On the doorstep of
August, I thought it would be time to start previewing the upcoming football
season. I figured it would be best to
work through the college ranks first, starting with the conference least likely
to get a representative in the new playoffs: the Big Ten.
Before I get to
the Midwest, I would like to say how exciting it is to have an actual playoff
to look forward to. Is it perfect? No, it is actually far from an end product. I think it will ultimately need to be an
8-team bracket with the five conference winners and the next three best
teams. I also think that the BCS should
be a factor in deciding the playoff participants… at least more of a factor
than someone who has never played, coached, or administrated the game in any
sort of way (I’m looking at you Condoleezza Rice). Nevertheless, it is a start and the fifth
best team in the nation has much less of an argument for inclusion than the
third best team.
Bottom of the Barrel-Neither one of these teams has much hope
for a bowl.
Rutgers
Scarlet Knights, 4-8
Purdue
Boilermakers, 3-9
The Boilermakers
are coming off an awful 1-11 season that included zero wins against FBS
teams. The non-conference schedule has a
couple of more easily winnable games, but they get no favors within the Big Ten. The only conference contests where they have
a chance are on the road and Purdue has not won away from home since November
17th, 2012. While they should
be better in in Coach Hazell’s second year with the program, there is not a
bowl in the picture just yet.
Rutgers comes over
from the AAC and gets thrown right into the fire playing six of the top seven
teams in the conference. They also have
a difficult non-conference game to open the season across the country in
Seattle against Washington State. Quarterback
Gary Nova is back for his senior year, but he will have to control the ball
better (14 interceptions in 10 games last year) against significantly better
defenses.
The Logjam-Middle- Don’t expect any of these teams to contend for
a conference title.
Nebraska
Cornhuskers, 7-5
Northwestern
Wildcats, 7-5
Minnesota
Golden Gophers, 5-7
Maryland
Terrapins, 5-7
Indiana
Hoosiers, 5-7
Illinois
Fighting Illini, 5-7
These teams are
all about the same level of talent and every one of the six could beat each
other on the right day. Illinois will be
starting Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback, and he will have
three years of eligibility left. He
brings a more prototypical style of play as opposed the recently graduated
Nathan Scheelhaase, but the rest of the team is still a step behind in
talent. There are a couple of attainable
conference wins with home games against Purdue and Minnesota, but not much
beyond that.
Indiana had one of
the surprisingly prolific offenses of 2013, scoring 28 or more points in all
but two of their games. They crossed the
40-point barrier six times, surpassed 50 points twice and put up 73 in their
season opener. The Hoosiers return Nate
Sudfield at quarterback who will not have to split snaps for the first time in his
career with Tre Roberson transferring.
He will have one of the most explosive backs in the
nation next to him in Tevin Coleman. In
Coleman’s sophomore year he nearly had 1,000 yards rushing while averaging a
ridiculous 7.3 yards a carry. With a
full workload he could lead the conference in rushing.
Maryland is the
other newcomer to the Big Ten and they are giving themselves no favors with a
competitive non-conference schedule including South Florida, West Virginia, and
Syracuse. The Terrapins probably have
more swing games than any other team in the league with up to 10 games being
toss-ups. C. J. Brown returns behind
center and his main goal will be to get the ball to Stefon Diggs as much as possible. Andre Monroe will lead the defense after
posting a double-digit sack total last year.
Maryland may not make a bowl, but Randy Edsell is good for one big upset
in a game that no one gives them much of a chance.
Minnesota had an
eventful offseason with quarterback Phillip Nelson transferring before getting
arrested after a grizzly altercation.
Mitch Leidner looks to have the inside track at quarterback as the only
person on the roster with a pass attempt.
Either way, the defense is the strength of the team with Theiran Cockran
ready to step out of Ra’Shede Hageman’s shadow.
The 6’6’’ defensive end will be the key cog in a defense that only gave
up more than 24 points twice last season.
I have
Northwestern as the first team to make a bowl in this Big Ten preview, but like
I said earlier almost any one of the projected 5-win teams could swing the
pendulum the other way and switch with the Wildcats. NU started strong last year getting into the
polls before losing seven straight games and becoming ineligible for a
bowl. Quarterback Trevor Siemian ended
last season on quite a high note throwing for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also returns both of his top receivers as
well as getting to avoid both Ohio State and Michigan State.
Nebraska has a
weird fluke in their conference schedule where the projected top-4 teams in the
conference that they play are all on the road, and the bottom-4 projected teams
all go to Lincoln. In the NFL, that
would be good to guarantee your home wins.
However, in college that is a death sentence for high hopes as the
home-field advantages are so much stronger.
