas).
I see two of those options having massive holes: the third
option and tight end. Cody Latimer and the other Broncos’ wide-outs outside of
Thomas/Sanders cannot fill that void. Denver traded for Vernon Davis to
complement Owen Daniels, but I don’t see either of them being able to get away
from Kuechly. That leads me to believe that the Broncos will have even more Red
Zone troubles.
More importantly, Carolina has had the ability to get big,
early leads on almost every opponent recently. If that goes down on Sunday,
then Peyton will have to play come-from-behind football, which is not his forte
anymore. If that does happen and Manning has to force the ball downfield a
little bit, then the ball-hawking secondary for Carolina is in its best
situation and continues to force turnovers at its league-leading level.
When Carolina Has the
Ball:
Carolina not only led the league in points allowed, but
scored the most points as well. Cam Newton has taken a few major strides in
both passing and decision making over the past year, turning himself into one
of the upper-echelon guys at the position. The most impressive part is he has
done this without his best weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, all season.
Newton has been throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Philly
Brown, Devin Funchess and Jericho Cotchery at the wide receiver position, yet
still threw for 35 touchdowns. The biggest reason has been Greg Olsen. Olsen
has become the second best tight end in the league, and I would make a strong
case that I would take 16 games of Olsen over 12 games of Gronk every year.
The rushing game has been just as impressive as Carolina has
now rushed for more than 100 yards in 31 straight games. Jonathan Stewart has
made the most of his opportunity as a bell-cow type running back, and seems to
be fully healthy. The stable behind him of Cameron Artis-Payne, Mike Tolbert
and Fozzy Whitaker provide good change of pace options along with depth to help
progress their running game.
Cam Newton is the head of all of this, with his amazing
talents inside the 10-yard line to punch it in for the six. He has picked his
spots at the perfect times, and has shed the previous hankering for taking off
as soon as the pocket collapses at all.
With all that said, the Denver defense is getting the least
credit of any league-best defense to make it to the Super Bowl. This team lead
the league in sacks, and was not far behind Carolina in points allowed while
allowing the fewest yards per game of any team in the league. It is nearly
impossible to run the ball on this team and I think they will continue that
while forcing the Panthers to throw the ball downfield.
So it seems like this might be a spot for Olsen to shine as
the linebackers are stacking the box to stop the run. However, the Broncos have both starting
safeties back, and healthy which I figure one will be on Olsen at all times.
This will put the emphasis clearly on the shaky hands of the Carolina receiving
corps.
Special Teams:
A quick word about special teams after they decided the AFC
Championship game: Brandon McManus will have to be a factor for Denver to win.
He will be called upon to make some long field goals and it will be imperative
that both him and Britton Colquitt keep the ball away from Ted Ginn.
Now should Ted Ginn get his hands on a couple of returns,
all of a sudden this game could look like a couple of years ago when Percy Harvin
had the highlight of his career against this Denver team.
The Pick
What it comes down to is that I think Carolina will get
ahead early. Peyton will know to not make mistakes early on as they have killed
him in Super Bowls past, meaning the Panthers will have the opportunity to go
for the early kill shots. I see them getting up double digits early and forcing
Manning into bad situations. Manning, in bad situations, with two of his four
main options not fulfilled, and a noodle arm is bad news.
Cam Newton will take the early shots down the field and I
think his inspiration and leadership has his receivers in the right mindset to
make the big plays. Cam Newton seems like a near lock for the MVP should
Carolina win, but we will get to prop bets in a second. As much as it pains me
to say it, I have to think Manning goes out to pasture as a loser. Carolina 27
– Denver 17
SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
These props are in no particular order as I am just going down the list of nearly 400.
Alternate Point
Spread: Panthers -17.5, +475
I think Carolina is going to get up early and this could
turn into more of a blowout than even I expect. The odds are strong here
getting nearly 5 to 1 on your money.
*Will either team
score 3 straight times? Yes, -175
One of my favorites every year, but especially this year as
Carolina could get out to an early 13-0 lead with three scores, or Denver will
have three scores in a row to come back from a big deficit.
Total QB Sacks for
both teams: OVER 5.0, +110
The Broncos average over three a game and Carolina averages
two. Throw in the fact that Carolina has not seen a pass rush as strong as
these two (Miller/Ware), and Peyton will take a few sacks to avoid
fumbles/interceptions and I love this number.
Shortest TD of game:
OVER 1.5 yards, EVEN
You basically need a pass interference in the end zone to
get less than a yard with these two, so I will take my chances at even money.