Taylor Martinez is gone after what seemed like a decade running the
Huskers’ offense. In his place will be
Tommy Armstrong Jr., who filled in last year for an injured Martinez and had a
7-1 record as a starter. Armstrong will
have 1,800-yard rusher and amateur
hurdler Ameer Abdullah back to help ease the transition. The defense will be led by DE Randy Gregory
who looks to get the famed black-shirts back to their elite level of play.
The Suspended- This team is prohibited from post-season
competition but could spoil other teams’ aspirations
Penn State
Nittany Lions, 9-3
Penn State is
ineligible for post-season play from the Sandusky scandal, and it is a shame
that the kids there now are getting punished for what the previous coaching
regime did. James Franklin takes over
after turning Vanderbilt around, and he has the likely top quarterback of 2016
Christian Hackenberg starting his sophomore season. Hackenberg had a strong true freshman season
throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, 20 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. He ended the season especially convincingly
by upsetting Wisconsin (on the road) while throwing for 339 yards and 4
touchdowns. The Nittany Lions could play
spoiler getting both Michigan State and Ohio State at home.
The Outside Playoff Contenders- I do not think any of these
teams will make the first playoff, but should one get hot and run the table
they would definitely get in.
Ohio State Buckeyes, 11-1
Iowa Hawkeyes, 11-1
Michigan State
Spartans, 10-2
Wisconsin Badgers, 10-2
Michigan Wolverines, 8-4
Last year I fell
for the Michigan aura and it bit my prediction in the butt. I thought Devin Gardner was ready to take the
leap, yet here we are a year later and he is in a battle to keep his job. Gardner (or Shane Morris should he win the
job) returns Devin Funchess as a huge target with a massive catch radius. If this Wolverines team is going to make a
run it will be based on the strength of their experienced defense. Jake Ryan runs the D at middle linebacker,
and Blake Countess led the conference in interceptions last year as a
sophomore. The real kicker is the
schedule: if Michigan can win in South
Bend against Notre Dame, they will almost certainly be 6-0 going into a home
game against Penn St. and a road game at Michigan St. … But I’m not falling for
that again. Give me 8 wins with an
awfully ugly loss to get them to 8-4.
Wisconsin
loves the new division split, as they draw the two new teams, Maryland and
Rutgers from the East Division. That
means they avoid Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan. They do open the season against LSU and it is
in Houston making it basically an LSU home game. I do not think that they can pull that one
off, but if they do they could be a dangerous bet to run the table. Melvin Gordon is back and by himself in the
backfield after gaining over 1,600 yards on the ground last year with an outrageous
8.1 yards per carry. The defense is as
strong as always, and Joel Stave knows how to protect the ball and get it to
his running backs.
Michigan
State is probably the best team in the conference, but they just happen to have
the hardest schedule. A road trip to
Eugene to face Oregon seems almost too daunting of an early-season task to overcome. They get Ohio State at home, but have to go
to Happy Valley to end the season against Penn St. The Spartans do return the best defense north
of the Gulf Coast states, with future NFL players on every level including
Shilique Calhoun (3 defensive TD’s last season) rushing the passer, and Trae
Waynes and Kurtis Drummond ball
hawking in the secondary. On
offense, both Connor Cook (2,755 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT in 2013) and Jeremy
Langford (1,338 yards, 17 TD, 5.0 Avg. 2013) are back in the backfield with
Cook ending the season throwing for more than 300 yards in back to back
games. He won’t be asked to do it a lot,
but it has to be promising to see that he can handle a big load if needed.
Iowa is always a
team that flies under the radar. Do you
know what should not be under the radar?
Offensive tackle Brandon
Schreff’s hang-clean. Quite
ridiculous. On the other side of the
line, Carl Davis is a solid NFL prospect that will lead a steadfast
defense. The biggest factor that could
springboard Iowa toward Big Ten contention: the schedule. The Hawkeyes do not play a team that won more
than 7 games last year until game 11, and then they get both Wisconsin and
Nebraska at home. That means they avoid
Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan. Now they did lose to Northern Iowa to start
last season, but after that their only losses were to top-14 teams. I think Iowa will keep that bad loss last
year in mind and nearly run the table.
As good as the
Michigan State defense is, the best position group on that side in the Big Ten
is the Ohio State defensive line. Urban
Meyer has built his front four strong (just like in his Florida days) with Noah
Spence, Michael Bennett and Joey Bosa wreaking havoc in opponents’
backfields. On offense, Braxton Miller
is back for his senior year and what will be his last chance to live up to his
hype coming into school. Don’t get me
wrong, he has been quite
good the past couple of seasons posting a 22-2 record, but it is not like
he is winning these games by himself nor was the competition that strong. As it stands now, he would be a late-round
pick (if at all) and will need to show an increase in accuracy and arm strength
to move up. The schedule is pretty
threatening with Virginia Tech early in the year and road trips to both
Michigan State and Penn State. I think
the Hokies will be down after losing a ton on offense, and the Buckeyes should
be able to at least split the two road conference games.