*Will Peyton Manning
throw an interception? Yes, -220
Trust me, it is worth the vig. He has not thrown one in the
playoffs yet, but as I said, I see it as Denver playing come from behind and
him forcing throws.
*Team to Score first?
Panthers, -140
As I said, you need to go with how you see the game flowing,
and I think the Panthers get out to an early lead.
Total Field Goals
made, both teams: OVER 3.5, +105
I don’t see the Broncos solving the Red Zone issues, so this
seems safe.
Longest TD of the
Game: OVER 43.5 yards, -110
I think one of the Panthers’ receivers gets loose for a big
one, but no clue which one. If you have a good hunch, they would be a good bet
for over yards, touchdown scored, and MVP consideration.
Will the Panthers
score a TD in the first quarter? Yes, +120
Once again, I like them to get out to an early lead.
*Total interceptions,
both teams: OVER 1.5, -230
The vig is super high, but Peyton may pass this number by
himself in the second half.
Total number of
players to have a pass attempt: OVER 2.5, +175
You have a fragile, old quarterback against a signal caller
who runs more than almost any other quarterback. Very likely a backup plays,
and even more likely a trick play happens.
*Will Cam Newton
score a TD? Yes, +140
He will want to do his dance if they get close, so you can
guarantee he calls his own number.
Total
Rushing+Receiving yards for Fozzy Whitaker: OVER 5.5, -110
Look for Carolina to split touches with their platoon of
backs and this can be done in one touch.
Total number of
Panthers with a rush attempt: OVER 4.5, +130
Goes with the last prop.
*Will the Panthers
get a rushing touchdown: Yes, -200
This seems too easy and too low of a number… maybe a sucker
bet.
Total tackles Luke
Kuechly: OVER 8.5, -110
Denver will try to establish the run early before throwing
short, meaning Kuechly will get a lot of chances.
Total receptions for
Emmanuel Sanders: OVER 5.0, -110
With Norman on Thomas, Sanders should get a lot of looks.
Total points for
Brandon McManus: OVER 7.5, -110
Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.
*Total field goals
for Brandon McManus: OVER 1.5, -110
Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.
Total tackles for Von
Miller (sacks not included): UNDER 3.5, -110
Miller is not a strong run defender, so this could come down
to whether certain plays are “sacks” or “rushes”.
*More Points: Brandon
McManus +0.5 over Graham Gano, +120
Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.
Who will have more:
Total score of the first half -1.5 over Lakers/Spurs margin of victory, -110
Like I said, Panthers up early, more points in the first
half.
Stephen Curry 3-Point
field goals made PK over Greg Olsen receptions, +110
Olsen’s over/under is at 5, and Stephen made 7 in the first
quarter the other night, on pace for almost 6 a game.
Demarcus Cousins points+rebounds
-6.5 over Owen Daniels receiving yards, -110
Cousins will go off against the Celtics, and Daniels might
have a lot of Luke Kuechly in his way.
Panthers/Broncos FG’s
Made +0.5 over DeAndre Jordan made FT’s, +120
He’s shooting well under 50% so he will have to take more
than 11 or 12 to come close to the amount of field goals I see made.
Denver Sacks -0.5
over Rory McIlroy holes over par, +150
This is the Dubai Desert Classic where McIlroy should have a
strong score. I think Denver gets four or five sacks, so this should be easy.
Number of Panthers
with Rushing Attempt PK over Goals in Manchester United/Chelsea game, -120
Like I said previously, I think five different Panthers
could get a rush, and I don’t see that many goals in the premiership game.
*Panthers/Broncos
FG’s made +0.5 over Rounds in Hendricks/Thompson fight, -110
I think Hendricks could end that fast, and even if the fight
goes the distance, you would need four field goals or less.
MVP of Super Bowl 50:
*Cam Newton 5/7
It’s a good hedge bet.
Luke Kuechly 25/1
He has had plenty of pick sixes lately, and one here could
do the trick. At these odds, I love it.
Ted Ginn 25/1
One deep touchdown and a couple of really good returns is
worth the long shot.
Devin Funchess 100/1
Say he gets on the receiving end of a couple of the big
plays the Panthers will have to throw… these odds are worth a very small bet.
Vonn Miller 25/1;
Demarcus Ware 100/1
Worth a shot to hedge the Carolina bet. One of them will
have to dominate to make this game close.
The ten props with the * next to them are my best bets.
Another strong, safe bet is a two-team, 7-point teaser, Carolina +1.5 and UNDER 53. Good hunting!
